Matt Tiberia
P
Modesto Nuts
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 192 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.19
FIP5.19
K%16.1%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 10 | 10 | 44 | 178 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.6% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 2.27 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 10 | 10 | 44 | 178 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 2.27 | 2.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | — | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 39 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | — | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 5.03 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | — | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 44 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | — | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 44 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | — | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | — | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.4% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 5.03 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | — | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | — | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | — | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 26 | 153 | 648 | 117 | 74 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.56 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 97 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 44 | 178 | 30 | 21 | 0 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.6% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 2.27 | 3.21 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 815 | 136 | 97 | 0 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.6% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 2.27 | 3.21 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Tiberia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.93 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 172 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 91 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 87 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 84 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 84 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.35 | 14.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 109 | 84 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 83 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | 5.68 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 29 | +1.60 | 3.93 | 223 | 83 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.49 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.34 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 217 | -0.15 | 3.71 | 361 | 82 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 82 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 82 |
| Michael Wagner R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 81 |
| Patrick McGuff R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 133 | 81 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .297 | 5.50 | 17.7% | 5.1% | 146 | +0.63 | 4.87 | 274 | 81 |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 81 |
| Sam Wolff R 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 80 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 80 |
| Evan Yates R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 80 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 79 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 79 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 57 | 17.6% | 11.6% | 1.08 | 5.00 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |