Samuel Vásquez — OGILVIE

Samuel Vásquez P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 233 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%16.9%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Indians/Brewers	12	12	41	196	34	21	1	100%	3.4	11.8%	13.4%	-1.6%	0.7%	5.88	4.19	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Indians/Brewers	12	12	41	196	34	21	1	100%	3.4	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	0.5%	5.88	3.29	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	11	5	36	153	30	21	2	45%	3.3	13.3%	17.2%	-3.8%	1.8%	4.21	5.15	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	11	5	36	153	30	21	2	45%	3.3	19.6%	13.7%	5.9%	1.3%	4.21	3.90	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Indians	12	7	27	133	22	23	3	58%	2.2	11.2%	21.6%	-10.4%	2.1%	8.33	6.05	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Indians	12	7	27	133	22	23	3	58%	2.2	16.5%	17.3%	-0.8%	2.3%	8.33	5.47	—
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	0	22	117	23	20	3	0%	1.1	14.5%	20.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	9.55	6.23	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	0	22	117	23	20	3	0%	1.1	19.7%	17.1%	2.6%	2.6%	9.55	5.55	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	35	0	42	188	47	25	2	0%	1.2	18.5%	15.7%	2.8%	1.4%	4.50	4.27	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	35	0	42	188	47	25	2	0%	1.2	18.5%	15.7%	2.8%	1.4%	4.50	4.27	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	35	0	42	188	47	25	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	1.1%	4.50	3.27	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	245	53	41	4	0%	1.3	14.4%	20.8%	-6.4%	1.7%	4.05	5.43	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	245	53	41	4	0%	1.3	14.4%	20.8%	-6.4%	1.7%	4.05	5.43	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	53	245	53	41	4	0%	1.3	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	1.6%	4.05	4.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	57	244	49	29	2	0%	1.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	1.0%	3.16	4.01	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	57	244	49	29	2	0%	1.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	1.0%	3.16	4.01	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	57	244	49	29	2	0%	1.2	20.1%	11.9%	8.2%	0.8%	3.16	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	3	16	2	5	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	3	16	2	5	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	4	0	3	16	2	5	0	0%	0.8	12.5%	31.2%	-18.8%	0.0%	9.00	6.00	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	48	0	50	213	37	31	6	0%	1.1	17.5%	14.4%	3.1%	2.7%	5.27	5.28	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	47	0	49	207	37	29	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	14.2%	3.7%	2.8%	5.26	5.30	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	18	0	19	80	14	12	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	14.4%	3.1%	2.7%	5.27	5.28	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	22	17	3	0%	1.0	17.9%	14.2%	3.7%	2.8%	5.26	5.30	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	203	36	29	6	0%	1.0	17.7%	14.3%	3.5%	2.7%	5.26	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	120	25	0%	1.1	17.7%	14.3%	3.5%	2.7%	5.26	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		181	24	282	1292	186	223	20	13%	1.6	14.4%	17.2%	-2.8%	1.5%	5.11	4.92	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	17	200	917	132	158	14	13%	1.6	14.4%	17.2%	-2.8%	1.5%	5.11	4.92	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Vásquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	16.9%	14.9%	2.6%	—	5.29	17.7%	3.4%	100	-0.06	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	88
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	85
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	85
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	84
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	81
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	17.5%	14.5%	1.04	5.29
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82