Brayan Palencia — OGILVIE

Brayan Palencia P Eugene Emeralds

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 204 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%12.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	15	0	18	70	23	4	0	0%	1.2	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	0.0%	1.47	2.12	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	15	0	18	70	23	4	0	0%	1.2	32.9%	5.7%	27.1%	0.0%	1.47	1.25	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	6	44	192	42	10	6	43%	3.1	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	4.3%	4.33	5.03	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	14	6	44	192	42	10	6	43%	3.1	21.9%	5.2%	16.7%	3.1%	4.33	3.65	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	15	3	44	197	37	14	5	20%	2.9	12.8%	8.9%	3.9%	3.4%	6.18	5.04	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	15	3	44	197	37	14	5	20%	2.9	12.8%	8.9%	3.9%	3.4%	6.18	5.04	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	15	3	44	197	37	14	5	20%	2.9	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	2.5%	6.18	3.86	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	67	283	62	20	4	13%	2.9	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	1.7%	3.11	3.78	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	67	283	62	20	4	13%	2.9	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	1.7%	3.11	3.78	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	67	283	62	20	4	13%	2.9	21.9%	7.1%	14.8%	1.4%	3.11	2.92	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	30	5	58	237	41	14	8	17%	1.9	13.3%	6.8%	6.5%	4.3%	4.34	5.20	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	30	5	58	237	41	14	8	17%	1.9	13.3%	6.8%	6.5%	4.3%	4.34	5.20	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	30	5	58	237	41	14	8	17%	1.9	17.3%	5.9%	11.4%	3.4%	4.34	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	18	0	30	140	22	18	6	0%	1.7	12.1%	14.8%	-2.7%	5.4%	5.93	6.89	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	18	0	30	140	22	18	6	0%	1.7	12.1%	14.8%	-2.7%	5.4%	5.93	6.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	SF	18	0	30	140	22	18	6	0%	1.7	15.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.3%	5.93	5.75	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	5	22	3	2	1	0%	1.0	12.1%	8.3%	3.9%	3.1%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	36	162	25	20	7	—	—	15.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.1%	5.83	6.65	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	60	0	63	266	39	22	8	0%	1.1	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	3.1%	5.02	4.96	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	44	22	8	0%	1.0	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.88	4.81	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	26	0	27	114	17	9	3	0%	1.0	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	3.1%	5.02	4.96	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	40	0	42	177	29	14	5	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.88	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	70	294	46	24	9	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.1%	7.5%	3.1%	4.93	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	69	26	0%	1.0	15.6%	8.1%	7.5%	3.1%	4.93	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		115	17	261	1119	163	96	38	15%	2.3	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	3.4%	4.32	4.80	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	13	200	859	125	73	29	15%	2.3	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	3.4%	4.32	4.80	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Palencia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	12.1%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.88	15.4%	7.3%	127	-0.33	—	—	—
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	90
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	90
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	89
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	89
Reece Karalus R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	14.0%	9.1%	3.4%	.303	4.73	15.4%	3.5%	55	-0.18	4.73	149	88
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	88
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	88
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	88
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	87
Blake Bass R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	11.4%	6.4%	2.2%	.321	3.47	16.8%	6.6%	108	-0.70	3.18	223	87
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	87
Matt Eckelman R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	23	SU	4.73	15.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	4.23	17.4%	5.7%	97	-0.50	4.07	386	87
Peter Lannoo R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	23	SU	5.37	12.8%	8.1%	4.2%	.315	4.96	18.4%	7.8%	47	-0.41	4.96	124	87
Gabe Friese R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SU	4.71	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	115	86
Colin Welmon R 2016 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	13.8%	9.6%	4.6%	.339	5.33	12.0%	5.0%	73	-0.32	5.33	142	86
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	86
Spencer Jones R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	23	SU	4.02	12.3%	6.3%	2.1%	.299	5.49	14.9%	6.0%	41	+1.47	2.48	171	86
Jaime Lugo R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	23	SU	4.24	13.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.305	3.89	12.4%	3.6%	162	-0.35	3.69	287	85
Ryan Miller R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	23	SU	5.62	11.2%	8.4%	4.4%	.298	5.82	25.5%	11.8%	36	+0.20	4.08	338	85
Carlos Felix R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SW	4.92	8.7%	6.3%	3.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.92	121	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	14.4%	8.2%	1.19	5.03
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43