Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 25% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 7.88 | 1.93 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 25% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 7.88 | 1.85 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 133 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 3.0% | 16.7% | 5.4% | 2.48 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 133 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 3.8% | 21.1% | 3.8% | 2.48 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 160 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 6.27 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 160 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 6.27 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 40 | 161 | 40 | 14 | 8 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.54 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 40 | 161 | 40 | 14 | 8 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 5.0% | 4.54 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 19 | 1 | 19 | 93 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 5% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 16.5% | -0.9% | 6.5% | 8.68 | 7.43 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 81 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 38 | 174 | 37 | 18 | 9 | — | — | 21.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 6.58 | 6.04 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 0 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 8 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 14.4% | 7.8% | 5.25 | 6.41 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 0 | 200 | 819 | 167 | 50 | 62 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 14.4% | 7.8% | 5.25 | 6.41 | -2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 123 | 4 | 136 | 583 | 120 | 54 | 23 | 3% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 4.71 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 6 | 200 | 859 | 176 | 79 | 34 | 3% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Adcock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.86 | 19.4% | 10.2% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 75 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 75 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.70 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .351 | 5.58 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.88 | 4.03 | 229 | 74 |
| Nick Merkel R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 74 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.98 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .315 | 4.61 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 100 | +0.63 | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 73 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 73 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 73 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 73 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 72 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 72 |