Aleiman Cruz — OGILVIE

Aleiman Cruz P FCL Tigers

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 176 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%22.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	6	3	0	0	50%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	6	3	0	0	50%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	6	3	0	0	50%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	5	45	195	51	19	5	36%	3.2	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	2.5%	3.00	4.48	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	5	45	195	51	19	5	36%	3.2	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	2.5%	3.00	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	DET	12	5	39	167	44	16	3	42%	3.3	26.3%	9.6%	16.8%	1.8%	2.06	3.07	—
2026	20	A RAW	DET	2	0	6	28	7	3	2	0%	2.9	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	7.1%	9.53	6.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	44	0	46	195	46	19	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	49	205	50	18	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.16	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	50	213	53	18	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.8%	4.12	4.03	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	49	0	52	218	55	18	6	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.4%	17.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.94	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	52	221	57	18	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	8.2%	17.5%	2.8%	3.94	3.89	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	52	221	57	18	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	2.8%	3.89	3.86	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	49	0	52	217	56	18	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	2.9%	3.90	3.90	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	22	0	23	97	23	9	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.32	4.27	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	33	0	35	148	36	13	4	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	41	0	43	182	45	16	5	0%	1.0	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.05	3.96	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	44	0	46	194	49	16	5	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.4%	17.0%	2.7%	3.95	3.87	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	46	0	48	203	52	17	5	0%	1.0	25.8%	8.2%	17.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.82	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	47	0	49	207	54	17	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	2.7%	3.82	3.79	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	47	0	49	207	54	17	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.83	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		279	0	292	1235	312	105	34	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.97	3.54	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	72	23	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.97	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		16	6	47	201	38	23	5	38%	2.9	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.4%	2.87	4.32	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	26	200	855	161	99	21	38%	2.9	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.4%	2.87	4.32	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aleiman Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	22.9%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.17	24.2%	15.1%	145	-0.32	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	85
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	83
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	83
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	82
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	81
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	81
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	81
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	80
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	79
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	79
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	79
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	78
Adrián Martinez R 2017 · 4.30 FIP	20	SW	4.30	18.8%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	4.25	17.3%	7.6%	92	-0.05	2.02	526	78
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	78
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	78
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	78
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	78
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	78
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	77
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	48	25.0%	8.7%	1.11	4.10
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35