Gabriel Paez — OGILVIE

Gabriel Paez P FCL Rays

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 183 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141149vR 157

ERA6.54

FIP6.54

K%20.6%

BB%25.3%

K-BB%-4.7%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	4	0	4	23	6	8	0	0%	1.0	26.1%	34.8%	-8.7%	0.0%	18.00	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	4	0	4	23	6	8	0	0%	1.0	26.1%	34.8%	-8.7%	0.0%	18.00	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	4	0	4	23	6	8	0	0%	1.0	26.1%	34.8%	-8.7%	0.0%	18.00	6.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	5	23	113	24	29	0	42%	1.9	14.4%	32.1%	-17.6%	0.0%	7.15	5.94	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	5	23	113	24	29	0	42%	1.9	14.4%	32.1%	-17.6%	0.0%	7.15	5.94	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	5	23	113	24	29	0	42%	1.9	21.2%	25.7%	-4.4%	0.0%	7.15	4.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	8	6	21	108	21	16	2	75%	2.7	13.2%	18.5%	-5.3%	2.6%	6.75	5.75	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	8	6	21	108	21	16	2	75%	2.7	13.2%	18.5%	-5.3%	2.6%	6.75	5.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	TB	8	6	21	108	21	16	2	75%	2.7	19.4%	14.8%	4.6%	1.9%	6.75	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	5	5	22	92	20	19	3	100%	4.4	21.3%	20.8%	0.6%	2.9%	6.05	5.88	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	11	46	10	10	1	100%	5.5	21.3%	20.8%	0.6%	2.9%	6.05	5.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	45	10	9	1	100%	5.4	21.3%	20.8%	0.6%	2.9%	6.05	5.50	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	186	167	19	100%	4.8	21.3%	20.8%	0.6%	2.9%	6.05	5.50	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		24	11	48	244	37	64	3	46%	2.0	15.0%	26.3%	-11.3%	1.1%	7.88	5.80	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	46	200	1017	153	268	12	46%	2.0	15.0%	26.3%	-11.3%	1.1%	7.88	5.80	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.54	20.6%	25.3%	2.9%	—	5.88	21.3%	0.5%	22	-0.66	—	—	—
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	78
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	76
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	74
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	74
Derek Corro L 2023 · 6.42 FIP	18	SP-	6.42	14.4%	26.5%	2.1%	.432	5.20	15.9%	-3.8%	67	-1.22	4.54	128	72
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	71
Lewis Sifontes L 2023 · 7.37 FIP	17	SP-	7.37	12.5%	20.2%	5.0%	.329	5.80	15.9%	-1.6%	95	-1.57	4.81	123	70
Roberth Fernandez L 2015 · 5.66 FIP	20	SW	5.66	11.4%	16.2%	2.7%	.356	4.92	14.7%	6.3%	60	-0.74	4.92	103	70
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	70
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	69
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	69
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	68
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	68
Javier Navas L 2017 · 6.10 FIP	19	SW	6.10	11.1%	19.7%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	103	68
Levi Prater L 2021 · 7.22 FIP	22	SP-	7.22	23.1%	24.1%	5.5%	.338	6.76	15.8%	-7.7%	42	-0.46	6.76	110	67
Alexander Beltre L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	20	SW	6.04	15.5%	15.2%	4.2%	.244	4.75	15.1%	3.5%	12	-1.29	2.75	106	66
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	66
Adam Shoemaker L 2023 · 6.29 FIP	20	SP-	6.29	15.5%	19.2%	3.8%	.304	5.00	19.6%	-2.9%	144	-1.29	4.41	246	65
Marino Santy L 2022 · 7.53 FIP	20	SP-	7.53	12.8%	43.5%	0.0%	.150	4.62	18.4%	-0.9%	178	-2.91	3.87	269	65