Luke Lashutka
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%19.6%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.69 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.60 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 12 | 71 | 275 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 46% | 2.7 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 2.17 | 3.49 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 12 | 71 | 275 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 46% | 2.7 | 26.2% | 7.3% | 18.9% | 1.5% | 2.17 | 2.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 5 | 5 | 15 | 77 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 4.4% | 15.5% | -11.0% | 7.2% | 12.00 | 8.64 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 80 | 351 | 66 | 34 | 11 | — | — | 18.7% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 5.89 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 127 | 534 | 111 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.97 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 175 | 73 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 17 | 88 | 361 | 61 | 36 | 10 | 53% | 2.7 | 16.8% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 4.54 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 39 | 200 | 824 | 138 | 83 | 24 | 53% | 2.7 | 16.8% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Lashutka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.40 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 203 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 85 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 84 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 84 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 81 |
| Chase Centala R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 81 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 80 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 79 |
| Thomas Ponticelli R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.73 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.29 | 15.3% | 2.9% | 163 | +0.56 | 2.59 | 367 | 79 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 79 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 79 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 79 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 78 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.71 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .295 | 4.58 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 121 | +0.87 | 3.71 | 320 | 78 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 78 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 78 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 77 |
| Phil Klein R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |