Austin Cates — OGILVIE

Austin Cates P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%19.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.5%	3.12	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	2.5%	3.12	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	110	430	113	33	10	92%	4.4	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	2.3%	3.12	3.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	25	120	518	116	54	15	100%	4.8	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.5%	4.81	4.98	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	25	120	518	116	54	15	100%	4.8	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.5%	4.81	4.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	5	5	24	101	24	11	5	100%	4.8	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.38	5.19	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TOR	20	20	96	417	92	43	10	100%	4.8	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	2.4%	5.17	3.86	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	6	27	5	3	1	100%	6.5	19.5%	10.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	126	545	121	57	16	—	—	22.3%	10.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	120	507	103	49	14	100%	5.7	20.3%	9.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.59	4.55	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	122	513	107	48	15	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.47	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	122	513	108	48	15	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.44	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	120	506	107	47	15	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.46	4.47	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	116	491	103	46	15	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.56	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	111	469	97	45	15	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	104	440	90	44	15	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	411	82	43	15	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.95	5.07	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	53	224	45	22	6	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.59	4.55	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	71	32	10	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.47	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	86	38	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.44	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	102	431	91	40	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.46	4.47	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	104	439	92	42	13	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.56	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	101	426	88	41	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	96	405	83	41	14	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	91	384	77	40	14	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.95	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	122	724	3059	633	295	94	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.26	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	81	26	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		50	48	229	948	178	99	29	96%	4.6	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.00	4.50	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	827	155	86	25	96%	4.6	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.00	4.50	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Cates (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	19.5%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.49	20.8%	11.3%	363	-0.20	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	91
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	91
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	89
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	89
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	87
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	87
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	87
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	86
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	86
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	86
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	86
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.73	19.9%	8.5%	305	-0.04	3.90	538	86
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	86
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	110	20.6%	9.7%	1.17	4.61
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98