Twine Palmer

P Frederick Keys

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#732ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ABAL	18	13	62	4.35	3.05	23.4%	12.1%	—	K 17.3% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.02
2026	21	A+BAL	22	11	82	4.08	3.37	24.0%	11.8%	—	K 18.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	22	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.16	5.16	18.7%	14.4%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBBAL	3	3	21	4.96	4.85	20.5%	12.6%	0.1
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBBAL	5	5	33	4.74	4.61	21.6%	11.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsNick Garcia (age 22) · Jake Lyons (age 22) · Noah Skirrow (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%18.7%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	2	16	4	5	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	31.2%	-6.2%	6.2%	11.57	8.38	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	2	16	4	5	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	31.2%	-6.2%	6.2%	11.57	8.38	—
2024	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	2	16	4	5	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	31.2%	-6.2%	6.2%	11.57	11.67	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	18	13	62	273	64	33	2	72%	3.4	17.3%	14.3%	3.1%	1.1%	4.35	4.02	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	18	13	62	273	64	33	2	72%	3.4	17.3%	14.3%	3.1%	1.1%	4.35	4.02	—
2025	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	18	13	62	273	64	33	2	72%	3.4	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	0.7%	4.35	3.05	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	22	11	82	346	83	41	5	50%	3.7	18.5%	13.6%	4.8%	1.8%	4.08	4.26	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	22	11	82	346	83	41	5	50%	3.7	18.5%	13.6%	4.8%	1.8%	4.08	4.26	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	22	11	82	346	83	41	5	50%	3.7	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	1.4%	4.08	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	14.4%	4.4%	2.6%	5.16	5.16	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	61	257	53	33	7	100%	6.8	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.6%	4.90	4.79	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	61	257	56	30	7	100%	6.8	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.68	4.55	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	56	236	52	26	6	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.6%	4.52	4.42	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	56	236	53	25	6	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	2.6%	4.44	4.39	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	54	229	51	25	6	100%	6.8	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	52	218	49	24	6	100%	6.5	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.51	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	48	202	45	23	6	100%	6.8	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.64	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	43	182	40	21	6	100%	6.2	21.7%	11.5%	10.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.82	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	21	89	18	11	2	100%	7.0	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.7%	4.96	4.85	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	5	5	33	139	30	16	4	100%	6.6	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	2.7%	4.74	4.61	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	38	160	36	17	4	100%	6.3	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.7%	4.58	4.48	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	43	182	41	19	5	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.51	4.46	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	44	186	42	20	5	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	44	186	41	20	5	100%	6.3	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.58	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	42	177	39	20	5	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.71	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	38	160	35	18	5	100%	6.3	21.7%	11.5%	10.2%	3.3%	4.81	4.90	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	303	1280	282	143	37	100%	6.5	22.0%	11.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.64	4.24	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	186	94	24	100%	6.4	22.0%	11.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.64	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		42	24	146	635	115	91	10	57%	3.5	18.2%	14.3%	3.8%	1.6%	4.32	4.26	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	33	200	870	158	125	14	57%	3.5	18.2%	14.3%	3.8%	1.6%	4.32	4.26	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 82 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.26 (+0.89)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.99%	—	×0.770	18.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×1.150	13.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 62 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.02 (+0.97)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.740	17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×1.180	14.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.73%	÷0.899	×1.300	1.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Twine Palmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.59	21.4%	9.7%	178	-0.57	—	—	—
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	89
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	89
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	88
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	87
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	87
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	87
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	87
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	86
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	85
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	85
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	84
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	84
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	84
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	83
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	54	21.5%	11.6%	1.05	4.66
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*