Jack Sinclair

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAWSH	43	0	57	2.20	2.51	28.6%	8.4%	—	K 23.2% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.19
2025	26	MIX2 levels	53	2	63	5.68	4.35	20.4%	13.7%	—	K 17.2% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.63
2026	27	MIX2 levels	63	1	71	3.79	3.00	26.5%	11.3%	1.3	K 24.1% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.32
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	45	0	47	4.62	4.62	21.5%	12.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ77% MLB	29	MLBWSH	38	0	40	4.67	4.72	21.4%	12.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ83% MLB	30	MLBWSH	34	0	36	4.77	4.87	21.2%	12.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJoe Colón J (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Austin Adams (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.5%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	6	2	11	50	8	4	1	33%	1.8	10.9%	10.0%	0.9%	2.8%	5.06	4.96	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	6	2	11	50	8	4	1	33%	1.8	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	2.0%	5.06	3.94	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	205	61	15	2	0%	1.4	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	1.1%	1.70	2.88	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	205	61	15	2	0%	1.4	29.8%	7.3%	22.4%	1.0%	1.70	2.14	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	62	262	65	30	8	0%	1.3	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	3.3%	3.79	4.89	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	62	262	65	30	8	0%	1.3	24.8%	11.5%	13.4%	3.1%	3.79	4.14	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	0	57	227	65	19	3	0%	1.3	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	1.6%	2.20	3.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	0	57	227	65	19	3	0%	1.3	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	1.6%	2.20	3.19	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	43	0	57	227	65	19	3	0%	1.3	28.6%	8.4%	20.3%	1.3%	2.20	2.51	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	63	299	61	41	6	4%	1.2	17.2%	13.3%	3.9%	2.4%	5.68	4.63	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	63	299	61	41	6	4%	1.2	17.2%	13.3%	3.9%	2.4%	5.68	4.63	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	2	63	299	61	41	6	4%	1.2	20.4%	13.7%	6.7%	2.0%	5.68	4.35	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	71	310	82	35	4	2%	1.1	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	1.7%	3.79	3.32	+1.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	71	310	82	35	4	2%	1.1	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	1.7%	3.79	3.32	+1.0
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	1	71	310	82	35	4	2%	1.1	26.5%	11.3%	15.2%	1.3%	3.79	3.00	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	0	11	46	8	4	0	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	0.0%	2.45	2.74	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	45	0	47	198	43	25	5	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.5%	9.0%	2.5%	4.62	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	50	0	52	222	48	28	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.7%	4.67	4.72	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	42	0	44	184	39	23	5	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.5%	8.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.87	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	38	0	40	169	36	21	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	2.7%	4.67	4.72	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	32	19	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.5%	8.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	0	87	368	77	44	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	2.4%	4.43	4.20	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	843	176	101	21	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	2.4%	4.43	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		251	5	317	1353	281	149	28	2%	1.3	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	2.1%	3.57	3.88	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	3	200	853	177	94	18	2%	1.3	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	2.1%	3.57	3.88	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 60 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.32 (+0.27)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.03%	—	×0.860	24.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.74%	—	×0.900	10.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 42 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.30 (+0.26)K% 21.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.94%	—	×0.860	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.27%	—	×0.900	11.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.960	×1.100	2.34%

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 21 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.26 (+0.73)K% 17.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.48%	—	×0.810	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.56%	—	×1.100	16.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.963	×1.200	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 57 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.19 (+0.72)K% 28.6% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.63%	—	×0.810	23.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×1.100	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.990	×1.200	1.60%

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 44 IPFIP 5.02 → 5.74 (+0.72)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.810	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×1.100	13.97%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.115	×1.200	4.56%

Result: FIP 5.02 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 17 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.55 (+0.62)K% 24.6% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.770	18.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.150	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 31 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.44 (+0.82)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.70%	—	×0.770	22.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.83%	—	×1.150	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.114	×1.250	1.95%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 22 IPFIP 1.32 → 2.15 (+0.84)K% 31.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.11%	—	×0.740	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.180	7.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.074	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 1.32 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Sinclair (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.5%	12.5%	2.5%	—	4.79	21.3%	8.9%	96	+0.17	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	78
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	78
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	77
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	77
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	77
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Ty Adcock R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SU	3.76	20.8%	8.9%	2.4%	.405	4.85	20.4%	11.6%	66	+1.09	3.76	122	76
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	21.2%	12.2%	0.97	4.54
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*