Emilio Obispo — OGILVIE

Emilio Obispo P St. Lucie Mets

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%22.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+1.2	$5M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$4M	+$1.0M
Totals		$22M		$34M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	9	36	158	41	12	1	100%	4.0	17.6%	9.5%	8.2%	0.9%	3.47	3.30	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	9	36	158	41	12	1	100%	4.0	17.6%	9.5%	8.2%	0.9%	3.47	3.30	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	9	9	36	158	41	12	1	100%	4.0	25.9%	7.6%	18.4%	0.6%	3.47	2.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	20	16	80	350	82	36	4	80%	4.0	17.6%	12.0%	5.5%	1.5%	2.58	3.94	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	20	16	80	350	82	36	4	80%	4.0	17.6%	12.0%	5.5%	1.5%	2.58	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	NYM	14	10	53	229	54	24	2	71%	3.8	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	0.9%	2.02	2.92	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	NYM	6	6	27	121	28	12	2	100%	4.5	23.1%	9.9%	13.2%	1.7%	3.67	3.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	83	349	79	31	10	100%	4.9	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.31	+0.6
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	87	366	84	32	10	100%	4.8	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.26	4.20	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	91	384	91	31	11	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.13	4.04	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	94	399	97	31	11	100%	5.2	24.4%	7.9%	16.6%	2.8%	4.01	3.92	+1.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	97	409	102	31	11	100%	5.7	25.0%	7.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.90	3.83	+1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	98	414	105	31	11	100%	5.8	25.4%	7.5%	17.9%	2.7%	3.83	3.78	+1.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	98	414	106	31	11	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	2.7%	3.78	3.75	+1.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	96	407	104	31	11	100%	6.0	25.6%	7.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.79	3.79	+1.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	94	395	101	30	11	100%	5.8	25.4%	7.7%	17.7%	2.9%	3.84	3.88	+1.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	89	377	95	30	11	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	3.0%	3.94	4.01	+0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	84	355	88	29	11	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.2%	16.6%	3.2%	4.09	4.19	+0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	331	87	26	11	100%	6.0	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	3.4%	4.11	4.12	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	72	306	79	25	11	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	3.7%	4.25	4.34	+0.5
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	41	173	39	16	5	100%	5.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.31	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	63	266	61	23	8	100%	4.8	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.26	4.20	+0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	77	325	77	27	9	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.13	4.04	+0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	85	359	88	28	10	100%	5.3	24.4%	7.9%	16.6%	2.7%	4.01	3.92	+1.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	89	376	94	29	10	100%	5.6	25.0%	7.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.90	3.83	+1.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	92	388	99	29	10	100%	5.8	25.4%	7.5%	17.9%	2.7%	3.83	3.78	+1.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	93	393	100	29	11	100%	5.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	2.7%	3.78	3.75	+1.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	92	388	99	29	11	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.79	3.79	+1.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	89	376	96	29	11	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.7%	17.7%	2.9%	3.84	3.88	+1.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	85	359	90	28	11	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	3.0%	3.94	4.01	+0.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	80	338	84	28	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	8.2%	16.6%	3.2%	4.09	4.19	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	83	24	11	100%	6.2	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	3.4%	4.11	4.12	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	69	291	76	24	11	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	3.7%	4.24	4.33	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	181	1028	4339	1084	343	127	100%	5.7	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	2.9%	3.99	3.60	+16.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	211	67	25	100%	5.7	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	2.9%	3.99	3.60	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		29	25	117	508	89	57	7	86%	4.0	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	1.3%	2.85	3.74	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	871	153	98	11	86%	4.0	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	1.3%	2.85	3.74	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emilio Obispo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.0%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.18	23.1%	14.5%	260	-0.25	—	—	—
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	88
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	87
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	84
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	82
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	82
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	81
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	81
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	81
Mikell Manzano R 2022 · 3.55 FIP	19	SP-	3.55	23.3%	9.0%	2.3%	.388	4.27	9.9%	1.4%	72	+0.72	2.58	175	81
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	81
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
Quinn Priester R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	18	SP	3.26	18.0%	8.9%	1.0%	.304	3.67	18.9%	9.3%	173	+0.41	3.22	651	80
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	80
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	79
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	79
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP	4.03	24.5%	12.8%	2.5%	.326	5.91	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.88	4.03	272	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	85	24.8%	8.0%	1.13	4.02
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70