Matt Tiberia — OGILVIE

Matt Tiberia P Modesto Nuts

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 192 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%16.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	10	44	178	40	18	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	—
2025	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	10	44	178	40	18	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	—
2025	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	10	10	44	178	40	18	0	100%	4.4	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	0.0%	2.27	2.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	—	1	1	5	21	3	3	1	100%	5.0	16.1%	12.9%	3.2%	2.7%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	—	10	10	58	244	42	29	7	100%	5.8	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	2.7%	5.08	5.02	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	—	10	10	58	244	44	29	7	100%	5.8	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	2.8%	4.98	4.95	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	—	9	9	57	240	44	28	7	100%	6.3	18.3%	11.6%	6.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	—	4	4	25	106	18	13	3	100%	6.2	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	2.7%	5.08	5.02	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	—	6	6	38	160	29	19	4	100%	6.3	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	2.8%	4.98	4.95	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	—	7	7	44	186	34	22	5	100%	6.3	18.3%	11.6%	6.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	452	81	53	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	2.8%	4.99	4.59	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	151	99	24	100%	6.0	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	2.8%	4.99	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		10	10	44	178	30	21	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	46	200	815	136	97	0	100%	4.4	16.6%	11.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.27	3.21	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Tiberia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	16.1%	12.9%	2.7%	—	4.97	17.9%	6.2%	172	-0.28	—	—	—
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	90
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	85
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	84
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	84
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	84
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.32	14.3%	6.0%	217	-0.27	3.80	399	83
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	82
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	82
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	81
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	81
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	17.5%	12.0%	1.07	5.06
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91