Juan Sanchez

SS Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1223ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	253	.341/.440/.565	8	4	70	—	.207/.302/.324
2026	18	ATOR	402	.213/.298/.342	7	12	42	—	.175/.245/.270
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBTOR	512	.185/.248/.297	10	9	53	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBTOR	125	.193/.258/.319	3	3	62	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBTOR	198	.201/.267/.341	5	4	70	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Max EV82

Speed81

K%47

Z-Con%33

Whiff%29

BB%23

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsJesús Báez (age 19) · Jhonkensy Noel (age 18) · Esmerlyn Valdez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .246 / .294

PA210

HR4

K%29

BB%6

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	253	214	73	16	4	8	26	44	12	4	3	341	440	565	1.006	224	399	17	10	440	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	402	357	76	23	1	7	33	102	10	12	1	213	297	342	639	129	276	25	8	291	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	253	222	46	10	2	4	18	55	12	4	3	207	302	324	626	117	246	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	402	366	64	18	1	5	24	139	10	12	1	175	245	270	515	96	260	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	253	222	46	10	2	4	18	55	12	4	3	207	302	324	626	117	256	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	253	214	73	16	4	8	26	44	12	4	3	341	440	565	1.006	224	399	17	10	440	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	402	366	64	18	1	5	24	139	10	12	1	175	245	270	515	96	263	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	402	357	76	23	1	7	33	102	10	12	1	213	297	342	639	129	276	25	8	291	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	253	221	46	10	2	4	18	55	12	4	3	208	302	326	627	118	246	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	402	365	64	18	1	5	24	139	10	12	1	175	245	271	516	96	260	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	253	221	46	10	2	4	18	55	12	4	3	208	302	326	627	118	246	22	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	402	365	64	18	1	5	24	139	10	12	1	175	245	271	516	96	260	35	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	512	468	87	19	2	10	31	148	8	9	2	185	248	297	545	112	243	29	6	247	53	-29	+1	-2	+5	+11	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	364	332	64	13	1	9	23	103	6	7	2	193	257	319	576	126	248	28	6	260	62	-17	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.6
2029	21	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	408	371	74	15	2	11	27	113	7	9	2	200	266	340	606	140	251	28	7	272	70	-15	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	455	413	85	17	2	14	31	123	8	10	2	206	273	358	631	151	255	27	7	282	77	-13	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	505	457	97	19	2	17	35	134	8	12	3	211	279	370	649	159	257	27	7	289	82	-11	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	562	509	109	21	2	19	39	148	9	13	3	215	283	379	662	164	260	26	7	294	85	-10	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	592	536	116	23	2	21	42	155	9	13	3	216	284	382	667	167	260	26	7	296	87	-9	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	601	544	117	23	2	21	42	158	10	13	3	216	284	384	669	168	260	26	7	297	87	-9	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	597	541	116	23	2	21	42	158	9	13	3	215	283	382	665	167	260	26	7	296	86	-10	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	585	530	113	22	2	20	41	156	9	10	3	213	282	377	659	164	259	27	7	293	84	-11	+1	-1	+6	+13	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	568	514	108	21	2	19	40	153	9	8	2	211	279	371	650	160	258	27	7	290	82	-12	+1	-2	+6	+12	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	553	502	104	20	2	18	38	151	8	5	2	208	276	364	640	156	256	27	7	285	79	-14	+0	-3	+6	+12	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	TOR	60%	534	484	100	19	2	17	37	147	8	2	1	205	271	355	626	150	253	28	7	279	75	-16	+0	-3	+6	+12	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	125	114	22	5	0	3	8	35	2	3	1	193	258	319	577	126	249	28	6	260	62	-6	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	198	180	36	7	1	5	13	55	3	4	1	201	267	341	608	140	252	28	7	272	70	-7	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	247	224	47	9	1	8	17	67	4	6	1	207	274	358	632	152	256	27	7	282	77	-7	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	286	259	55	11	1	9	20	76	5	7	2	212	279	371	650	159	258	27	7	289	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	318	288	62	12	1	11	22	84	5	7	2	216	284	379	663	164	261	26	7	295	85	-6	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	335	303	66	13	1	12	24	88	5	8	2	216	285	383	668	167	261	26	7	297	87	-5	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	340	308	66	13	1	12	24	89	5	8	2	217	285	385	670	168	261	26	7	297	87	-5	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	331	300	64	12	1	12	23	87	5	7	2	216	284	383	667	167	261	26	7	296	86	-5	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	321	290	62	12	1	11	23	85	5	6	1	214	282	378	660	164	260	26	7	294	84	-6	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	304	275	58	11	1	10	21	82	5	4	1	212	280	372	652	160	259	27	7	290	82	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	316	286	60	12	1	10	22	86	5	3	1	209	276	365	641	156	257	27	7	286	79	-8	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	TOR	60%	318	288	59	11	1	10	22	88	5	1	1	205	272	356	627	151	254	28	7	280	75	-9	-0	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3439	3115	657	128	11	113	239	922	54	64	17	211	279	368	647	157	259	27	7	289	77	-77	+6	-9	+37	+75	3.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	124	24	2	21	45	174	10	12	3	211	278	365	643	154	259	27	7	289	77	-15	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7189	6513	1349	272	27	220	492	1954	125	135	34	207	276	359	634	151	258	27	7	283	77	-157	+12	-18	+70	+142	4.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	122	25	2	20	44	177	11	12	3	207	274	358	633	151	258	27	7	283	77	-16	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 402 PAwOBA .285 → .231 (−54)K% 25.4% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.37%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	34.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.21%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.92%
