Winyer Chourio
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 103
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%21.3%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 12 | 7 | 39 | 167 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 58% | 3.2 | 13.8% | 14.2% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 2.09 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 12 | 7 | 39 | 167 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 58% | 3.2 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 0.6% | 2.09 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 5 | 55 | 265 | 55 | 27 | 5 | 24% | 2.6 | 14.5% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 6.34 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 5 | 55 | 265 | 55 | 27 | 5 | 24% | 2.6 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 6.34 | 3.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 15 | 14 | 62 | 266 | 84 | 37 | 5 | 93% | 4.1 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 35 | 147 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 97 | 413 | 115 | 52 | 9 | — | — | 27.9% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 4.32 | 4.51 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 29 | 173 | 731 | 169 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.79 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 75 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 26 | 156 | 698 | 124 | 100 | 15 | 54% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 4.44 | 4.58 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 33 | 200 | 895 | 159 | 128 | 19 | 54% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 4.44 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Winyer Chourio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.25 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 111 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 87 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 86 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 86 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 86 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 86 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 84 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 84 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 83 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 82 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 82 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 82 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 81 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 81 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 81 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 80 |
| Brett Gillis R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 80 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 37 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.10 | 4.29 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |