Jack Sinclair
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 170 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%8.9%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 6 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 10.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 5.06 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 38 | 0 | 53 | 205 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 1.70 | 2.86 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 48 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 65 | 30 | 8 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 43 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 65 | 19 | 3 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 2.20 | 3.18 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 53 | 2 | 63 | 299 | 61 | 41 | 6 | 17.5% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 5.68 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 7 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 11 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.48 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 52 | 34 | 7 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 70 | 298 | 63 | 40 | 7 | 21.2% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 5.12 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 52 | 33 | 7 | 20.4% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 51 | 31 | 7 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 39 | 27 | 7 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 36 | 25 | 6 | 19.0% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 4 | 254 | 1082 | 218 | 126 | 23 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 3.61 | 4.04 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 3 | 200 | 851 | 171 | 99 | 18 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 3.61 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Sinclair (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.90 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 177 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 92 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 91 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 91 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 88 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 87 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 86 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .302 | 5.19 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +1.06 | 4.13 | 265 | 86 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 86 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.91 | 3.16 | 155 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 84 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.87 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.27 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.27 | 313 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 84 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 84 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 84 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.