Miguel Flores

C DSL Astros Orange

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 177 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1656ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	37	.156/.270/.219	0	0	-10	—	.091/.189/.121
2025	20	ROKDSL Astros Or…	125	.241/.344/.324	1	0	18	—	.150/.232/.186
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBHOU	235	.222/.288/.299	2	2	67	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	23	.228/.294/.315	0	0	71	0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBHOU	69	.231/.297/.325	1	1	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Whiff%99

Z-Con%99

K%95

Chase%65

ISO41

wOBA37

CompsBryan Lavastida (age 22) · Blake Hunt (age 22) · Jeferson Morales (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .285 / .296

PA41

HR0

K%23

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	37	32	5	2	0	0	3	9	2	0	0	156	270	219	489	62	217	24	8	239	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	125	108	26	4	1	1	13	13	4	0	0	241	344	324	668	83	266	10	10	312	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	37	33	3	1	0	0	2	11	2	0	0	91	189	121	310	30	143	30	5	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	125	113	17	2	1	0	8	16	4	0	0	150	232	186	418	35	170	13	6	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	37	33	3	1	0	0	2	11	2	0	0	91	189	121	310	30	136	30	5	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	37	32	5	2	0	0	3	9	2	0	0	156	270	219	489	62	217	24	8	239	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	125	113	17	2	1	0	8	16	4	0	0	150	232	186	418	35	175	13	6	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	125	108	26	4	1	1	13	13	4	0	0	241	344	324	668	83	266	10	10	312	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	37	33	3	1	0	0	2	11	2	0	0	91	189	121	310	30	143	30	5	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	125	112	17	2	1	0	8	16	4	0	0	152	232	188	419	36	170	13	6	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	37	33	3	1	0	0	2	11	2	0	0	91	189	121	310	30	143	30	5	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	125	112	17	2	1	0	8	16	4	0	0	152	232	188	419	36	170	13	6	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	235	213	48	8	2	2	16	54	4	2	1	222	288	299	586	77	286	23	7	268	67	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	68	62	14	2	1	1	5	16	1	1	0	225	291	310	601	85	288	24	7	274	71	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	149	135	31	5	1	2	11	34	2	1	1	228	294	321	615	93	289	23	7	279	75	-4	-0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	215	195	46	8	2	3	15	49	3	2	1	229	296	329	625	99	289	23	7	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	275	249	58	10	2	4	20	62	4	3	1	231	298	336	634	105	289	23	7	286	80	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	312	282	65	11	2	5	23	71	4	3	1	230	298	337	635	106	289	23	7	287	80	-7	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	333	301	69	12	2	5	24	77	5	3	2	229	296	332	628	103	288	23	7	284	78	-9	-0	-1	+6	+7	0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	336	305	69	12	2	5	24	78	4	3	2	226	293	326	619	99	286	23	7	280	76	-10	-0	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	333	302	67	11	2	4	24	79	4	3	3	223	289	318	607	95	284	24	7	275	73	-11	-1	-2	+6	+7	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	23	21	5	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	228	294	315	609	87	292	22	9	277	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	69	63	16	3	1	1	5	16	1	1	0	231	297	325	622	95	293	23	7	282	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	111	100	23	4	1	1	8	25	2	1	0	232	299	333	632	101	293	23	7	286	78	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	149	135	32	6	1	2	11	34	2	1	1	234	300	340	640	106	293	23	7	289	80	-4	-0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	169	153	36	6	1	3	12	39	2	2	1	233	301	341	641	107	293	23	7	289	80	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	181	164	38	7	1	3	13	42	2	2	1	231	298	336	634	105	292	23	7	287	78	-5	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	178	161	37	7	1	2	13	42	2	1	1	229	296	330	625	101	290	24	7	283	76	-5	-0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	175	158	35	6	1	2	13	41	2	1	2	226	292	322	614	96	289	23	7	278	73	-6	-1	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1055	955	222	40	7	14	77	244	13	9	6	232	299	333	632	101	296	23	7	285	72	-29	-1	-2	+19	+23	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	137	25	4	9	47	150	8	6	4	233	298	335	633	102	296	23	7	285	72	-18	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2224	2014	446	75	15	29	159	502	34	19	11	221	290	317	606	95	279	23	7	275	72	-57	-1	-4	+37	+45	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	130	22	4	8	46	147	10	6	3	221	288	312	601	92	279	23	7	275	72	-18	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 125 PAwOBA .301 → .195 (−106)K% 10.4% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.40%	÷1.009	×1.220	—	—	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.60%	÷1.014	×0.700	—	×0.985	6.53%
HBP% /PA	3.20%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	2.21%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.981	×0.985	14.04%
