Brian Curley

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 212 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #609MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP43ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	116	5.28	4.20	25.3%	6.6%	—	K 19.8% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	24	24	136	4.93	4.93	20.2%	8.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	10	10	59	4.69	4.66	21.2%	7.8%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	15	15	91	4.61	4.58	21.7%	7.8%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control50Command45FB velo57

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Will Warren (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%20.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—50

CMD3045

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	514	130	34	22	92%	4.6	25.3%	6.6%	18.7%	4.3%	5.28	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	24	24	136	574	116	46	22	100%	5.7	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.9%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	138	581	123	46	22	100%	5.7	21.2%	7.8%	13.3%	3.8%	4.80	4.77	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	138	581	126	45	22	100%	6.0	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	3.7%	4.72	4.69	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	136	573	124	45	21	100%	5.9	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	3.7%	4.70	4.70	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	132	555	120	44	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.8%	4.74	4.78	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	126	530	113	44	21	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	118	499	105	43	21	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.5%	12.4%	4.2%	4.99	5.09	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	59	249	53	20	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.8%	13.3%	3.6%	4.69	4.66	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	91	384	83	30	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	3.5%	4.61	4.58	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	96	35	16	100%	5.8	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.59	4.59	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	111	469	101	38	17	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.6%	4.62	4.66	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	110	464	99	38	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.8%	4.72	4.79	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	106	448	94	38	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.5%	12.4%	4.0%	4.86	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	97	582	2458	526	198	90	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	3.7%	4.68	4.33	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	68	31	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	3.7%	4.68	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		25	23	116	514	102	38	27	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	886	175	66	46	92%	4.6	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	5.2%	5.28	5.24	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Curley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	20.2%	8.0%	3.9%	—	4.72	21.5%	13.7%	411	-0.21	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	88
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	87
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	86
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	85
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	85
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	84
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	84
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	84
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	84
Tanner Gordon R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	20.8%	8.0%	4.3%	.330	4.56	17.3%	12.0%	363	-0.16	4.10	715	84
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	84
Justin Vernia R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	17.0%	8.4%	4.6%	.296	4.46	14.7%	10.2%	79	-0.81	4.37	193	83
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	83
Jeff Bain R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	21.7%	8.7%	5.0%	.303	4.63	19.9%	11.9%	124	-0.48	3.35	475	83
Osmer Morales R 2017 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP	5.22	18.9%	10.1%	4.4%	.294	5.33	16.9%	4.5%	102	+0.11	3.14	429	83
Taylor Buchholz R 2006 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.245	3.30	17.8%	13.0%	160	-1.64	3.12	299	83
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	82
Ian Bedell R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	24	SP	5.08	19.8%	8.8%	4.6%	.232	6.29	17.3%	6.0%	70	+1.21	3.73	274	82
Jonathan Heasley R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	21.0%	8.2%	5.2%	.289	5.37	17.5%	8.9%	284	+0.12	3.72	607	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	132	21.2%	8.0%	1.50	4.81
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*