Twine Palmer P Frederick Keys
Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.44
FIP5.44
K%17.0%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%2.1%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
K: -0.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -3.5 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-4BBCONTACT: +1.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+1CONTACTSTAM: +14.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+15STAMTotal WAR: +1.29 (109 IP)+1.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.30.30.30.3+$7M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4040
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†4050
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2031Arb-1$1M+0.3$0.8M+$0.2M
2032Arb-2$1M+0.3$0.8M+$0.0M
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $5M $4M +$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202419AFayetteville Woodpeckers202164510%1.225.0%31.2%-6.2%6.2%11.578.38—
202419AFayetteville Woodpeckers202164510%1.225.0%31.2%-6.2%6.2%11.5711.67—
202520ADelmarva Shorebirds1813622736433272%3.417.3%14.3%3.1%1.2%4.354.10—
202520ADelmarva Shorebirds1813622736433272%3.423.4%12.1%11.4%0.7%4.353.05—
▸ 2026 Season
202621A+Frederick Keys167662706832244%4.119.4%13.6%5.8%0.9%3.563.70+0.7
ROS21MLBBAL41043183312750%1.117.0%14.9%2.1%2.8%5.445.44-0.5
ROS21MLBBAL——0——————17.0%14.9%2.1%2.9%5.505.50—
2026 TOT21MLBBAL——10945399597——21.9%13.1%8.8%1.6%4.314.39+1.3
2026 FULL21MLBBAL——01000——17.0%14.9%2.1%2.9%5.505.12-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722MLBBAL774619336265100%6.518.6%13.3%5.3%2.7%5.185.08-0.3
202823MLBBAL774720039245100%6.819.7%12.3%7.4%2.7%4.964.85-0.2
202924MLBBAL774820542245100%6.920.4%11.6%8.8%2.7%4.794.70-0.1
203025MLBBAL774920743236100%7.020.9%11.3%9.6%2.7%4.684.62-0.0
203126MLBBAL774920744236100%7.021.1%11.3%9.8%2.7%4.634.59-0.0
203227MLBBAL774820443236100%6.921.1%11.3%9.7%2.7%4.634.63-0.0
202722MLBBAL33239718133100%7.718.6%13.3%5.3%2.8%5.245.14-0.2
202823MLBBAL553514829184100%7.019.7%12.3%7.4%2.8%5.024.91-0.1
202924MLBBAL664016935205100%6.720.4%11.6%8.8%2.8%4.854.76-0.1
203025MLBBAL664318238215100%7.220.9%11.3%9.6%2.8%4.744.68-0.1
203126MLBBAL774519040215100%6.421.1%11.3%9.8%2.8%4.694.65-0.1
203227MLBBAL774519040225100%6.421.1%11.3%9.7%2.8%4.694.69-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—343423197419911427100%6.820.5%11.7%8.8%2.8%4.834.39+2.7
/ 200 IP—2929200844173992399%6.820.5%11.7%8.8%2.8%4.834.39+2.4
Career—362013055910481756%3.618.6%14.4%4.1%1.2%4.084.03+2.1
/ 200 IP—55312008601601241056%3.618.6%14.4%4.1%1.2%4.084.03+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Twine Palmer (OGILVIE) —— 5.44 17.0%14.9%2.8%— 4.87 19.6%7.2%141 -0.57 ———
Nolberto Henriquez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP 21 SP- 4.75 16.0%13.4%2.4%.305 5.43 11.3%-3.1%52 +0.68 4.75 108 92
Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP 21 SP- 4.33 17.9%13.4%1.9%.295 3.59 27.4%17.5%264 -0.74 3.28 535 88
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2026 · 5.32 FIP 21 SP- 5.32 13.9%15.4%2.6%.237 4.05 20.5%4.7%73 -1.27 3.79 101 86
Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP 21 SP- 4.94 15.7%12.6%2.8%.310 5.83 13.2%-8.6%70 +0.89 4.13 147 85
Juan Mota R 2026 · 4.28 FIP 21 SP- 4.28 18.4%14.8%1.6%.309 5.22 17.5%5.8%111 +0.94 3.89 279 85
Sal Biasi R 2026 · 4.68 FIP 21 SP- 4.68 16.0%12.6%2.5%.230 5.55 18.5%5.0%109 +0.87 4.68 188 84
Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.41 FIP 21 SP- 5.41 18.7%16.8%3.2%.312 5.36 17.8%-0.6%163 -0.05 3.51 278 84
Wills Montgomerie R 2028 · 5.03 FIP 23 SP- 5.03 19.3%19.1%2.1%.275 4.55 20.1%6.0%105 -0.48 4.55 153 84
Ike Buxton R 2028 · 4.93 FIP 23 SP- 4.93 16.8%15.2%2.4%.241 4.68 14.8%-0.6%123 -0.25 4.52 196 84
Gabriel Chinchilla R 2024 · 5.10 FIP 19 SP- 5.10 17.9%14.4%3.1%.349 — ——— — 3.64 113 84
Alex Vallecillo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP 21 SP- 4.68 18.6%16.3%2.0%.277 — ——— — 4.47 152 84
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP 22 SP- 4.31 18.3%12.3%2.2%.274 4.88 17.3%5.9%265 +0.57 4.27 384 83
Dawson Netz R 2029 · 5.27 FIP 24 SP- 5.27 16.4%12.9%3.5%.321 4.42 23.3%12.6%51 -0.85 4.42 102 83
Juan Perez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP 21 SW 5.28 15.4%14.1%3.1%.321 4.63 10.8%0.0%56 -0.65 4.63 113 83
David Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.41 FIP 22 SP- 4.41 13.5%11.7%1.8%.316 3.77 17.7%10.1%102 -0.64 3.66 161 83
Blane Abeyta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP 22 SP- 4.66 21.1%18.2%1.9%.283 4.73 15.6%6.4%343 +0.07 4.34 471 83
Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 18.4%11.5%2.4%.306 4.68 16.2%5.7%316 +0.34 3.90 371 82
James McArthur R 2027 · 5.37 FIP 22 SP- 5.37 18.8%15.5%3.5%.304 4.20 20.0%10.7%131 -1.17 3.53 352 82
Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.32 FIP 22 SP- 4.32 18.0%12.5%2.1%.276 4.76 17.9%1.8%172 +0.44 4.32 308 81
Irvin Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.37 FIP 20 SP- 4.37 17.0%16.2%1.2%.282 — ——— — 3.90 111 81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION74719.9%12.2%1.054.89
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Buck Farmer ('24)105021.6%10.5%1.234.59
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
Steven Brault ('21)65718.8%11.3%1.004.77
Greg Holland ('21)64525.4%12.3%0.874.03