Twine Palmer — OGILVIE

Twine Palmer P Frederick Keys

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%17.0%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%1.3%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	2	16	4	5	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	31.2%	-6.2%	6.2%	11.57	8.38	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	2	16	4	5	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	31.2%	-6.2%	6.2%	11.57	8.38	—
2024	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	2	16	4	5	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	31.2%	-6.2%	6.2%	11.57	11.67	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	18	13	62	273	64	33	2	72%	3.4	17.3%	14.3%	3.1%	1.1%	4.35	4.02	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	18	13	62	273	64	33	2	72%	3.4	17.3%	14.3%	3.1%	1.1%	4.35	4.02	—
2025	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	18	13	62	273	64	33	2	72%	3.4	23.4%	12.1%	11.4%	0.7%	4.35	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	22	11	82	346	83	41	5	50%	3.7	18.5%	13.6%	4.8%	1.8%	4.08	4.26	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	22	11	82	346	83	41	5	50%	3.7	18.5%	13.6%	4.8%	1.8%	4.08	4.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	BAL	22	11	82	346	83	41	5	50%	3.7	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	1.4%	4.08	3.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	84	355	66	49	10	100%	6.5	18.5%	13.8%	4.7%	2.7%	5.25	5.15	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	87	368	72	46	10	100%	6.2	19.5%	12.5%	6.9%	2.7%	5.01	4.89	+0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	89	377	76	45	10	100%	6.4	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.83	4.74	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	90	382	79	44	10	100%	6.5	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.7%	4.71	4.65	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	90	382	79	43	10	100%	6.5	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.7%	4.66	4.62	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	89	376	78	43	10	100%	6.4	20.8%	11.4%	9.3%	2.7%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	86	365	75	42	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	2.8%	4.71	4.75	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	82	348	71	41	10	100%	6.3	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.88	+0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	78	327	72	37	10	100%	6.5	22.1%	11.3%	10.7%	3.2%	4.80	4.79	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	72	305	66	36	10	100%	6.0	21.6%	11.7%	10.0%	3.4%	4.91	4.99	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	41	173	32	24	5	100%	5.9	18.5%	13.8%	4.7%	2.8%	5.32	5.22	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	64	270	53	34	8	100%	6.4	19.5%	12.5%	6.9%	2.8%	5.08	4.96	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	63	37	9	100%	6.2	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.90	4.81	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	80	338	70	39	9	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.72	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	83	350	73	40	10	100%	6.4	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.73	4.69	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	83	350	73	40	10	100%	6.4	20.8%	11.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.73	4.73	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	81	342	71	40	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.78	4.82	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	78	329	67	39	10	100%	6.5	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	3.1%	4.88	4.95	+0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	69	35	10	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.3%	10.7%	3.3%	4.88	4.87	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	69	291	63	34	10	100%	6.3	21.6%	11.7%	10.0%	3.5%	4.99	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	726	3066	632	361	91	100%	6.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.48	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	174	99	25	100%	6.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		42	24	146	635	115	91	10	57%	3.5	18.2%	14.3%	3.8%	1.6%	4.32	4.26	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	33	200	870	158	125	14	57%	3.5	18.2%	14.3%	3.8%	1.6%	4.32	4.26	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Twine Palmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	17.0%	15.7%	2.7%	—	4.92	19.4%	6.7%	261	-0.62	—	—	—
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	89
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	86
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	86
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	86
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	86
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	83
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	83
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	83
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	82
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	82
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	81
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	81	20.3%	12.1%	1.09	4.87
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88