HBP% /PA	2.49%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.03%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.018	×1.045	17.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.02%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.018	×1.045	7.96%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.018	×1.045	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	2.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .285 → .231; ISO .129 → .101; BABIP .276 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Blue Jays Red · 253 PAwOBA .430 → .271 (−159)K% 17.4% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.28%	÷0.994	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.29%
HBP% /PA	4.74%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.35%
Singles /BIP	26.47%	÷1.002	×0.680	×0.954	×1.008	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	9.41%	÷0.970	×0.600	×0.954	×1.008	5.60%
Triples /BIP	2.35%	÷1.017	×0.600	×0.954	×1.008	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	4.71%	÷0.957	×0.470	—	×1.008	2.33%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 103, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .430 → .271; ISO .224 → .122; BABIP .399 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#5Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.5	3,647	117	66	210	274	366	+39	-8	5.8	5.5
/162	664	21	12	+7.1	-1.4	1.1	pk7: 5
#6Andujar Cedeno'90-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,233 PA	3.4	2,233	47	26	228*	284*	371*	+24	-20	1.3	1.3
/162	664	14	8	+7.1	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Sanchez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	183/246/294	111	243	4	4	29%	6%	53	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2019 · A	18	35→42	42→55	44→45	43	179/260/276	97	237	10	7	28%	7%	55	-2.0	214/270/343	129	278	15	7	28%	5%	73	-0.6	211/264/390	178	270	24	4	31%	5%	82	-0.0
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	40→44	42→60	44→30	44	195/277/301	106	276	10	5	31%	8%	66	-1.1	199/274/334	135	301	16	4	37%	8%	73	-0.6	207/300/402	195	286	26	2	35%	10%	96	+0.8
✕Arnaldo Lantigua 2024 · A	18	37→43	42→50	47→40	47	184/259/284	100	247	10	8	28%	9%	55	-1.9	194/272/317	123	257	13	6	28%	9%	68	-1.0	193/275/323	131	258	14	4	29%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→42	41→55	47→50	41	199/257/307	107	275	8	5	30%	6%	59	-1.7	197/239/329	132	279	14	5	33%	5%	57	-1.8	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	38→48	38→55	46→55	42	188/240/269	81	244	6	5	25%	5%	43	-2.8	207/266/331	124	281	13	8	29%	7%	68	-1.0	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	39→36	41→60	47→50	46	193/265/292	98	258	9	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	209/266/356	147	291	17	11	33%	7%	74	-0.5	210/280/412	202	285	27	13	35%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Raudy Read 2013 · A	19	34→44	41→55	42→45	43	167/215/259	92	188	9	4	17%	4%	32	-3.6	193/235/277	84	229	7	5	19%	4%	43	-2.8	233/285/428	196	272	25	1	25%	6%	97	+0.5
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→47	42→50	45	38	205/254/311	106	279	10	6	30%	5%	59	-1.7	206/263/350	144	289	15	8	33%	6%	72	-0.7	217/278/367	150	284	17	4	29%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Gabriel Quintana 2012 · A	19	37→44	40→55	41→45	38	184/244/275	91	258	8	5	31%	5%	47	-2.5	216/255/331	115	310	12	5	33%	3%	63	-1.3	225/256/353	128	322	15	4	34%	2%	66	-0.7
✕Cristian Santana 2017 · A	20	37→47	41→50	39→30	36	189/222/283	94	250	9	4	28%	4%	39	-3.1	234/258/361	127	319	16	2	31%	3%	72	-0.7	256/283/351	96	338	10	0	27%	3%	75	-0.3
✕Willy García 2012 · A	19	39→49	40→50	46→45	38	192/246/283	92	261	7	9	29%	5%	49	-2.4	203/239/331	128	307	15	8	37%	4%	57	-1.8	240/282/369	129	333	12	4	30%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Leo Bernal 2023 · A	19	39→49	46→45	46→50	43	204/257/334	130	246	14	5	24%	6%	65	-1.2	224/293/330	106	292	10	7	25%	8%	78	-0.3	235/299/362	127	292	15	9	24%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Eguy Rosario 2019 · A	19	42→52	40→55	48→55	39	205/259/302	97	291	7	13	31%	6%	59	-1.7	227/277/345	118	314	10	16	29%	6%	74	-0.5	240/303/388	148	312	14	21	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	46	44→50	45→50	44	228/280/353	125	273	11	9	21%	5%	78	-0.3	208/274/299	91	333	6	5	36%	7%	63	-1.3	184/263/258	74	337	4	0	42%	8%	48	-0.6
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Bryan Ramos 2021 · A	19	44→42	40→50	44→50	41	210/271/306	95	293	8	6	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/279/354	139	276	16	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	211/278/358	146	263	19	5	27%	6%	76	-0.3

Juan Sanchez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps