Kyle DeGroat — OGILVIE

Kyle DeGroat P ACL Royals

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%14.0%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	49	214	44	17	4	92%	3.8	13.7%	9.9%	3.9%	2.9%	3.83	4.80	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	49	214	44	17	4	92%	3.8	13.7%	9.9%	3.9%	2.9%	3.83	4.80	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	49	214	44	17	4	92%	3.8	20.6%	7.9%	12.6%	1.9%	3.83	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	18	0	29	144	34	28	8	0%	1.6	18.1%	19.9%	-1.9%	8.7%	7.76	8.86	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	18	0	29	144	34	28	8	0%	1.6	18.1%	19.9%	-1.9%	8.7%	7.76	8.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	KC	15	0	23	113	30	18	7	0%	1.6	26.5%	15.9%	10.6%	6.2%	7.33	6.28	—
2026	20	A RAW	KC	3	0	6	31	4	10	1	0%	1.9	12.9%	32.3%	-19.4%	3.2%	9.53	7.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	47	197	31	21	6	0%	1.1	15.9%	10.9%	5.0%	2.9%	5.19	5.13	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	KC	47	0	49	206	36	21	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.4%	7.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.89	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	KC	22	0	23	97	15	11	3	0%	1.0	15.9%	10.9%	5.0%	2.9%	5.19	5.13	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	KC	34	0	36	152	27	16	4	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.4%	7.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	247	42	26	7	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.6%	6.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	89	24	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.6%	6.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		31	12	78	358	55	50	19	39%	2.5	15.5%	13.9%	1.6%	5.2%	5.29	6.43	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	31	200	914	141	127	48	39%	2.5	15.5%	13.9%	1.6%	5.2%	5.29	6.43	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle DeGroat (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	14.0%	11.4%	3.0%	—	5.01	16.8%	6.1%	96	-0.38	—	—	—
Nolan Kingham R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SW	4.70	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	.338	4.22	13.1%	7.0%	260	-0.48	3.93	533	86
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	282	86
Sasagi Sanchez R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	21	SW	4.48	11.4%	9.4%	2.1%	.289	4.45	12.7%	4.0%	108	-0.03	3.48	180	85
Tyler Driver R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	20	SW	5.26	15.0%	13.8%	3.1%	.312	5.68	14.5%	1.4%	88	+0.42	5.17	180	85
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	85
Jose Miguel Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	19	SW	4.84	10.3%	11.1%	2.2%	.315	5.19	13.7%	0.7%	36	+0.35	4.84	223	85
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	84
Nate Griep R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	21	SW	5.44	11.5%	10.9%	3.5%	.383	3.94	17.2%	4.5%	163	-1.50	2.73	275	84
Jack Sinclair R 2021 · 4.96 FIP	22	SW	4.96	10.9%	10.0%	2.8%	.324	3.70	21.6%	11.4%	171	-1.26	2.88	305	83
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	83
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	83
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Brayan Palencia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	20	SW	5.04	12.8%	8.9%	3.4%	.326	4.92	14.1%	5.1%	155	-0.12	2.12	261	82
Eury Ramos R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	19	SW	5.40	13.0%	14.8%	2.8%	.343	7.19	14.1%	0.6%	29	+1.79	3.33	176	82
Tanner Dodson R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SW	5.04	13.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.433	4.48	17.7%	2.8%	91	-0.56	3.87	277	82
Edgar Manzo R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	16.7%	12.3%	2.4%	.303	5.03	13.1%	3.3%	125	+0.44	4.46	249	81
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	81
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	81
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	16.2%	10.8%	1.13	5.15
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77