Tyler Spangler — OGILVIE

Tyler SpanglerSS Clearwater Threshers

Age 19 L/R A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .293 / .339

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP293

ISO85

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

DEFENSE49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	42	34	6	1	0	1	6	10	1	0	0	176	317	294	611	118	208	24	14	283	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	42	36	6	1	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	167	268	278	546	111	195	33	10	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	42	36	6	1	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	167	268	278	546	111	227	33	10	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	42	34	6	1	0	1	6	10	1	0	0	176	317	294	611	118	208	24	14	283	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	42	37	6	1	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	162	268	270	539	108	195	33	10	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	42	37	6	1	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	162	268	270	539	108	195	33	10	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	PHI	4%	152	137	30	5	1	3	12	43	2	2	1	218	291	333	624	115	293	28	8	282	77	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	19	MLB CTX	PHI	4%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	220	293	339	631	119	293	33	0	285	77	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	PHI	36%	179	161	36	6	1	4	14	50	2	3	1	221	296	341	637	120	294	28	8	288	81	-4	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	316	283	64	11	2	7	26	87	4	5	2	224	299	348	647	124	295	28	8	292	84	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	416	373	84	14	2	10	34	113	6	7	3	227	301	354	656	128	295	27	8	295	86	-7	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	483	433	99	17	3	11	40	130	7	8	3	229	304	360	663	131	296	27	8	298	88	-7	+0	-1	+5	+10	0.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	526	470	109	19	3	13	44	140	7	8	4	230	305	364	669	134	297	27	8	301	90	-7	+0	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	552	493	115	20	3	14	46	147	8	9	4	231	305	365	670	134	297	27	8	301	90	-7	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	565	505	116	20	3	14	47	150	8	9	4	230	305	365	670	135	296	27	8	301	90	-7	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	570	510	117	20	3	14	47	152	8	9	4	229	304	362	667	133	296	27	8	300	89	-8	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	567	508	115	20	3	13	47	153	7	8	4	228	303	358	660	130	295	27	8	297	87	-9	+0	-1	+6	+12	0.9
2037	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	559	501	113	19	3	13	46	152	7	7	5	225	300	352	652	127	294	27	8	294	85	-10	-1	-1	+6	+12	0.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	550	493	110	19	3	12	45	152	7	7	6	223	296	345	641	122	293	28	8	289	82	-12	-1	-2	+6	+12	0.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	PHI	60%	536	482	105	18	2	11	43	150	6	6	9	219	292	335	627	117	290	28	8	284	78	-14	-2	-3	+6	+12	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	PHI	36%	64	58	12	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	223	297	347	644	124	295	28	8	290	81	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	155	139	32	5	1	4	13	43	2	2	1	226	300	355	655	129	295	28	8	295	84	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	227	203	47	8	1	6	19	62	3	4	2	228	303	361	664	133	296	27	8	298	86	-4	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	274	245	57	9	2	7	23	74	4	4	2	230	305	366	671	136	297	27	8	301	88	-4	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	298	267	62	10	2	8	25	79	4	5	2	232	307	371	678	139	297	27	8	304	90	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	312	279	65	11	2	8	26	83	4	5	2	232	307	372	679	139	297	27	8	304	90	-4	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	319	286	66	11	2	8	26	85	4	5	2	232	307	372	679	140	297	27	8	304	90	-4	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	316	283	66	11	2	8	26	85	4	5	2	231	306	369	675	138	297	27	8	303	89	-4	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	311	278	65	11	2	8	26	84	4	4	2	229	304	365	669	135	296	27	8	300	87	-5	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	299	268	60	10	1	7	25	81	4	4	3	227	301	358	660	131	295	27	8	297	85	-5	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	314	281	62	10	1	7	26	87	4	4	3	224	298	351	649	126	293	28	8	292	82	-7	-0	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	PHI	60%	319	286	62	10	1	7	26	89	4	3	5	220	293	341	634	121	290	28	8	286	78	-8	-1	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3208	2873	656	108	17	79	266	870	42	46	26	228	303	360	663	132	297	27	8	299	86	-53	-1	-5	+34	+70	4.