Michael Carpenter

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	AMIN	18	17	54	4.70	3.19	23.8%	9.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.33
2026	22	MIX3 levels	11	9	16	14.36	5.01	21.8%	16.1%	—	K 18.9% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	9	9	52	5.18	5.18	17.8%	12.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	4	4	23	5.01	4.96	18.9%	11.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	36	4.88	4.83	19.6%	10.8%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsBailey Horn (age 23) · Jeremy Wu-Yelland (age 22) · Jordan Woods (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 132

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%17.8%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	17	54	244	58	23	4	94%	3.0	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.4%	4.70	4.33	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	17	54	244	58	23	4	94%	3.0	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.4%	4.70	4.33	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	17	54	244	58	23	4	94%	3.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	1.6%	4.70	3.19	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	9	16	87	19	14	2	82%	1.4	18.9%	10.8%	8.0%	4.7%	14.36	5.47	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	9	16	87	19	14	2	82%	1.4	18.9%	10.8%	8.0%	4.7%	14.36	5.47	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	9	16	87	19	14	2	82%	1.4	21.8%	16.1%	5.7%	2.3%	14.36	5.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	9	9	52	220	39	27	7	100%	5.8	17.8%	12.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	54	227	43	26	7	100%	5.4	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	3.0%	5.01	4.96	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	230	45	25	7	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.83	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	230	46	25	7	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	226	45	24	7	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	23	97	18	11	3	100%	5.8	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	3.0%	5.01	4.96	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	36	152	30	16	5	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.83	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	43	182	36	19	5	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	39	21	6	100%	5.8	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	148	625	124	68	19	100%	5.9	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.45	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	92	26	100%	5.9	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.45	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		29	26	69	331	59	37	10	90%	2.4	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	3.0%	6.88	4.63	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	75	200	955	171	106	29	90%	2.4	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	3.0%	6.88	4.63	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Carpenter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	17.8%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.86	19.5%	8.6%	162	-0.32	—	—	—
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	78
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	77
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	75
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	75
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	75
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	73
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	73
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	72
Kyle Backhus L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.280	3.49	23.1%	11.6%	153	-0.82	2.78	268	72
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	70
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	70
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	69
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	69
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	69
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	69
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	68
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	68
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	19.3%	11.1%	1.16	4.93
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*