Sebastian Saenz

C DSL Phillies

Age 18 L/R ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKPHI	195	.287/.370/.365	1	9	38	—	.192/.265/.233
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBPHI	305	.220/.279/.292	2	8	63	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBPHI	85	.225/.287/.309	1	2	69	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBPHI	182	.229/.293/.323	2	5	74	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%75

Speed69

Whiff%67

Z-Con%58

wRC+45

wOBA38

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJuan Villavicencio (age 18) · Jose Escobar (age 18) · Derek Bernard (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .277 / .290

PA165

HR1

K%24

BB%6

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Phillies	—	195	167	48	8	1	1	16	32	6	9	0	287	370	365	736	78	338	16	8	328	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies	—	195	172	33	5	1	0	11	39	6	9	0	192	265	233	497	41	226	20	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies	—	195	172	33	5	1	0	11	39	6	9	0	192	265	233	497	41	239	20	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies	—	195	167	48	8	1	1	16	32	6	9	0	287	370	365	736	78	338	16	8	328	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies	—	195	176	33	5	1	0	11	39	6	9	0	188	265	227	492	40	226	20	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies	—	195	176	33	5	1	0	11	39	6	9	0	188	265	227	492	40	226	20	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	305	279	61	10	2	2	19	73	4	8	2	220	279	292	572	73	287	24	6	261	63	-14	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	248	226	50	8	2	2	16	59	4	7	2	224	286	307	593	83	289	24	6	270	69	-9	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2029	20	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	375	341	78	12	3	5	25	88	6	11	3	228	292	320	612	92	291	23	7	277	74	-12	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.4
2030	21	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	470	427	99	16	3	7	32	110	8	14	4	231	296	331	627	101	292	23	7	284	78	-12	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2031	22	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	520	470	110	18	3	9	36	121	9	15	5	234	299	341	640	108	293	23	7	289	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2032	23	MLB MLE	PHI	58%	520	471	111	18	3	10	36	120	8	15	5	236	302	349	651	114	294	23	7	293	85	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2033	24	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	520	471	111	18	3	10	36	120	8	15	5	237	303	354	657	116	295	23	7	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2034	25	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	520	471	111	18	3	10	36	120	8	15	5	238	304	357	660	119	295	23	7	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2035	26	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	520	471	112	18	3	11	36	120	8	15	5	238	304	358	662	120	295	23	7	298	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2036	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	520	471	111	18	3	10	36	121	8	15	5	237	303	356	659	119	294	23	7	296	86	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2037	28	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	520	471	111	18	3	10	36	122	8	15	5	235	301	351	652	116	293	23	7	293	85	-10	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2038	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	520	471	110	18	3	10	36	123	8	14	5	233	298	345	643	112	292	24	7	290	82	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2039	30	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	520	471	108	17	3	9	36	125	8	14	6	230	294	337	631	107	290	24	7	285	79	-13	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.6
2040	31	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	504	458	103	16	3	8	34	123	7	13	6	225	289	327	616	102	287	24	7	279	75	-15	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.2
2041	32	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	489	447	97	15	2	7	32	121	7	12	8	220	283	315	598	95	283	25	7	271	70	-18	-1	-4	+9	+11	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	85	79	18	3	1	1	5	20	1	2	1	225	287	309	596	85	289	24	6	271	69	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	182	165	37	6	1	2	12	43	3	5	2	229	293	323	616	94	291	24	7	279	74	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	255	232	54	8	2	4	17	60	4	8	2	232	297	335	632	103	292	24	7	286	78	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	22	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	294	267	63	10	2	5	20	68	5	9	3	235	300	346	646	111	293	23	7	291	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2032	23	MLB CTX	PHI	58%	299	271	64	10	2	6	21	69	5	9	3	237	303	354	657	117	294	23	7	296	85	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	24	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	296	268	64	10	2	6	21	68	5	9	3	239	304	359	663	120	295	23	7	298	86	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2034	25	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	295	267	64	10	2	6	21	68	5	9	3	239	305	362	667	123	295	23	7	299	87	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2035	26	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	294	267	64	10	2	6	20	68	5	9	3	240	305	364	669	124	295	23	7	300	87	-4	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2036	27	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	289	262	