Dorian Soto

SS FCL Red Sox

Age 19 S/R 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#935ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	186	.307/.368/.428	2	1	48	—	.212/.264/.276
2026	18	ROKBOS	161	.212/.325/.263	0	9	17	—	.152/.231/.186
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBBOS	271	.209/.270/.298	3	4	61	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBOS	47	.221/.283/.326	1	1	68	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBBOS	114	.226/.289/.343	2	2	75	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed53

Whiff%49

BB%38

K%37

ISO16

wOBA11

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJesús Báez (age 19) · Jon Del Campo (age 19) · Blake Perkins (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .268 / .296

PA83

HR1

K%27

BB%7

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	186	166	51	10	2	2	16	28	0	1	4	307	368	428	796	120	353	15	9	349	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	161	137	29	5	1	0	22	39	1	9	5	212	325	263	588	51	293	24	14	279	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	186	170	36	6	1	1	12	34	0	1	4	212	264	276	540	65	244	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	161	145	22	3	1	0	14	56	1	9	5	152	231	186	417	34	237	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	186	170	36	6	1	1	12	34	0	1	4	212	264	276	540	65	254	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	186	166	51	10	2	2	16	28	0	1	4	307	368	428	796	120	353	15	9	349	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	161	145	22	3	1	0	14	56	1	9	5	152	231	186	417	34	244	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	161	137	29	5	1	0	22	39	1	9	5	212	325	263	588	51	293	24	14	279	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	186	172	36	6	1	1	12	34	0	1	4	209	264	273	537	64	244	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	161	145	22	3	1	0	14	56	1	9	5	152	231	186	417	34	237	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	186	172	36	6	1	1	12	34	0	1	4	209	264	273	537	64	244	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	161	145	22	3	1	0	14	56	1	9	5	152	231	186	417	34	237	35	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	271	248	52	9	2	3	19	74	2	4	1	209	270	298	568	89	282	27	7	258	61	-13	+0	-0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	136	124	26	4	1	2	10	37	1	2	1	215	278	319	596	103	285	27	7	269	68	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	236	215	48	8	2	5	17	63	2	4	1	220	284	336	620	115	286	27	7	279	75	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	348	317	71	12	2	8	25	91	3	5	2	225	289	349	638	125	288	26	7	286	80	-8	+0	-0	+4	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	422	384	87	14	3	10	31	109	4	6	2	228	293	361	654	133	289	26	7	292	84	-8	+0	-0	+5	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	469	427	98	16	3	12	35	120	4	7	3	231	296	370	666	139	290	26	7	297	87	-7	+0	-0	+5	+10	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	498	453	105	17	3	14	37	128	5	7	3	232	297	375	672	143	290	26	7	300	89	-7	+0	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	512	464	108	18	3	14	38	131	5	7	3	233	298	378	676	145	290	26	7	301	90	-6	+0	+0	+5	+11	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	516	467	108	18	3	14	39	133	5	7	3	232	297	376	673	144	290	26	8	300	89	-7	+0	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	513	466	107	18	3	14	38	134	4	6	3	230	295	371	666	141	289	26	7	297	87	-8	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	502	456	104	17	3	13	37	132	4	6	3	228	292	365	658	138	288	26	7	294	85	-9	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	490	447	100	16	3	12	36	130	4	5	4	225	289	358	647	133	286	27	7	289	82	-11	-1	-2	+5	+11	0.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	475	433	96	15	3	12	35	128	4	4	7	221	284	349	633	128	284	27	7	284	78	-12	-2	-3	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	47	44	10	2	0	1	3	13	0	1	0	221	283	326	609	105	293	28	6	275	68	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	114	104	23	4	1	2	8	30	1	2	1	226	289	343	632	117	295	26	7	284	75	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	189	171	39	7	1	4	14	50	2	3	1	230	294	357	651	126	296	26	7	291	80	-5	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	239	217	50	9	1	6	18	62	2	4	1	234	298	368	666	134	298	26	8	298	84	-5	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	265	241	57	10	2	7	20	68	2	4	1	237	301	377	678	140	299	26	8	302	87	-4	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	281	255	61	11	2	7	21	72	3	4	2	238	303	382	684	144	299	26	7	305	89	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	289	262	63	11	2	8	22	74	3	4	2	238	303	385	688	147	299	26	8	306	90	-3	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	286	260	62	11	2	8	21	74	3	4	2	237	302	383	685	145	299	26	7	305	89	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	282	257	60	11	2	7	21	73	2	3	2	236	300	378	678	142	298	26	7	302	87	-4	-0	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	268	244	56	10	1	7	20	71	2	3	2	233	298	372	670	139	297	26	7	299	85	-5	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	258	235	54	10	1	6	19	69	2	3	2	231	294	365	659	134	295	27	7	294	82	-6	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	248	226	51	9	1	6	18	67	2	2	4	227	289	356	645	129	292	27	7	289	78	-6	-1	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2766	2516	586	105	16	69	205	723	24	37	20	233	297	370	667	137	298	26	7	299	81	-50	-1	-4	+30	+60	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	138	25	4	16	48	170	6	9	5	234	298	371	668	137	299	26	7	299	81	-12	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5547	5044	1133	185	35	132	410	1449	47	77	44	225	289	354	643	129	287	26	7	288	81	-99	-1	-8	+56	+113	6.