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	133	22	3	16	54	176	9	9	5	229	304	359	663	131	298	27	8	299	86	-11	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5926	5307	1201	206	31	138	488	1608	79	87	49	226	301	355	656	129	296	27	8	295	86	-98	-2	-10	+63	+127	8.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	132	23	3	15	54	176	9	10	5	227	303	354	657	127	296	27	8	295	86	-11	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Angel Berroalast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA	4.2	2,794	46	50	259	303	375	+27	-6	6.7	7.1
/162	664	11	12	+6.5	-1.4	1.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.8	3,211	75	46	228	299	357	+34	-2	6.8	6.1
/162	664	15	9	+7.1	-0.5	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Spangler (OGILVIE)	19	20→52	30→52	50→44	45	216/289/330	114	293	1	1	28%	8%	77	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	37	39→45	46→45	53	177/289/262	85	262	6	6	31%	12%	63	-1.4	182/260/254	72	283	5	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	46→51	41→45	46→55	51	218/304/317	98	298	9	7	28%	10%	79	-0.2	237/308/353	116	333	10	11	29%	9%	88	+0.5	242/319/359	118	343	9	15	29%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Shed Long Jr. 2016 · A	20	44→50	42→50	44→50	43	216/269/322	106	282	10	6	27%	6%	66	-1.1	235/294/368	133	322	13	11	29%	7%	87	+0.4	238/300/387	148	320	15	11	29%	7%	91	+0.5
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→48	42→55	45→50	49	189/279/298	109	272	9	7	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/296/340	135	284	14	9	30%	11%	82	-0.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6
✕John Drennen 2006 · A	19	39→49	47→45	47→45	42	202/262/333	131	257	15	8	28%	6%	68	-1.0	224/283/327	103	291	9	6	25%	6%	74	-0.6	250/301/374	124	298	8	1	18%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Ronny Hernandez 2024 · A	19	44→53	39→40	49→30	46	211/281/302	91	288	6	4	28%	8%	67	-1.1	227/301/310	83	296	7	3	24%	9%	76	-0.4	229/306/323	94	287	11	1	22%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Rio Ruiz 2014 · A	20	45→54	44→50	50→40	45	221/278/350	129	289	10	8	27%	7%	76	-0.4	241/308/352	111	311	9	4	23%	9%	88	+0.4	246/316/351	105	316	8	2	23%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Khalil Lee 2017 · A	19	44→54	44→45	50→55	43	205/286/327	123	320	10	9	36%	9%	76	-0.4	209/286/328	119	343	11	17	39%	8%	75	-0.5	216/317/330	114	346	10	25	36%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→51	43→55	48→45	42	203/262/304	101	271	11	4	29%	6%	61	-1.5	241/298/398	157	309	18	7	27%	7%	95	+1.0	240/301/413	173	300	21	6	27%	7%	98	+0.9
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	43	41→45	45	56	204/303/316	112	273	7	8	26%	12%	79	-0.2	186/265/271	85	280	6	5	33%	9%	55	-2.0	183/231/259	76	238	8	4	26%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Samuel Zavala 2023 · A	19	42→44	45	48→50	46	206/278/339	133	281	12	10	30%	9%	74	-0.5	193/287/305	112	289	11	12	34%	11%	71	-0.8	193/290/301	108	265	12	12	29%	11%	68	-0.8
✕Gosuke Katoh 2014 · A	19	45→52	44→45	49→50	44	217/281/340	123	299	11	6	30%	8%	75	-0.5	191/268/274	83	323	5	11	38%	9%	55	-1.9	225/294/323	98	318	8	11	29%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Josue Briceño 2024 · A	19	43	44→60	45→40	45	212/270/332	119	265	11	5	24%	7%	70	-0.9	231/302/376	145	286	16	3	24%	8%	92	+0.7	230/310/399	168	278	22	1	25%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Cam Collier 2024 · A	19	46→44	40→45	47→40	46	215/292/308	93	309	8	5	31%	9%	72	-0.7	214/289/325	111	309	11	3	32%	9%	76	-0.4	204/279/320	116	291	12	1	32%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Marcelo Mayer 2022 · A	19	46→47	42→50	53→50	42	215/279/322	107	328	10	12	35%	8%	71	-0.8	225/292/370	145	321	15	12	32%	8%	86	+0.3	229/294/381	151	313	16	14	30%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→53	41→45	52→55	47	212/293/316	104	323	7	14	34%	10%	75	-0.5	217/315/345	128	302	15	12	30%	12%	91	+0.6	218/312/337	119	292	14	14	28%	11%	85	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps