Victor Zarraga
P
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Age 22
LHP
5'10" / 160 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.5%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 5 | 43 | 196 | 54 | 30 | 0 | 31% | 2.7 | 19.2% | 18.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 5 | 43 | 196 | 54 | 30 | 0 | 31% | 2.7 | 27.6% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 2.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 15 | 3 | 36 | 176 | 34 | 37 | 2 | 20% | 2.4 | 14.1% | 25.6% | -11.4% | 1.7% | 6.06 | 6.05 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 61 | 283 | 58 | 48 | 5 | — | — | 20.5% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 3.89 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 77 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 8 | 78 | 372 | 63 | 82 | 3 | 26% | 2.5 | 16.8% | 21.9% | -5.1% | 0.8% | 4.71 | 4.89 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 79 | 20 | 200 | 950 | 160 | 208 | 7 | 26% | 2.5 | 16.8% | 21.9% | -5.1% | 0.8% | 4.71 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Zarraga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 23.4% | 13.5% | 26 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Josh Simpson L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 82 |
| Juliandry Higuera L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.53 | 13.8% | -0.3% | 43 | +0.49 | 4.04 | 197 | 81 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 81 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.79 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .366 | 4.10 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.31 | 3.37 | 275 | 80 |
| Dante Biasi L 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 80 |
| Chase Watkins L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.8% | .346 | 4.29 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.48 | 3.27 | 232 | 80 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 80 |
| Jordan Woods L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 78 |
| Tucker Novotny L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .272 | 4.65 | 17.9% | 0.5% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.81 | 112 | 78 |
| Shane McCain L 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 78 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 77 |
| Cameron Ming L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .308 | 5.28 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.25 | 4.03 | 111 | 77 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 4.85 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.38 | 3.47 | 212 | 76 |
| Franklin Dacosta L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.37 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .272 | 6.15 | 17.0% | -2.0% | 16 | +1.78 | 2.83 | 247 | 75 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 75 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 75 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 74 |
| Jake Higginbotham L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .256 | 5.13 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 59 | -0.02 | 3.39 | 335 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 1.07 | 4.40 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |