Winyer Chourio — OGILVIE

Winyer Chourio P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%17.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	12	7	39	167	34	19	1	58%	3.2	13.8%	14.2%	-0.4%	0.9%	2.09	4.24	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	12	7	39	167	34	19	1	58%	3.2	13.8%	14.2%	-0.4%	0.9%	2.09	4.24	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	12	7	39	167	34	19	1	58%	3.2	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	0.6%	2.09	3.15	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	55	265	55	27	5	24%	2.6	14.5%	12.4%	2.1%	2.6%	6.34	4.88	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	55	265	55	27	5	24%	2.6	14.5%	12.4%	2.1%	2.6%	6.34	4.88	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	5	55	265	55	27	5	24%	2.6	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	1.9%	6.34	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	20	93	408	122	57	10	87%	4.0	22.5%	16.2%	6.2%	3.1%	4.56	4.96	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	20	93	408	122	57	10	87%	4.0	22.5%	16.2%	6.2%	3.1%	4.56	4.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SD	12	11	52	214	74	25	3	92%	4.3	34.6%	11.7%	22.9%	1.4%	3.31	2.43	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	SD	11	9	41	194	48	32	7	82%	3.7	24.7%	16.5%	8.2%	3.6%	6.15	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	94	398	76	44	11	100%	5.5	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.91	4.81	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	97	408	83	41	11	100%	5.7	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.60	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	98	413	86	40	12	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	98	413	87	39	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	96	407	86	39	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	93	394	83	38	12	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	89	377	78	38	12	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	3.1%	4.64	4.70	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	84	354	72	36	12	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.78	4.88	+0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	78	330	72	32	12	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	3.5%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	72	305	66	31	12	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.8%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	46	194	37	21	6	100%	5.8	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	2.9%	4.95	4.85	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	67	283	57	29	8	100%	5.6	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	79	334	69	32	10	100%	5.6	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.52	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	85	359	76	34	10	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.49	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	87	367	77	35	11	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	86	363	76	35	11	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.58	4.61	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	83	350	73	35	11	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.68	4.74	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	78	329	67	34	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	74	312	69	31	11	100%	6.2	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	3.6%	4.85	4.86	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	69	291	63	30	11	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.9%	4.99	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	128	756	3191	665	317	101	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.9%	10.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.33	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	84	27	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.9%	10.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		56	32	187	840	153	123	21	57%	3.3	18.2%	14.6%	3.6%	2.5%	4.58	4.79	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	900	164	132	23	57%	3.3	18.2%	14.6%	3.6%	2.5%	4.58	4.79	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Winyer Chourio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	17.5%	12.4%	2.9%	—	4.63	20.1%	9.8%	289	-0.52	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	90
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	88
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	84
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	82
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	82
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	82
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	82
Dedniel Núñez R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	14.2%	11.6%	1.6%	.303	3.30	21.1%	13.2%	80	-0.96	1.83	332	81
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	80
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	85	20.6%	10.1%	1.18	4.69
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32