63	10	2	6	20	67	5	8	3	239	304	361	666	123	295	23	7	299	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2037	28	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	286	260	62	10	2	6	20	67	4	8	3	237	302	356	659	120	294	23	7	296	85	-5	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2038	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	278	253	60	9	2	6	19	66	4	8	3	234	299	350	649	116	292	24	7	292	82	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2039	30	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	274	249	58	9	2	5	19	66	4	7	3	231	296	341	637	111	290	24	7	287	79	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2040	31	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	285	260	59	9	2	5	19	69	4	7	4	227	290	331	622	105	287	24	7	281	75	-9	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2041	32	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	266	242	53	8	1	4	18	66	4	7	4	221	284	319	603	97	283	25	7	273	70	-10	-0	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3678	3342	783	122	25	68	252	865	58	105	40	234	299	347	646	113	295	24	7	291	79	-82	+5	-6	+66	+80	6.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	138	22	4	12	45	153	10	19	7	234	299	345	644	112	294	24	7	291	79	-15	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7126	6461	1488	238	42	119	484	1672	113	203	70	230	295	335	631	105	290	23	7	285	79	-161	+11	-10	+124	+150	11.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	136	22	4	11	44	153	10	19	6	231	295	338	633	107	291	24	7	285	79	-15	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ray Schalk'12-'29 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	11	177	238*	322*	355*	+111	+0	22.1	19.8
/162	664	1	19	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 18
#2Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.8	3,843	66	109	233	294	341	+69	+32	9.2	7.8
/162	664	11	19	+11.9	+5.5	1.6	pk7: 6
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sebastian Saenz (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	218/277/290	72	287	1	4	24%	6%	63	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	41→44	37→50	55	45	194/259/272	77	267	4	14	28%	8%	51	-2.2	178/254/255	77	256	5	12	30%	8%	47	-2.6	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→52	40	57→45	42	203/256/302	99	255	6	15	23%	5%	57	-1.8	219/288/315	96	285	8	12	24%	7%	72	-0.7	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Derek Bernard 2024 · A	18	43→46	40	54→50	47	206/274/303	97	275	7	16	26%	8%	65	-1.2	215/276/314	99	339	7	13	36%	7%	68	-1.0	218/283/320	102	353	8	12	38%	8%	68	-0.5
✕José Devers 2018 · A	18	41→49	37→45	54→50	42	197/260/270	73	264	3	15	26%	6%	52	-2.2	241/284/302	61	306	1	12	21%	4%	66	-1.1	226/281/333	107	274	7	6	19%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Welbyn Francisca 2024 · A	18	44→41	39→45	50→55	48	208/283/300	92	277	5	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	228/294/332	104	296	9	20	24%	8%	78	-0.3	225/294/339	114	289	12	24	25%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Antonio Pimentel 2024 · A	18	37→44	36→45	52→55	48	178/265/240	62	238	4	11	25%	8%	48	-2.5	190/269/267	77	245	4	19	22%	9%	55	-2.0	196/270/288	91	259	6	27	25%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Juan Centeno 2008 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	43	197/253/266	68	259	4	6	25%	6%	48	-2.5	199/258/259	60	256	3	6	22%	6%	48	-2.5	279/317/335	56	337	1	3	17%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Livan Soto 2018 · A	18	43→53	34→40	47→50	50	198/266/247	49	248	2	9	20%	8%	49	-2.4	204/267/252	48	257	2	9	20%	7%	49	-2.4	246/319/331	85	322	6	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	39	37→55	49→40	48	186/260/257	71	244	4	5	25%	8%	49	-2.4	197/286/284	87	296	6	4	32%	10%	65	-1.2	192/301/328	137	300	16	2	37%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Samuel Zavala 2022 · A	18	42→44	38→45	48→50	50	199/273/290	91	249	4	11	21%	8%	61	-1.5	196/285/316	120	290	11	11	33%	10%	72	-0.7	193/290/301	108	265	12	12	29%	11%	68	-0.8
✕Marco Vargas 2023 · A	18	44→46	37→40	50→60	55	207/289/284	77	258	3	13	20%	10%	66	-1.1	207/297/275	68	283	3	18	25%	11%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Abrahan Ramirez 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→55	47	215/290/297	83	299	3	10	27%	8%	69	-0.9	222/312/294	72	300	3	13	24%	11%	77	-0.3	217/314/281	64	302	1	14	25%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	42→50	37→45	46→50	48	196/277/265	70	283	4	9	30%	10%	57	-1.8	206/294/301	95	310	7	14	32%	10%	72	-0.7	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Shed Long Jr. 2014 · A	18	45→50	38→50	46→50	42	213/268/289	76	296	6	6	29%	6%	58	-1.7	211/263/305	94	290	8	8	28%	6%	60	-1.6	238/300/387	148	320	15	11	29%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Jonathan Martinez 2024 · A	17	40	36→40	54→65	49	184/282/254	70	267	3	16	29%	10%	58	-1.7	199/294/275	76	309	3	22	33%	10%	66	-1.1	201/317/288	87	345	4	40	37%	13%	76	-0.1
✕Meibrys Viloria 2015 · A	18	43→48	38→45	46→40	50	204/277/287	83	255	5	5	21%	9%	62	-1.4	233/285/320	87	295	6	3	22%	6%	72	-0.7	246/292/359	114	319	10	2	25%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Manuel Pena 2023 · A	19	41→50	38→50	47→50	42	198/255/277	79	286	6	10	32%	7%	51	-2.3	213/257/304	91	311	6	8	32%	5%	57	-1.8	238/273/365	128	316	15	5	29%	4%	76	-0.4

Sebastian Saenz

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps