John Holobetz

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #377MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX3 levels	23	19	125	3.03	2.70	24.0%	4.0%	—	K 18.5% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.34
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	23	119	4.07	3.54	26.3%	7.2%	—	K 21.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	15	15	85	4.17	4.17	20.4%	5.4%	0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBOS	8	8	49	4.12	4.12	20.8%	5.6%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	12	12	70	4.15	4.16	20.9%	5.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control59Command58FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 78%

CompsAndy Ferguson (age 26) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Ryan Watson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%20.4%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5560

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.2%	3.03	3.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	18.5%	4.6%	14.0%	2.2%	3.03	3.34	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	125	499	120	20	10	83%	5.4	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	2.0%	3.03	2.70	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	119	502	132	36	16	88%	4.6	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	3.7%	4.07	4.26	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	119	502	132	36	16	88%	4.6	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	3.7%	4.07	4.26	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	119	502	132	36	16	88%	4.6	26.3%	7.2%	19.1%	3.2%	4.07	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	15	15	85	359	73	19	11	100%	5.7	20.4%	5.4%	15.0%	3.1%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	474	98	27	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	5.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.16	4.16	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	110	467	97	27	15	100%	6.1	20.9%	5.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.19	4.20	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	453	94	28	15	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.29	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	102	432	89	27	15	100%	6.0	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	3.4%	4.35	4.42	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	96	407	82	27	15	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.7%	13.6%	3.6%	4.50	4.59	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	379	75	27	15	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	351	68	26	14	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	4.1%	4.88	5.02	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	43	12	6	100%	6.1	20.8%	5.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.12	4.12	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	70	296	62	17	9	100%	5.8	20.9%	5.9%	15.0%	3.1%	4.15	4.16	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	71	21	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.21	4.25	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	84	355	73	23	12	100%	6.0	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.37	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	83	350	71	23	12	100%	5.9	20.2%	6.7%	13.6%	3.5%	4.45	4.54	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	80	338	67	24	13	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.7%	4.63	4.75	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	75	317	61	23	13	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	4.0%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	522	2202	448	143	76	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.5%	13.8%	3.4%	4.40	4.09	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	55	29	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.5%	13.8%	3.4%	4.40	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		49	42	244	1001	201	60	30	86%	5.0	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	3.0%	3.54	3.80	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	34	200	820	165	49	24	86%	5.0	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	3.0%	3.54	3.80	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Holobetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	20.4%	5.4%	3.1%	—	4.22	20.8%	15.0%	330	+0.05	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	89
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	88
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	87
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	83
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	82
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	81
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	80
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	80
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	80
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	79
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	79
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	79
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	79
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	79
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	79
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	79
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	98	20.4%	6.3%	1.33	4.38
Matt Shoemaker ('21)	3.3	83	21.0%	6.3%	1.36	4.24
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24
Zach Plesac ('24)	2.4	96	18.1%	6.5%	1.43	4.31
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Ad Brennan ('10-'18, 6 WAR*)	3.4	113	18.9%*	6.9%*	1.31*	4.13*
Elmer Ponder ('17-'21, 4 WAR*)	1.9	95	18.2%*	6.0%*	1.14*	4.07*