Victor Zarraga — OGILVIE

Victor Zarraga P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 160 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%20.5%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	43	196	54	30	0	31%	2.7	19.2%	18.7%	0.5%	0.0%	3.59	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	43	196	54	30	0	31%	2.7	19.2%	18.7%	0.5%	0.0%	3.59	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	5	43	196	54	30	0	31%	2.7	27.6%	15.3%	12.2%	0.0%	3.59	2.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	5	53	251	46	48	2	23%	2.4	13.1%	23.7%	-10.6%	1.2%	5.81	5.66	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	5	53	251	46	48	2	23%	2.4	13.1%	23.7%	-10.6%	1.2%	5.81	5.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CHC	4	2	9	37	8	5	0	50%	2.2	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	0.0%	4.00	2.99	—
2026	22	A RAW	CHC	18	3	44	214	38	43	2	17%	2.4	17.8%	20.1%	-2.3%	0.9%	6.18	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	51	0	54	226	49	33	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.4%	7.1%	2.8%	5.12	5.00	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	52	0	55	231	51	30	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.87	4.73	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CHC	25	0	26	110	24	16	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.4%	7.1%	2.8%	5.12	5.00	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	36	0	38	160	36	21	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.87	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	65	273	60	37	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.7%	4.97	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	115	22	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.7%	4.97	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		38	10	95	447	71	96	3	26%	2.5	15.8%	21.5%	-5.7%	0.7%	4.81	4.86	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	21	200	938	148	202	6	26%	2.5	15.8%	21.5%	-5.7%	0.7%	4.81	4.86	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Zarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	20.5%	16.9%	2.8%	—	4.86	21.9%	8.3%	108	-0.55	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	77
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	77
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	76
Jack O'Loughlin L 2022 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	17.0%	13.7%	2.6%	.269	4.81	17.0%	6.8%	239	-0.02	3.78	348	76
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	75
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	75
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	75
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	74
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	74
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	74
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	74
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	74
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	73
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	73
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	73
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	73
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	73
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.6%	14.2%	1.07	5.07
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41