Lucas Spence

OF Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 24 L/L 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AHOU98.200/.347/.2881451—.176/.286/.259
202522AAHOU138.225/.372/.4054691—.205/.321/.350
202522A+HOU270.239/.338/.41061044—.175/.245/.289
202623MLBHOU63.218/.317/.50940130-0.0
2027PROJ45% MLB24MLBHOU112.222/.310/.37534930.2
2028PROJ59% MLB25MLBHOU323.224/.312/.379813940.5
2029PROJ65% MLB26MLBHOU387.225/.313/.3811015950.7
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%81
Chase%69
Max EV56
Z-Con%54
Whiff%33
K%31
Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 78%
CompsAkil Baddoo (age 24) · Ryan Kalish (age 24) · Dustin Harris (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†93
AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .310 / .375
PA112
HR3
K%28
BB%9
BABIP291
ISO162
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +1.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -1.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +5.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.20.50.70.60.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 44
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT51
xAVG
100.197
POWER44
Barrel%
7612.1
Avg EV
9091.9
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
7628.5
DEFENSE55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.9M+$0.1M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Arb-1$3M+0.7$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-2$5M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$7M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $9M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9880 16021 15223 42 200347287634 87263 2215 304 51 — — — — — —
202522 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 138111 25804 25341 60 225372405778 180284 2518 352 91 — — — — — —
202522 A+Asheville Tourists — 270234 561826 30705 104 239338410749 171314 2611 335 44 — — — — — —
202522 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 10177 22510 18185 111 286450377827 91373 1818 384 99 — — — — — —
202623 MLBHouston Astros — 6355 12214 7221 02 218317509827 291276 3511 360 130 +2 -1 +0 -3 +1 -0.0
202623 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 214178 38828 31562 70 213336416752 202256 2614 333 73 — — — — — —
202623 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 202171 461034 194110 102 269375433808 164328 209 361 96 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 6355 12214 7221 02 218317509827 291276 3511 360 129 +2 -1 +0 -3 +1 -0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82252 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 138117 24803 19401 60 205321350672 145274 2914 302 91 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 270246 431224 18945 104 175245289534 114255 357 233 44 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 10183 21410 12255 111 253380325705 72348 2512 314 99 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 6355 12214 7221 02 218317509827 291276 3511 360 130 +2 -1 +0 -3 +1 -0.0
202623 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 214187 35726 22672 70 187280342622 155242 3110 276 73 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 202177 43933 135010 102 243330379709 136304 256 310 96 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82255 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9880 16021 15223 42 200347287634 87263 2215 304 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 509446 882437 4915911 275 197292312604 114287 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW3 teams — 509422 10331310 7312211 275 244370403772 159318 2414 349 67 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 479419 8918613 4213913 174 212304377681 165279 299 301 90 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAW3 teams — 479404 9620616 5711913 174 238350436786 198292 2512 348 90 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82252 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 509444 882437 4915911 275 198292313606 115279 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 479421 8918613 4213913 174 211304375679 164273 299 301 90 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82252 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 509444 882437 4915911 275 198292313606 115279 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 479421 8918613 4213913 174 211304375679 164273 299 301 90 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEHOU 45% 380334 7315310 351058 153 219308372680 153286 289 305 93 -3 +2 +1 -2 +8 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXHOU 45% 11299 22513 10312 41 222310375686 153291 289 308 93 -1 +0 +0 -1 +2 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEHOU 59% 550483 10721515 5015112 225 221310376686 155287 279 308 94 -4 +2 +1 -3 +12 0.9
202926 MLB MLEHOU 65% 594523 11623516 5416112 235 222310378688 155287 279 308 95 -4 +3 +1 -4 +13 1.0
203027 MLB MLEHOU 67% 582512 11423515 5315712 225 223310376686 154286 279 308 94 -4 +2 +1 -3 +13 0.9
203128 MLB MLEHOU 67% 571503 11222515 5215411 194 222308373682 151286 279 306 93 -5 +2 +1 -3 +12 0.7
203229 MLB MLEHOU 66% 559494 10821414 5015110 164 221306369675 148284 279 303 91 -6 +2 -0 -3 +12 0.5
203330 MLB MLEHOU 65% 420371 8016310 381158 102 217302361663 143282 279 298 88 -6 +1 -1 -3 +9 0.1
202825 MLB CTXHOU 59% 323283 631338 30887 133 224312379691 155291 279 310 94 -2 +1 +1 -2 +7 0.5
202926 MLB CTXHOU 65% 387341 7616310 351058 153 225313381693 155291 279 311 95 -2 +2 +1 -2 +8 0.7
203027 MLB CTXHOU 67% 387341 7616310 351058 153 225312379692 154291 279 310 94 -3 +2 +1 -2 +8 0.6
203128 MLB CTXHOU 67% 384339 7616310 351047 133 224311376687 152290 279 308 93 -3 +1 +0 -2 +8 0.5
203229 MLB CTXHOU 66% 369326 731539 331007 112 223308372680 149289 279 305 91 -4 +1 -0 -2 +8 0.3
203330 MLB CTXHOU 65% 274242 541127 25755 62 220305364668 144287 279 301 88 -4 +0 -1 -2 +6 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 21871927 430891858 20059943 7318 223310378688 155290 279 309 89 -16 +7 +3 -16 +47 2.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650573 12726517 5917813 225 222309373682 152289 279 309 89 -5 +2 +1 -5 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 46124056 87717840112 421128597 17038 216305363668 146285 289 300 89 -27 +13 +5 -24 +78 4.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 12425616 5918114 245 217306365671 149285 289 300 89 -5 +2 +1 -4 +14 0.8