Luis Burgos — OGILVIE

Luis Burgos P Stockton Ports

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 186 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%15.0%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%-1.2%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	14	2	28	127	23	19	1	14%	2.0	12.3%	18.7%	-6.4%	1.2%	5.14	5.06	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	14	2	28	127	23	19	1	14%	2.0	12.3%	18.7%	-6.4%	1.2%	5.14	5.06	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	14	2	28	127	23	19	1	14%	2.0	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	0.8%	5.14	3.96	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	8	52	211	48	23	2	73%	4.7	15.5%	13.6%	1.8%	1.2%	2.44	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	8	52	211	48	23	2	73%	4.7	15.5%	13.6%	1.8%	1.2%	2.44	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	11	8	52	211	48	23	2	73%	4.7	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	0.9%	2.44	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	18	6	46	249	32	28	5	33%	2.6	9.5%	13.3%	-3.8%	2.6%	10.17	5.41	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	18	6	46	249	32	28	5	33%	2.6	9.5%	13.3%	-3.8%	2.6%	10.17	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	OAK	18	6	46	249	32	28	5	33%	2.6	12.9%	11.2%	1.6%	2.0%	10.17	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	46	0	49	206	34	30	6	0%	1.1	16.6%	14.4%	2.2%	2.8%	5.55	5.45	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	49	0	51	216	39	28	6	0%	1.0	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	2.8%	5.26	5.12	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	17	15	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	14.4%	2.2%	2.8%	5.55	5.45	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	35	0	37	156	28	20	4	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	2.8%	5.26	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	259	45	35	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.6%	4.0%	2.8%	5.37	4.87	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	114	23	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.6%	4.0%	2.8%	5.37	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		43	16	126	587	72	86	11	37%	2.9	12.3%	14.6%	-2.3%	1.8%	5.87	4.90	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	25	200	934	115	136	17	37%	2.9	12.3%	14.6%	-2.3%	1.8%	5.87	4.90	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Burgos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	15.0%	16.2%	2.9%	—	5.28	17.4%	3.7%	100	-0.56	—	—	—
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	88
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	87
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	86
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	84
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	84
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	84
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	83
Dominic Hambley R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	20	SW	5.81	16.4%	20.4%	2.8%	.318	4.66	17.9%	-4.3%	73	-1.15	4.44	131	83
Tyler Driver R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	20	SW	5.26	15.0%	13.8%	3.1%	.312	5.68	14.5%	1.4%	88	+0.42	5.17	180	83
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	82
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Samuel Vásquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SW	5.15	13.3%	17.2%	1.8%	.220	6.13	12.7%	-8.3%	49	+0.98	4.01	273	82
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	82
Dante Mendoza R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SW	5.90	14.9%	14.1%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	113	82
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	82
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	82
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	81
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	16.8%	14.3%	1.09	5.51
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91