Emilio Obispo

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#438ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	9	9	36	3.47	2.19	25.9%	7.6%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.30
2026	19	MIX2 levels	20	16	80	2.58	3.05	23.4%	10.3%	—	K 17.6% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	20	MLBNYM	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	18.9%	11.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBNYM	6	6	30	4.67	4.60	20.1%	10.6%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBNYM	9	9	45	4.48	4.37	21.3%	9.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 9.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 83%

CompsJairo Garcia (age 20) · José López (age 21) · Logan Gragg (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%18.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	9	36	158	41	12	1	100%	4.0	17.6%	9.5%	8.2%	0.9%	3.47	3.30	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	9	9	36	158	41	12	1	100%	4.0	17.6%	9.5%	8.2%	0.9%	3.47	3.30	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	9	9	36	158	41	12	1	100%	4.0	25.9%	7.6%	18.4%	0.6%	3.47	2.19	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	80	350	82	36	4	80%	4.0	17.6%	12.0%	5.5%	1.5%	2.58	3.94	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	80	350	82	36	4	80%	4.0	17.6%	12.0%	5.5%	1.5%	2.58	3.94	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	80	350	82	36	4	80%	4.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	1.1%	2.58	3.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	11.6%	7.4%	2.7%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	62	261	52	28	7	100%	4.7	20.1%	10.6%	9.4%	2.7%	4.67	4.60	+0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	62	261	56	25	7	100%	5.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	2.6%	4.48	4.37	+0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	62	261	58	24	7	100%	5.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	2.6%	4.32	4.21	+0.9
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	62	261	59	23	7	100%	5.6	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.6%	4.19	4.10	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	60	254	59	22	7	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.10	4.04	+1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	61	256	60	22	7	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	2.6%	4.05	4.02	+1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	250	58	22	7	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.6%	4.05	4.06	+0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	56	238	55	21	7	100%	6.3	23.2%	8.8%	14.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.14	+0.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	58	243	61	20	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	2.9%	4.05	4.00	+1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	52	219	54	19	7	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.5%	16.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.18	+0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	46	193	47	17	6	100%	5.7	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	3.3%	4.28	4.38	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	40	169	40	16	6	100%	5.7	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.6%	4.48	4.61	+0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	30	127	25	13	3	100%	5.0	20.1%	10.6%	9.4%	2.7%	4.67	4.60	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	45	190	41	19	5	100%	5.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	2.6%	4.48	4.37	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	52	220	49	20	6	100%	5.2	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	2.6%	4.32	4.21	+0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	55	232	53	20	6	100%	5.5	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.6%	4.19	4.10	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	55	232	54	20	6	100%	6.1	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.10	4.04	+0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	56	236	55	20	6	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	2.6%	4.05	4.02	+0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	56	236	55	20	6	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.6%	4.05	4.06	+0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	54	228	53	20	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.8%	14.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.14	+0.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	55	232	58	19	7	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	2.9%	4.05	4.00	+0.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	49	207	51	18	6	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.5%	16.0%	3.1%	4.13	4.18	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	44	186	45	17	6	100%	6.3	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	3.3%	4.28	4.38	+0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	38	160	38	15	6	100%	6.3	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.6%	4.48	4.61	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	589	2488	576	222	70	100%	5.7	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	2.8%	4.21	3.81	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	196	75	24	100%	5.7	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	2.8%	4.21	3.81	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		29	25	117	508	89	57	7	86%	4.0	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	1.3%	2.85	3.74	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	871	153	98	11	86%	4.0	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	1.3%	2.85	3.74	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 53 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.82 (+0.90)K% 23.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.58%	—	×0.740	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.48%	—	×1.180	12.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.14%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 27 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.17 (+0.86)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.14%	—	×0.770	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.150	11.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Mets Orange · 36 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.30 (+1.08)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.680	17.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×1.250	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷0.996	×1.400	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emilio Obispo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	18.9%	11.6%	2.7%	—	4.39	21.2%	11.3%	185	-0.44	—	—	—
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	91
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	88
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	87
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	86
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	86
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	85
Bishop Letson R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	19	SP	4.80	16.4%	12.4%	2.8%	.222	4.00	20.2%	9.3%	132	-0.80	2.44	195	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	84
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	84
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	84
Homer Cruz R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	19	SP	3.75	16.4%	11.6%	1.0%	.309	4.57	18.4%	4.2%	64	+0.82	3.75	127	84
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	84
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	84
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	84
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	84
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	56	22.7%	9.2%	1.08	4.28
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Kyle Farnsworth ('14)	4.9	62	22.5%	9.6%	1.20	4.26
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*