José Devers
SS Gwinnett Stripers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AAMIA | 420 | .276/.353/.421 | 7 | 5 | 75 | — | .234/.293/.351 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/A/ROKMIA | 244 | .244/.307/.371 | 3 | 4 | 55 | — | .208/.261/.308 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/ROKATL | 125 | .295/.398/.410 | 2 | 1 | 85 | — | .260/.333/.359 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBATL | 12 | .234/.296/.355 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ38% MLB | 28 | MLBATL | 74 | .233/.295/.354 | 1 | 1 | 83 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 29 | MLBATL | 107 | .232/.294/.351 | 2 | 1 | 82 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | — | 216 | 184 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 245 | 341 | 342 | 684 | 98 | 295 | 17 | 8 | 308 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 362 | 337 | 92 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 49 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 273 | 314 | 332 | 646 | 59 | 318 | 14 | 4 | 289 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 138 | 126 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 325 | 384 | 365 | 749 | 40 | 387 | 14 | 6 | 344 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 46 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 370 | 400 | 770 | 125 | 306 | 9 | 9 | 349 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 43 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 262 | 279 | 333 | 612 | 71 | 407 | 35 | 2 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 317 | 628 | 73 | 323 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 84 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 41 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 250 | 308 | 558 | 77 | 265 | 12 | 2 | 242 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 255 | 233 | 49 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 210 | 265 | 313 | 578 | 103 | 251 | 18 | 5 | 259 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 420 | 373 | 103 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 62 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 276 | 353 | 421 | 773 | 145 | 315 | 15 | 9 | 344 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 208 | 188 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 306 | 362 | 668 | 122 | 278 | 17 | 7 | 298 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 16 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 375 | 375 | 688 | 1.062 | 312 | 429 | 12 | 0 | 455 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 176 | 440 | 273 | 35 | 5 | 207 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 110 | 98 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 286 | 352 | 398 | 750 | 112 | 313 | 14 | 8 | 333 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 15 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 733 | 571 | 1.305 | 143 | 500 | 7 | 53 | 578 | 177 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 317 | 628 | 73 | 323 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 216 | 191 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 183 | 261 | 251 | 512 | 68 | 232 | 25 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 362 | 342 | 94 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 68 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 275 | 305 | 327 | 633 | 53 | 334 | 19 | 3 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 138 | 128 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 281 | 333 | 320 | 654 | 39 | 358 | 20 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 46 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 283 | 310 | 592 | 95 | 238 | 13 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 317 | 628 | 73 | 323 | 24 | 7 | 293 | 84 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 41 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 250 | 308 | 558 | 77 | 260 | 15 | 2 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 255 | 239 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 188 | 233 | 276 | 509 | 88 | 232 | 23 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 420 | 385 | 90 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 76 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 293 | 351 | 643 | 117 | 275 | 18 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 208 | 192 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 262 | 307 | 569 | 99 | 253 | 20 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 16 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 312 | 562 | 875 | 250 | 353 | 19 | 0 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 20 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 118 | 328 | 211 | 50 | 5 | 141 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 110 | 102 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 306 | 353 | 658 | 98 | 275 | 16 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 533 | 400 | 933 | 100 | 369 | 7 | 33 | 430 | 177 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 216 | 191 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 183 | 261 | 251 | 512 | 68 | 243 | 25 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees East | — | 216 | 184 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 245 | 341 | 342 | 684 | 98 | 295 | 17 | 8 | 308 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 362 | 342 | 94 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 68 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 275 | 305 | 327 | 633 | 53 | 342 | 19 | 3 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 362 | 337 | 92 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 49 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 273 | 314 | 332 | 646 | 59 | 318 | 14 | 4 | 289 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 227 | 211 | 55 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 261 | 313 | 308 | 621 | 47 | 325 | 19 | 4 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 227 | 208 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 303 | 361 | 365 | 727 | 62 | 373 | 17 | 6 | 332 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 80 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 282 | 312 | 595 | 75 | 297 | 20 | 5 | 261 | 63 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 87 | 80 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 282 | 312 | 595 | 75 | 292 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 63 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 255 | 239 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 188 | 233 | 276 | 509 | 88 | 238 | 23 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 255 | 233 | 49 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 210 | 265 | 313 | 578 | 103 | 251 | 18 | 5 | 259 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 420 | 385 | 90 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 76 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 293 | 351 | 643 | 117 | 279 | 18 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 420 | 373 | 103 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 62 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 276 | 353 | 421 | 773 | 145 | 315 | 15 | 9 | 344 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 244 | 226 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 257 | 310 | 567 | 102 | 263 | 23 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 244 | 221 | 54 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 307 | 371 | 678 | 127 | 290 | 18 | 7 | 301 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 125 | 112 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 