Luke Lashutka — OGILVIE

Luke Lashutka P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%19.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.69	—
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.69	—
2024	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.60	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	71	275	72	20	4	46%	2.7	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	1.8%	2.17	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	71	275	72	20	4	46%	2.7	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	1.8%	2.17	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	12	71	275	72	20	4	46%	2.7	26.2%	7.3%	18.9%	1.5%	2.17	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	5	5	15	77	12	10	3	100%	3.0	4.4%	15.5%	-11.0%	7.2%	12.00	8.64	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	5	5	15	77	12	10	3	100%	3.0	4.4%	15.5%	-11.0%	7.2%	12.00	8.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	MIA	2	2	5	25	9	3	0	100%	2.4	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	7.71	1.58	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIA	3	3	10	52	3	7	3	100%	3.4	5.8%	13.5%	-7.7%	5.8%	13.94	7.48	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	6	24	5	2	1	100%	5.7	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	21	101	17	12	4	—	—	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	3.6%	9.94	7.50	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	68	287	58	24	8	100%	5.7	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.8%	4.42	4.40	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	68	287	60	24	8	100%	6.2	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.37	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	67	283	59	24	8	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.41	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	65	274	57	24	8	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	29	122	25	10	3	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.32	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	39	16	5	100%	5.6	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	2.7%	4.31	4.29	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	52	220	46	19	6	100%	5.8	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.33	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	55	232	48	20	7	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.41	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	181	764	159	66	21	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.6%	12.1%	2.8%	4.34	3.96	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	73	23	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.6%	12.1%	2.8%	4.34	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		32	17	88	361	61	36	11	53%	2.7	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	2.9%	3.90	4.55	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	39	200	824	138	83	24	53%	2.7	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	2.9%	3.90	4.55	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Lashutka (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	19.6%	8.6%	2.8%	—	4.39	20.7%	12.1%	203	-0.08	—	—	—
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	85
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	85
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	84
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	81
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	81
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	79
Josh DeGraaf R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	24	SW	3.90	15.5%	7.7%	2.1%	.295	4.52	17.2%	10.1%	121	+0.62	3.90	320	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	79
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	79
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	78
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	20.5%	8.6%	1.12	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19