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	133	22	4	15	48	170	6	9	5	225	290	352	642	127	288	26	7	288	81	-12	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 161 PAwOBA .275 → .193 (−82)K% 24.2% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.22%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	34.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.66%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.66%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.46%
Singles /BIP	23.47%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.990	×1.022	19.49%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.990	×1.022	3.72%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.990	×1.022	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .275 → .193; ISO .051 → .034; BABIP .293 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 186 PAwOBA .345 → .239 (−106)K% 15.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.05%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.60%	÷0.959	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.81%	÷0.932	×0.680	×0.993	×1.022	19.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷1.059	×0.600	×0.993	×1.022	4.17%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.993	×1.022	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	1.45%	÷0.920	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.76%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 86, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .345 → .239; ISO .120 → .067; BABIP .353 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.3	2,849	72	37	229	290	364	+31	-2	5.5	5.1
/162	664	17	9	+7.1	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 5
#5Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dorian Soto (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	208/268/296	88	282	1	1	27%	7%	61	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Jon Del Campo 2007 · A	19	43	38→45	45→55	47	206/270/283	77	273	6	5	26%	8%	58	-1.7	206/258/288	82	299	4	5	30%	6%	54	-2.0	272/305/377	105	345	10	18	23%	3%	93	+0.5
✕Blake Perkins 2017 · A	20	40→50	36→50	42→55	42	193/245/258	65	267	4	7	28%	6%	42	-2.9	209/275/293	84	297	6	16	29%	8%	63	-1.4	227/310/355	127	301	12	25	27%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Jonah Heim 2014 · A	19	41→50	36→55	46→40	46	194/252/263	70	253	3	6	24%	7%	47	-2.6	198/245/277	79	252	4	5	22%	6%	47	-2.6	229/289/394	165	256	20	3	19%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→47	37→45	47→55	46	189/257/263	74	257	4	8	27%	8%	49	-2.4	200/264/264	64	286	4	10	29%	8%	51	-2.2	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Rosell Herrera 2012 · A	19	40→50	38→45	48→55	44	196/254/277	80	254	6	9	24%	6%	51	-2.3	225/276/310	85	304	7	10	27%	6%	65	-1.2	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Jose Perez 2022 · A	18	39	37→40	42→45	48	187/265/263	76	258	4	6	27%	9%	53	-2.1	190/298/267	77	248	4	7	22%	12%	67	-1.1	180/313/262	82	232	4	7	21%	15%	70	-0.2
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Enderson Delgado 2024 · A	19	32	38→45	44→30	42	160/240/231	71	233	6	5	32%	7%	36	-3.3	187/268/277	90	268	8	4	31%	7%	57	-1.8	177/262/262	85	246	8	2	29%	7%	51	-0.7
✕Ronny Mauricio 2019 · A	18	44→53	40→55	40→55	40	215/249/310	95	275	6	4	24%	4%	55	-1.9	217/249/316	99	293	9	6	28%	4%	57	-1.8	253/293/416	163	316	21	21	26%	5%	96	+0.8
✕Cal Mitchell 2018 · A	19	41→51	38→50	42→50	43	196/257/277	81	269	5	5	28%	7%	52	-2.2	214/261/321	107	318	10	3	34%	5%	63	-1.3	236/294/376	140	302	15	12	26%	7%	87	+0.3
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	40→44	42→60	44→30	44	195/277/301	106	276	10	5	31%	8%	66	-1.1	199/274/334	135	301	16	4	37%	8%	73	-0.6	207/300/402	195	286	26	2	35%	10%	96	+0.8
●Ronny Simon 2019 · A	19	40→50	36→50	47→60	46	190/268/261	71	256	3	11	25%	8%	53	-2.1	201/265/313	112	253	8	14	23%	7%	63	-1.3	273/337/383	110	340	8	30	21%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	44→50	41→50	47→45	46	215/282/311	96	276	9	12	25%	8%	70	-0.9	234/317/368	134	286	12	9	21%	10%	96	+1.0	231/317/370	139	276	13	9	20%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Alejandro Flores 2015 · A	19	39	41→50	48→40	45	194/256/286	92	252	8	5	26%	7%	54	-2.0	195/258/283	88	291	7	6	33%	7%	53	-2.1	206/261/337	132	279	11	4	29%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→50	41→50	50	45	204/264/307	103	268	7	10	26%	7%	61	-1.5	231/294/358	127	293	12	10	24%	7%	84	+0.2	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	38→48	38→55	46→55	42	188/240/269	81	244	6	5	25%	5%	43	-2.8	207/266/331	124	281	13	8	29%	7%	68	-1.0	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→43	39→55	47→45	40	170/236/260	90	270	6	8	37%	7%	40	-3.0	210/275/349	139	306	13	8	34%	8%	76	-0.4	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Nick Franklin 2010 · A	19	45→51	40→50	49→50	41	220/262/313	93	284	7	6	25%	5%	61	-1.5	233/283/371	138	305	15	13	27%	6%	83	+0.1	240/308/375	135	306	13	12	25%	9%	92	+0.7

Dorian Soto

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps