Brayan Palencia
P
Eugene Emeralds
Age 23
RHP
6'6" / 204 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.25
FIP5.25
K%12.1%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%3.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 15 | 0 | 18 | 70 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 0.0% | 1.47 | 2.12 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 15 | 0 | 18 | 70 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.9% | 5.7% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 1.47 | 1.25 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 14 | 6 | 44 | 192 | 42 | 10 | 6 | 43% | 3.1 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.33 | 4.99 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 14 | 6 | 44 | 192 | 42 | 10 | 6 | 43% | 3.1 | 21.9% | 5.2% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 15 | 3 | 44 | 197 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 20% | 2.9 | 12.8% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.18 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 15 | 3 | 44 | 197 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 20% | 2.9 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 6.18 | 3.86 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 3 | 67 | 283 | 62 | 20 | 4 | 13% | 2.9 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 3.11 | 3.70 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 3 | 67 | 283 | 62 | 20 | 4 | 13% | 2.9 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 1.4% | 3.11 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 30 | 5 | 58 | 237 | 41 | 14 | 8 | 17% | 1.9 | 13.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.34 | 5.25 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 30 | 5 | 58 | 237 | 41 | 14 | 8 | 17% | 1.9 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.34 | 4.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 16 | 0 | 26 | 124 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 11.8% | 15.8% | -4.0% | 6.0% | 7.01 | 7.42 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SF | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 32 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.25 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 87 | 384 | 51 | 39 | 14 | — | — | 13.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.77 | 5.89 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 39 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 37 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 0 | 121 | 509 | 82 | 42 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.47 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 70 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 17 | 256 | 1103 | 160 | 94 | 37 | 15% | 2.3 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.80 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 13 | 200 | 862 | 125 | 74 | 29 | 15% | 2.3 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Palencia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.25 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.87 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 191 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Devin Burke R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 92 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 91 |
| Mark Peterson R 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.72 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 112 | -0.43 | 4.62 | 185 | 90 |
| Scott Burke R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 88 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 88 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.86 | 14.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.94 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 317 | -0.92 | 3.27 | 367 | 88 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 88 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.7% | .303 | 4.81 | 15.4% | 3.5% | 55 | -0.28 | 4.74 | 149 | 88 |
| Troy Neiman R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.93 | 13.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.60 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 135 | -0.33 | 3.84 | 199 | 87 |
| Rogelio Martinez R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .304 | 5.56 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 73 | +0.41 | 5.15 | 152 | 87 |
| Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.77 | 15.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.48 | 17.4% | 5.7% | 97 | -0.29 | 4.10 | 386 | 87 |
| Jack Jasiak R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .332 | 3.51 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 112 | -1.46 | 3.25 | 248 | 87 |
| Gabe Friese R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 10.3% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 115 | 86 |
| Spencer Jones R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 12.3% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .299 | 5.45 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 41 | +1.29 | 2.48 | 171 | 86 |
| Blake Bass R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 6.6% | 108 | -0.66 | 3.18 | 223 | 86 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 86 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .277 | 4.38 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 164 | +0.10 | 4.01 | 254 | 85 |
| Robbie Welhaf R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 14.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .309 | 3.26 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 90 | -0.80 | 3.26 | 121 | 85 |
| Jose Morel R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 161 | 85 |
| Peter Lannoo R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.53 | 12.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% | .315 | 5.04 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 47 | -0.49 | 5.04 | 124 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 15.0% | 8.4% | 1.19 | 5.01 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |