Winyer Chourio

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#933ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Padres Go…	12	7	39	2.09	3.15	20.4%	11.4%	—	K 13.8% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.24
2025	21	MIX2 levels	21	5	55	6.34	3.75	20.8%	10.2%	—	K 14.5% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.88
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	20	93	4.56	3.72	29.9%	14.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.96
2027PROJ	23	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.32	5.32	20.8%	15.3%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBSD	4	4	21	5.12	5.03	21.4%	13.2%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBSD	5	5	32	4.91	4.82	21.9%	11.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22) · Ray Gaither (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%20.8%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	12	7	39	167	34	19	1	58%	3.2	13.8%	14.2%	-0.4%	0.9%	2.09	4.24	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	12	7	39	167	34	19	1	58%	3.2	13.8%	14.2%	-0.4%	0.9%	2.09	4.24	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	12	7	39	167	34	19	1	58%	3.2	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	0.6%	2.09	3.15	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	55	265	55	27	5	24%	2.6	14.5%	12.4%	2.1%	2.6%	6.34	4.88	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	55	265	55	27	5	24%	2.6	14.5%	12.4%	2.1%	2.6%	6.34	4.88	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	5	55	265	55	27	5	24%	2.6	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	1.9%	6.34	3.75	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	93	408	122	57	10	87%	4.0	22.5%	16.2%	6.2%	3.1%	4.56	4.96	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	93	408	122	57	10	87%	4.0	22.5%	16.2%	6.2%	3.1%	4.56	4.96	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	93	408	122	57	10	87%	4.0	29.9%	14.0%	15.9%	2.5%	4.56	3.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	15.3%	5.5%	3.0%	5.32	5.32	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	68	286	61	38	9	100%	5.6	21.4%	13.2%	8.2%	3.0%	5.08	4.99	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	62	264	58	31	8	100%	5.7	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.87	4.78	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	61	258	57	30	8	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.73	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	59	250	55	29	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.6%	10.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	56	237	52	28	7	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.8%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	57	240	57	27	8	100%	6.3	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.70	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	51	217	51	25	8	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.82	4.88	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	21	89	19	12	3	100%	5.2	21.4%	13.2%	8.2%	3.1%	5.12	5.03	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	32	135	30	16	4	100%	6.4	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.1%	4.91	4.82	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	40	169	37	20	5	100%	5.7	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.81	4.77	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	43	182	40	21	6	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	44	186	41	22	6	100%	6.3	21.9%	11.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.84	4.88	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	47	198	47	22	7	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	3.4%	4.79	4.75	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	44	186	43	21	7	100%	6.3	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.6%	4.87	4.93	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	271	1144	257	134	37	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.2%	4.85	4.46	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	99	27	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.2%	4.85	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		56	32	187	840	153	123	21	57%	3.3	18.2%	14.6%	3.6%	2.5%	4.58	4.79	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	900	164	132	23	57%	3.3	18.2%	14.6%	3.6%	2.5%	4.58	4.79	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 52 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.69 (+1.26)K% 34.6% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.58%	—	×0.740	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.68%	—	×1.180	13.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 41 IPFIP 5.08 → 6.37 (+1.29)K% 24.7% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.74%	—	×0.770	19.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.49%	—	×1.150	18.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.61%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.08 → 6.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 35 IPFIP 4.02 → 5.53 (+1.51)K% 22.4% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.680	15.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.250	11.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.018	×1.400	4.05%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 20 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.71 (+0.66)K% 17.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.89%	—	×0.740	13.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.58%	—	×1.180	13.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.936	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Padres Gold · 39 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.24 (+1.09)K% 20.4% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.36%	—	×0.680	13.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.38%	—	×1.250	14.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷0.909	×1.400	0.92%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Winyer Chourio (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.84	21.8%	9.5%	191	-0.48	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	85
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	83
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	82
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	82
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	82
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	22.1%	12.3%	1.20	4.90
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71