Austin Cates

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#957ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	23	110	3.12	3.13	26.3%	7.7%	—	K 19.7% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.93
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	120	4.81	4.14	22.4%	10.4%	—	K 18.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	1	1	2	5.20	5.20	17.4%	11.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	6	6	37	5.05	5.01	18.2%	11.0%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	8	8	51	4.96	4.93	18.7%	10.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 3.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 79%

CompsDylan Burns (age 25) · David Griffin (age 25) · Riley Thompson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%17.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.5%	3.12	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.5%	3.12	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	2.3%	3.12	3.13	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	120	518	116	54	15	100%	4.8	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.5%	4.81	4.98	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	120	518	116	54	15	100%	4.8	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.5%	4.81	4.98	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	120	518	116	54	15	100%	4.8	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	11.8%	5.5%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	64	39	11	100%	6.0	18.2%	11.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.05	5.01	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	320	60	34	10	100%	5.8	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	3.0%	4.96	4.93	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	303	57	32	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.1%	4.93	4.93	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	286	54	31	9	100%	6.2	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.2%	4.97	5.00	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	63	265	49	29	9	100%	6.3	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.07	5.13	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	57	241	44	27	9	100%	5.7	18.2%	11.3%	7.0%	3.5%	5.21	5.31	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	37	156	28	17	5	100%	6.2	18.2%	11.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.05	5.01	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	40	23	7	100%	6.4	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	3.0%	4.96	4.93	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	56	236	45	25	7	100%	6.2	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.1%	4.93	4.93	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	57	241	45	26	8	100%	5.7	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.2%	4.97	5.00	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	55	232	43	25	8	100%	6.1	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.07	5.13	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	39	24	8	100%	6.4	18.2%	11.3%	7.0%	3.5%	5.21	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	307	1294	241	141	42	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.2%	5.03	4.67	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	92	27	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.2%	5.03	4.67	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		50	48	229	948	178	99	29	96%	4.6	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.00	4.50	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	827	155	86	25	96%	4.6	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.00	4.50	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 96 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.61 (+0.75)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.06%	—	×0.810	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.100	11.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 24 IPFIP 5.19 → 6.54 (+1.35)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.76%	—	×0.770	18.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×1.150	12.52%
HR / BF /BF	4.95%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.19%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.19 → 6.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 82 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.41 (+0.72)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.24%	—	×0.740	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.26%	—	×1.180	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.284	×1.300	2.79%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 28 IPFIP 1.34 → 2.39 (+1.05)K% 35.9% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.92%	—	×0.770	27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.83%	—	×1.150	6.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷0.855	×1.250	1.42%

Result: FIP 1.34 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Cates (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	17.4%	11.8%	3.1%	—	4.96	18.6%	7.8%	231	-0.24	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	90
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	89
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	89
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	88
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	88
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	87
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	87
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	86
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	85
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	85
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	85
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	84
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	84
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	84
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	71	18.4%	11.0%	1.23	5.05
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Vladimir Nunez ('09)	2.2	74	17.0%	10.3%	1.12	4.83
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*