Luis Reyes — OGILVIE

Luis Reyes P DSL Astros Orange

+0.1 WAR

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2031

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.0%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.2%

IP31

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2031

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	14	5	37	176	27	33	1	10.4%	23.4%	0.4%	5.35	5.42	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	—	31	—	31	133	29	14	4	22.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	20	MLB	—	33	—	33	139	31	14	4	22.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.40	+0.2
2028	21	MLB	—	35	—	35	146	34	14	4	23.0%	9.5%	2.8%	4.34	4.27	+0.3
2029	22	MLB	—	36	—	36	153	37	14	4	24.0%	8.9%	2.7%	4.19	4.09	+0.4
2030	23	MLB	—	38	—	38	159	39	14	4	24.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.05	3.96	+0.4
2031	24	MLB	—	39	—	39	163	41	14	4	25.2%	8.3%	2.7%	3.94	3.87	+0.5
2032	25	MLB	—	39	—	39	165	42	14	4	25.6%	8.2%	2.6%	3.86	3.81	+0.5
2033	26	MLB	—	39	—	39	165	43	13	4	25.8%	8.1%	2.6%	3.82	3.79	+0.5
2034	27	MLB	—	39	—	39	164	42	13	4	25.8%	8.2%	2.7%	3.81	3.80	+0.5
2035	28	MLB	—	38	—	38	161	42	13	4	25.8%	8.2%	2.7%	3.82	3.83	+0.5
2036	29	MLB	—	37	—	37	157	40	13	4	25.6%	8.3%	2.7%	3.85	3.87	+0.5
2037	30	MLB	—	36	—	36	153	39	13	4	25.4%	8.4%	2.8%	3.90	3.93	+0.4
2038	31	MLB	—	35	—	35	147	37	13	4	25.2%	8.5%	2.9%	3.96	4.01	+0.4
2039	32	MLB	—	34	—	34	141	35	12	4	24.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.04	4.09	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			14	5	37	176	18	41	1	10.4%	23.4%	0.4%	5.35	5.42	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—			76	27	200	951	97	222	5	10.4%	23.4%	0.4%	5.35	5.42	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	22.0%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.25	23.2%	13.7%	104	-0.31	—	—	—
Denny Bentley L 2027 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	88
Javier Chacon L 2026 · 5.18 FIP	19	SU	5.18	22.5%	13.1%	4.2%	.295	4.62	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.56	4.55	135	87
Jagger Haynes L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	20	SU	4.27	19.7%	13.0%	2.2%	.303	5.33	18.5%	2.8%	214	+1.06	4.27	239	87
Ethan Lindow L 2025 · 4.33 FIP	18	SU	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.97	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.36	2.97	435	86
Pablo Aldonis L 2027 · 4.29 FIP	20	SU	4.29	20.7%	8.0%	3.5%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.65	1.89	108	86
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP	19	SU	3.57	20.4%	8.1%	2.1%	.324	3.35	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.22	3.11	312	86
Brock Selvidge L 2026 · 3.66 FIP	19	SU	3.66	19.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.321	3.80	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.14	3.08	330	86
Johan Simon L 2027 · 3.44 FIP	20	SU	3.44	19.8%	10.2%	1.3%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+1.06	3.44	123	86
Fabian Blanco L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	19	SU	4.28	18.8%	9.9%	2.8%	.368	4.05	16.9%	1.3%	74	-0.23	3.57	215	85
Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.34 FIP	19	SU	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.97	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.37	2.31	576	85
Yokelvin Reyes L 2026 · 4.03 FIP	19	SU	4.03	20.1%	12.8%	1.8%	.293	4.19	15.2%	3.6%	86	+0.16	3.50	140	85
Blake Townsend L 2027 · 3.97 FIP	20	SU	3.97	26.7%	11.2%	3.1%	.286	3.98	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.01	3.33	200	85
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2027 · 4.21 FIP	20	SW	4.21	20.7%	12.3%	2.4%	.271	5.98	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.77	4.21	128	83
Jay Groome L 2025 · 4.54 FIP	18	SU	4.54	21.6%	14.8%	2.5%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	420	83
Connor Curlis L 2028 · 3.49 FIP	21	SU	3.49	19.3%	10.8%	1.2%	.306	6.07	16.6%	4.6%	172	+2.58	3.49	309	83
James Gonzalez L 2025 · 3.47 FIP	18	SU	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	414	82
Ronnie Glenn L 2029 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.04	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.57	3.47	212	82
Taylor Hearn L 2028 · 3.97 FIP	21	SU	3.97	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.00	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.03	3.74	572	82
Deivi Diaz L 2026 · 3.73 FIP	19	SU	3.73	20.4%	11.6%	1.6%	.369	4.50	13.5%	-2.3%	57	+0.77	3.73	161	82
Ryan Rolison L 2028 · 3.88 FIP	21	SU	3.88	21.2%	9.2%	2.6%	.200	4.33	19.1%	11.5%	191	+0.45	3.86	327	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$6M