Austin Cates — OGILVIE

Austin Cates P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%19.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.1%	3.12	3.75	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	2.3%	3.12	3.13	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	16	16	73	317	69	40	8	100%	4.6	17.3%	14.1%	3.3%	3.1%	4.81	5.12	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	12	12	65	274	53	28	8	100%	5.4	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.65	4.65	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	138	591	122	68	16	—	—	20.7%	11.5%	9.3%	2.7%	4.73	4.90	+0.8
2026 FULL	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.65	4.27	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	14	14	79	332	68	33	9	100%	5.6	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.53	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	TOR	14	14	80	337	71	32	9	100%	5.7	21.1%	9.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+0.5
2029	26	MLB	TOR	13	13	80	337	72	32	9	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.45	4.43	+0.5
2030	27	MLB	TOR	13	13	78	331	71	32	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.46	+0.4
2031	28	MLB	TOR	13	13	76	321	68	31	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.55	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	TOR	12	12	73	307	65	31	10	100%	6.1	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.68	+0.1
2033	30	MLB	TOR	11	11	68	288	60	30	10	100%	6.2	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.3%	4.76	4.85	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	TOR	11	11	64	269	55	29	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.7%	9.7%	3.5%	4.94	5.06	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	TOR	6	6	35	148	30	14	4	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
2028	25	MLB	TOR	9	9	53	224	47	22	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+0.1
2029	26	MLB	TOR	10	10	63	266	57	25	7	100%	6.3	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.45	4.43	+0.1
2030	27	MLB	TOR	11	11	67	283	61	27	8	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.46	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	TOR	11	11	68	287	61	28	8	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.55	+0.1
2032	29	MLB	TOR	11	11	66	279	59	28	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.68	-0.0
2033	30	MLB	TOR	10	10	63	266	55	27	9	100%	6.3	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.3%	4.76	4.85	-0.2
2034	31	MLB	TOR	10	10	59	249	51	27	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.7%	9.7%	3.5%	4.94	5.06	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			80	80	476	2009	422	199	61	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.25	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	177	84	26	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.25	+2.7
Career	—			41	39	183	747	140	83	19	95%	4.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	2.6%	3.79	4.34	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			45	43	200	818	153	91	21	95%	4.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	2.6%	3.79	4.34	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Cates (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	19.5%	10.1%	2.8%	—	4.47	21.0%	11.3%	238	-0.18	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	92
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	91
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	89
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	88
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	16.5%	9.4%	3.6%	.288	5.29	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.41	4.52	340	88
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	20.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.266	5.22	16.1%	2.8%	185	+0.56	3.71	370	88
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	88
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	87
Thomas Farr R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	18.0%	9.8%	3.9%	.340	5.24	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.31	4.93	408	87
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	21.7%	11.1%	1.8%	.326	4.43	21.1%	10.5%	112	+0.76	3.67	213	86
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	18.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.323	3.85	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.33	2.82	175	86
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	86
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.50	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.38	4.09	738	86
Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.03	19.4%	8.5%	81	-0.13	3.97	194	85
Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	17.1%	8.3%	2.0%	.266	4.26	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.48	3.78	262	85
Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	18.5%	12.4%	1.4%	.301	5.54	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.68	3.86	260	85
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	85
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP	3.66	21.5%	12.3%	1.5%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	158	85
Dylan Burns R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.86	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.06	120	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	75	20.8%	9.9%	1.15	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82
Trevor Cahill ('21)	7	67	21.3%	10.1%	1.29	4.66