Jack Sinclair — OGILVIE

Jack Sinclair P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%18.1%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	6	2	11	50	8	4	1	33%	1.8	10.9%	10.0%	0.9%	2.8%	5.06	4.96	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	6	2	11	50	8	4	1	33%	1.8	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	2.0%	5.06	3.94	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	205	61	15	2	0%	1.4	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	1.1%	1.70	2.88	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	205	61	15	2	0%	1.4	29.8%	7.3%	22.4%	1.0%	1.70	2.14	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	62	262	65	30	8	0%	1.3	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	3.3%	3.79	4.89	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	62	262	65	30	8	0%	1.3	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	3.3%	3.79	4.89	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	62	262	65	30	8	0%	1.3	24.8%	11.5%	13.4%	3.1%	3.79	4.14	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	0	57	227	65	19	3	0%	1.3	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	1.6%	2.20	3.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	0	57	227	65	19	3	0%	1.3	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	1.6%	2.20	3.19	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	43	0	57	227	65	19	3	0%	1.3	28.6%	8.4%	20.3%	1.3%	2.20	2.51	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	63	299	61	41	6	4%	1.2	16.8%	13.3%	3.5%	2.4%	5.68	4.67	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	63	299	61	41	6	4%	1.2	16.8%	13.3%	3.5%	2.4%	5.68	4.67	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	2	63	299	61	41	6	4%	1.2	20.4%	13.7%	6.7%	2.0%	5.68	4.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	4	18	4	3	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.33	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	56	1	65	282	78	34	4	2%	1.2	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	1.7%	3.76	3.39	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	56	1	65	282	78	34	4	2%	1.2	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	1.7%	3.76	3.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	WSH	52	1	60	264	74	31	4	2%	1.2	28.0%	11.7%	16.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.05	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	WSH	4	0	4	18	4	3	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.33	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	WSH	4	0	4	18	4	3	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.33	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	4	3	1	0%	1.1	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	70	305	82	37	5	—	—	26.9%	12.2%	14.8%	1.5%	3.86	3.52	+1.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	10	41	82	37	5	—	—	199.9%	90.1%	109.7%	11.2%	27.81	3.81	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	53	37	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.1%	5.5%	2.8%	5.09	5.13	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	51	36	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.13	5.20	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	62	0	65	274	51	36	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.1%	5.5%	2.8%	5.09	5.13	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	59	0	62	262	49	34	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.13	5.20	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	0	136	573	107	75	16	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.2%	5.5%	2.8%	4.95	4.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	110	24	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.2%	5.5%	2.8%	4.95	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		244	5	311	1325	270	146	28	2%	1.3	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	2.1%	3.56	3.92	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	3	200	853	174	94	18	2%	1.3	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	2.1%	3.56	3.92	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Sinclair (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	18.1%	13.3%	2.7%	—	5.16	18.6%	5.6%	133	+0.04	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	93
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	91
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	88
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	85
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
J.J. Hoover R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SU	4.22	19.7%	11.4%	2.5%	.211	4.46	24.6%	14.3%	98	+0.24	4.22	258	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.4%	13.1%	1.10	5.11
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10