Austin Cates
P
Vancouver Canadians
+0.9
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.0 · 2029
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.3%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 25 | 23 | 110 | 430 | 113 | 33 | 10 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.12 | 3.95 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 2 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.19 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 103 | 42 | 13 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 118 | 503 | 117 | 47 | 15 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 124 | 47 | 15 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 139 | 50 | 17 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 149 | 629 | 146 | 52 | 18 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.14 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 152 | 641 | 149 | 53 | 18 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 149 | 54 | 19 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 144 | 53 | 18 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 144 | 607 | 139 | 52 | 18 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 133 | 51 | 18 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 126 | 50 | 18 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 118 | 48 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 111 | 47 | 17 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 102 | 45 | 17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 94 | 44 | 16 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 25 | 118 | 470 | 99 | 44 | 13 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 3.27 | 4.00 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 794 | 167 | 74 | 22 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 3.27 | 4.00 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Cates (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 419 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 94 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 93 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 93 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 92 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 92 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 91 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 91 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 91 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 90 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 90 |
| Riley Gowens R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 90 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 90 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 89 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 89 |
| Nolan McLean R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.1% | .292 | 3.12 | 26.2% | 15.9% | 185 | -1.28 | 2.20 | 295 | 89 |
| Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .267 | 4.04 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 200 | -0.32 | 3.21 | 670 | 89 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.7 | $17M | +$14M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.5 | $15M | +$11M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.3 | $14M | +$9M |
| Totals | $14M | $98M | +$84M | ||