Nolan Kingham
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.7
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.2%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Danville Braves | 11 | 3 | 24 | 101 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 12.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 27 | 27 | 165 | 688 | 116 | 36 | 11 | 13.1% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.95 | +2.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 19 | 16 | 94 | 399 | 63 | 24 | 12 | 13.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 32 | 19 | 97 | 407 | 73 | 17 | 14 | 15.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.62 | 4.55 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 27 | 13 | 86 | 373 | 63 | 37 | 7 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 357 | 78 | 34 | 11 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 75 | 33 | 10 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 78 | 29 | 10 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 74 | 28 | 10 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 70 | 28 | 10 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 65 | 27 | 10 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 26 | 9 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 55 | 25 | 9 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 78 | 467 | 1968 | 272 | 133 | 57 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 33 | 200 | 843 | 116 | 57 | 24 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan Kingham (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 237 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 88 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 86 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 86 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 83 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 80 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 79 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 79 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.77 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 4.21 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.44 | 3.77 | 725 | 78 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .276 | 4.35 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 104 | +0.42 | 3.93 | 368 | 77 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 76 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 76 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 76 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 76 |
| Ervin Santana R 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 76 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 76 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .316 | 3.75 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.25 | 3.14 | 593 | 76 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2029 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 75 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 75 |
| Barry Enright R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.41 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | .306 | 3.90 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.49 | 3.20 | 315 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.