Twine Palmer
P
Frederick Keys
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2030
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.2%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 18 | 13 | 62 | 273 | 64 | 33 | 2 | 17.3% | 14.3% | 1.1% | 4.35 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 2 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 68 | 288 | 63 | 31 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 63 | 27 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 67 | 26 | 8 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 71 | 26 | 8 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.02 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 73 | 26 | 8 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.97 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.94 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.95 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 70 | 25 | 8 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.02 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 67 | 24 | 8 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 64 | 24 | 8 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 14 | 70 | 315 | 57 | 47 | 4 | 18.2% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 4.13 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 40 | 200 | 896 | 162 | 134 | 11 | 18.2% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 4.13 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Twine Palmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.13 | 23.5% | 14.3% | 202 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 93 |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.49 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.42 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.07 | 2.88 | 245 | 92 |
| Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.61 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.16 | 4.10 | 174 | 92 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 92 |
| Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.54 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.03 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.49 | 4.28 | 355 | 91 |
| John Klein R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.53 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .287 | 3.72 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 207 | -0.81 | 3.22 | 260 | 90 |
| Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.02 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.04 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 53 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 124 | 90 |
| Frank German R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.99 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.60 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 123 | -0.39 | 3.09 | 218 | 90 |
| Alec Barger R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 90 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 90 |
| Levi Wells R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.35 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.54 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 110 | -0.81 | 2.08 | 170 | 89 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 89 |
| Christian Roa R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.94 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.5% | .321 | 5.00 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | +0.06 | 4.35 | 373 | 89 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 89 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 89 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 543 | 89 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 89 |
| Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.31 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.59 | 27.4% | 17.5% | 264 | -0.72 | 3.45 | 535 | 89 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.87 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .305 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 82 | -0.62 | 3.84 | 147 | 88 |
| Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| Totals | $8M | $24M | +$17M | ||