Jose Lopez — OGILVIE

Jose Lopez P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%19.9%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	1	17	68	16	7	1	11%	1.9	16.0%	12.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	1	17	68	16	7	1	11%	1.9	16.0%	12.9%	3.1%	2.1%	2.65	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	9	1	17	68	16	7	1	11%	1.9	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	1.5%	2.65	3.22	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	8	20	95	17	15	0	80%	2.0	12.2%	19.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	5.75	4.57	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	8	20	95	17	15	0	80%	2.0	12.2%	19.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	5.75	4.57	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	8	20	95	17	15	0	80%	2.0	17.9%	15.8%	2.1%	0.0%	5.75	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	18	8	61	281	55	44	12	44%	3.4	14.0%	18.9%	-4.9%	5.7%	6.82	7.46	—
YTD	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	18	8	61	281	55	44	12	44%	3.4	14.0%	18.9%	-4.9%	5.7%	6.82	7.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	NYM	9	2	27	124	23	18	5	22%	3.0	18.5%	14.5%	4.0%	4.0%	4.94	5.59	—
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	9	6	33	157	32	26	7	67%	3.7	20.4%	16.6%	3.8%	4.5%	8.37	5.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	260	55	35	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.5%	7.7%	2.9%	5.09	4.98	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	60	0	63	266	58	32	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.86	4.73	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	29	0	30	127	27	17	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.5%	7.7%	2.9%	5.09	4.98	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	42	0	44	186	41	22	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.86	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	0	74	314	68	40	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.95	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	108	24	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.95	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		37	17	98	444	62	81	18	46%	2.6	13.9%	18.2%	-4.3%	3.9%	5.88	6.39	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	35	200	906	126	165	36	46%	2.6	13.9%	18.2%	-4.3%	3.9%	5.88	6.39	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	19.9%	15.6%	2.9%	—	4.85	21.5%	8.7%	125	-0.52	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	87
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	79
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	79
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	79
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	78
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	78
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	77
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	77
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	77
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	77
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.4%	13.0%	1.11	5.01
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64