325 | 357 | 682 | 98 | 293 | 16 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 125 | 105 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 295 | 398 | 410 | 808 | 114 | 326 | 13 | 14 | 362 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 216 | 194 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 180 | 261 | 247 | 508 | 67 | 232 | 25 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 362 | 344 | 94 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 68 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 273 | 305 | 326 | 631 | 52 | 334 | 19 | 3 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 227 | 209 | 55 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 263 | 313 | 311 | 624 | 48 | 328 | 19 | 4 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 82 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 282 | 305 | 587 | 73 | 293 | 20 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 255 | 239 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 188 | 233 | 276 | 509 | 88 | 232 | 23 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 420 | 385 | 90 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 76 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 293 | 351 | 643 | 117 | 275 | 18 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 244 | 227 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 257 | 308 | 566 | 101 | 256 | 23 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 125 | 113 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 325 | 354 | 679 | 97 | 286 | 16 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 244 | 227 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 257 | 308 | 566 | 101 | 256 | 23 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 125 | 113 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 325 | 354 | 679 | 97 | 286 | 16 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | ATL | 10% | 200 | 182 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 121 | 291 | 24 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | ATL | 10% | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 121 | 291 | 25 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | ATL | 38% | 196 | 178 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 295 | 354 | 649 | 120 | 290 | 23 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 49% | 220 | 201 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 232 | 294 | 351 | 644 | 119 | 290 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | ATL | 38% | 74 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 295 | 354 | 649 | 120 | 290 | 23 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 49% | 107 | 98 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 294 | 351 | 644 | 119 | 290 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 227 | 207 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 293 | 333 | 627 | 101 | 294 | 23 | 7 | 288 | 67 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 138 | 29 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 152 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 233 | 295 | 337 | 632 | 105 | 295 | 23 | 7 | 288 | 67 | -14 | +1 | -7 | +6 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2476 | 2278 | 528 | 93 | 23 | 22 | 128 | 516 | 43 | 62 | 17 | 232 | 285 | 322 | 607 | 90 | 288 | 21 | 5 | 267 | 67 | -12 | +0 | -4 | +6 | +13 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 138 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 135 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 231 | 285 | 321 | 606 | 90 | 286 | 21 | 5 | 267 | 67 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 110 PAwOBA .330 → .274 (−56)K% 13.6% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.18% | ÷1.140 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.30% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 23.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.162 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 4.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.41% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .274; ISO .112 → .083; BABIP .313 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Braves · 15 PAwOBA .568 → .430 (−139)K% 6.7% → 9.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 9.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 53.33% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 30.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 25.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.996 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 11.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.856 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .568 → .430; ISO .143 → .144; BABIP .500 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 208 PAwOBA .292 → .253 (−39)K% 16.8% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.83% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.21% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.26% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 18.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.23% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .292 → .253; ISO .122 → .105; BABIP .278 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 20 PAwOBA .213 → .141 (−73)K% 35.0% → 51.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.00% | ÷0.987 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 3.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 3.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 23.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .141; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 16 PAwOBA .442 → .348 (−94)K% 12.5% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.029 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 11.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 16.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.960 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 6.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.888 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .442 → .348; ISO .312 → .249; BABIP .429 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 420 PAwOBA .336 → .279 (−57)K% 14.8% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.76% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.19% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 19.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.75% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 6.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.93% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .336 → .279; ISO .145 → .122; BABIP .315 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 255 PAwOBA .254 → .218 (−37)K% 18.0% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.04% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.49% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 16.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.35% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 4.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.07% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .254 → .218; ISO .103 → .083; BABIP .251 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 41 PAwOBA .236 → .226 (−10)K% 12.2% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.44% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 1.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷0.971 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.109 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 2.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .236 → .226; ISO .077 → .069; BABIP .265 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).