Victor Zarraga
P
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
LHP
5'10" / 160 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.8%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 16 | 5 | 43 | 196 | 54 | 30 | 0 | 19.2% | 18.7% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 2 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.94 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 42 | 181 | 40 | 19 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CHC | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 6 | 48 | 224 | 43 | 40 | 1 | 19.1% | 17.7% | 0.4% | 4.10 | 3.98 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 25 | 200 | 927 | 178 | 166 | 4 | 19.1% | 17.7% | 0.4% | 4.10 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Zarraga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.4% | 115 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 89 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 87 |
| Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 87 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 86 |
| Marlon Perez L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.31 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .250 | 4.12 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 103 | +0.81 | 3.31 | 145 | 86 |
| Austin Warner L 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 86 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 85 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 85 |
| Juliandry Higuera L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.83 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | .358 | 4.63 | 13.8% | -0.3% | 43 | +0.80 | 3.83 | 197 | 84 |
| Zach Morris L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.35 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +0.76 | 3.35 | 109 | 84 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 84 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.42 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .208 | 4.74 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 331 | 84 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 83 |
| Josh Simpson L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.34 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.21 | 3.13 | 220 | 82 |
| Luis Paulino L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.54 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .269 | 2.75 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 50 | -0.79 | 2.57 | 103 | 82 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 82 |
| Seth Clark L 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 82 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 82 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.81 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .250 | 4.70 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.89 | 3.81 | 255 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||