Doubles /BIP	4.21%	÷1.091	×0.600	×0.981	×0.985	2.24%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.981	×0.985	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	1.05%	÷1.492	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.33%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .301 → .195; ISO .083 → .042; BABIP .266 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 37 PAwOBA .234 → .154 (−80)K% 24.3% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.32%	÷0.977	×1.220	—	—	30.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.11%	÷1.002	×0.700	—	×0.995	5.64%
HBP% /PA	5.41%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	3.76%
Singles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.010	×0.680	—	×0.995	8.73%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷0.937	×0.600	—	×0.995	5.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.008	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .234 → .154; ISO .062 → .039; BABIP .217 → .143. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.7	1,096	15	10	229	292	329	+20	+20	1.8	1.8
/162	664	9	6	+11.9	+12.1	1.1	pk7: 2
#4Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Gary Bennett'95-'08 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,876 PA	2.8	1,876	22	6	232*	290*	317*	+33	+0	0.1	0.5
/162	664	8	2	+11.8	+0.0	0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Flores (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	220/285/296	76	286	0	0	23%	7%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryan Lavastida 2021 · A	22	47→44	38→45	46→55	46	221/290/302	81	298	5	8	26%	8%	70	-0.8	224/291/339	115	293	11	13	26%	7%	79	-0.2	221/293/333	112	282	11	27	24%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	42	40→50	49→40	44	206/262/301	95	270	7	6	26%	6%	59	-1.6	193/252/308	115	279	11	4	33%	6%	58	-1.7	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	42→47	40→45	47→50	52	201/291/303	102	246	6	8	20%	9%	72	-0.7	201/282/330	129	264	13	9	28%	8%	75	-0.5	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Stevie Berman 2017 · A	22	45	37→45	48→40	45	211/277/283	72	278	4	6	24%	7%	61	-1.5	211/270/298	87	265	7	4	22%	6%	61	-1.5	204/292/318	114	244	13	2	21%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2021 · A	22	43	36→45	50→40	46	202/265/271	69	260	4	5	23%	7%	53	-2.1	217/264/312	95	267	7	4	21%	5%	62	-1.4	233/269/347	114	277	11	0	20%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Aramis Garcia 2015 · A	22	44→42	38→50	49→45	45	207/268/289	81	284	4	6	27%	7%	59	-1.7	212/264/332	120	287	14	3	30%	6%	68	-1.0	213/253/349	135	283	17	0	31%	4%	65	-0.7
✕Nick Fortes 2019 · A	22	43→45	37→45	49→45	50	200/268/274	74	240	4	6	18%	8%	55	-1.9	201/265/295	94	250	8	5	22%	6%	59	-1.6	221/288/344	123	250	15	8	18%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Dustin Garneau 2010 · A	22	44→38	39→50	51→45	47	208/287/296	88	277	5	6	25%	8%	68	-1.0	202/269/324	122	253	11	5	24%	8%	68	-1.0	178/254/344	166	215	21	0	29%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	290	5	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	200/254/277	77	265	5	3	25%	5%	51	-2.3	195/253/281	87	245	8	0	23%	5%	49	-0.8
✕Carlos Narváez 2021 · A	22	47→45	38→45	48→45	46	219/291/300	81	314	5	6	30%	9%	70	-0.8	192/278/307	115	300	13	5	37%	9%	68	-1.0	214/298/346	132	289	15	6	29%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Robert Mullen 2018 · A	22	43	38→50	51→45	46	203/268/288	85	276	4	6	27%	8%	58	-1.7	214/263/324	110	299	11	4	31%	5%	65	-1.2	211/252/341	130	285	17	0	32%	3%	63	-0.6
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	43	40	46→40	46	208/282/298	90	275	7	5	26%	8%	67	-1.1	197/256/268	71	266	4	4	26%	6%	49	-2.4	242/298/332	90	292	6	3	18%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44→45	39→45	49→30	43	213/268/301	88	286	6	7	27%	6%	61	-1.5	234/265/337	103	307	9	2	26%	4%	68	-1.0	244/279/354	110	291	9	0	19%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Luis Caicuto 2024 · A	21	48	37→45	46→50	46	223/294/301	78	298	4	6	25%	8%	72	-0.7	210/278/278	68	274	4	6	23%	6%	61	-1.5	197/271/279	82	244	7	8	21%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Luis Alvarez 2012 · A	22	45	39→40	42→45	44	215/273/300	85	266	6	5	21%	6%	63	-1.3	220/272/344	124	281	13	5	26%	5%	74	-0.6	209/252/367	157	250	21	0	26%	3%	69	-0.2
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	40	38→40	48→30	45	194/260/273	78	263	5	4	27%	8%	53	-2.1	219/269/310	91	281	9	5	24%	6%	63	-1.3	222/267/302	80	270	10	1	21%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A	22	40	37→55	50→30	45	190/265/263	73	265	4	7	28%	8%	53	-2.1	210/293/324	114	277	11	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	206/302/346	140	255	16	3	25%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→47	39→45	48→50	45	184/277/270	87	267	6	10	31%	8%	60	-1.6	204/274/301	97	277	7	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/284/310	97	279	9	16	25%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2021 · A	22	45	38→40	47→45	46	212/265/289	77	262	5	6	21%	6%	57	-1.8	220/266/308	88	269	9	6	21%	5%	62	-1.4	216/277/308	92	237	10	8	14%	7%	65	-0.5

Miguel Flores

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps