Nick Dumesnil — OGILVIE

Nick DumesnilOF Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION156 act + 104 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .301 / .319

PA104

HR2

K%29

BB%11

BABIP283

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE70

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	64	11	5	0	0	14	20	1	9	2	172	329	250	579	78	250	25	18	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	59	12	5	0	0	17	14	1	9	2	203	380	288	668	85	267	18	22	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	DET	—	156	138	27	5	0	4	16	47	1	8	3	196	284	319	603	123	261	30	10	274	68	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
YTD	22	A	DET	—	156	133	32	6	0	5	21	33	1	8	3	241	348	398	747	158	281	21	13	337	116	+3	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.7
ROS	22	A	DET	0%	104	91	19	4	0	2	11	30	1	3	1	209	301	319	620	110	277	29	11	284	75	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
ROS	22	MLB	DET	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		272	—	—	273	67	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	22	A	DET	—	156	139	27	5	0	4	16	47	1	8	3	194	284	317	600	122	258	30	10	274	68	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
TOT	22	A	DET	—	260	229	46	9	0	6	27	77	2	11	4	201	291	319	609	118	270	30	10	278	71	-9	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	DET	34%	256	225	48	9	1	6	27	72	2	6	2	213	303	342	645	129	281	28	11	292	82	-5	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2028	24	MLB	DET	46%	350	308	67	13	1	9	36	96	3	9	2	218	305	354	659	136	283	27	10	297	85	-6	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.3
2029	25	MLB	DET	52%	400	352	77	15	2	10	41	109	4	10	3	219	307	358	665	139	284	27	10	299	87	-6	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.4
2030	26	MLB	DET	54%	432	381	84	16	2	11	44	117	4	11	3	220	308	360	667	139	284	27	10	300	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.5
2031	27	MLB	DET	54%	443	390	86	17	2	11	46	120	4	11	3	221	309	359	668	138	284	27	10	300	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.5
2032	28	MLB	DET	54%	447	394	86	17	2	11	46	122	4	10	3	218	306	355	662	137	283	27	10	299	87	-7	+1	-0	-3	+13	0.4
2033	29	MLB	DET	53%	442	389	84	16	2	11	46	122	4	9	3	216	305	352	657	136	282	28	10	297	86	-7	+1	-1	-3	+13	0.2
2027	23	MLB	DET	34%	88	78	16	3	0	2	9	25	1	2	1	205	295	321	616	115	276	28	10	281	73	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	DET	46%	161	142	31	6	1	4	17	44	1	4	1	218	306	359	665	141	278	27	11	285	76	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	DET	52%	207	182	40	8	1	5	21	56	2	5	1	220	307	357	664	137	279	27	10	287	78	-5	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.0
2030	26	MLB	DET	54%	234	206	45	9	1	6	24	63	2	6	2	218	306	359	665	141	279	27	10	288	79	-6	+0	+0	-1	+7	0.0
2031	27	MLB	DET	54%	240	211	46	9	1	6	25	65	2	6	2	218	307	355	662	137	279	27	10	288	79	-6	+0	+0	-1	+7	0.0
2032	28	MLB	DET	54%	243	214	46	9	1	6	25	66	2	6	1	215	303	350	653	136	278	27	10	287	78	-6	+1	-0	-1	+7	-0.0
2033	29	MLB	DET	53%	235	206	44	8	1	6	25	65	2	5	1	214	305	350	654	136	277	28	11	286	77	-6	+1	-1	-1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1408	1240	268	52	6	35	146	384	12	34	9	216	305	352	657	136	282	27	10	287	78	-35	+3	-0	-8	+40	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	124	24	3	16	67	177	6	16	4	217	305	353	659	136	283	27	10	287	78	-16	+2	-0	-4	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	2953	2594	562	112	12	71	311	808	27	78	22	217	307	351	658	135	284	27	11	297	86	-48	+7	-0	-18	+84	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	125	25	3	16	68	178	6	17	5	219	309	357	666	138	287	27	10	297	86	-11	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	59	12	5	0	0	17	14	1	9	2	203	380	288	668	85	267	18	22	321	104	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,534	38	36	218	304	354	-9	+4	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	16	16	218	304	354	-4.0	+1.8	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Dumesnil (OGILVIE)	22	42	47	57	70	201/291/319	118	270	6	11	30%	10%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→55	57→55	49	219/303/341	122	299	9	19	28%	10%	82	+0.5	220/282/336	116	290	11	21	26%	7%	72	-0.2	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	47	44→45	55	46	225/302/347	122	301	11	14	27%	8%	83	+0.6	226/284/337	111	307	10	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→50	48→50	54→55	46	235/299/377	141	293	16	14	25%	8%	90	+1.0	211/279/333	122	267	11	20	24%	7%	70	-0.3	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	45	223/293/342	119	282	12	16	24%	7%	79	+0.3	210/268/294	84	282	6	12	26%	6%	55	-1.4	194/247/254	61	264	3	10	27%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	44	44→45	56→55	43	211/290/329	118	311	11	16	33%	8%	74	-0.1	195/266/292	97	301	9	12	36%	7%	54	-1.4	169/241/249	80	256	8	12	35%	7%	31	-1.1
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	78	+0.2	210/269/323	113	265	11	17	24%	7%	63	-0.8	202/247/302	100	249	8	18	22%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	41→51	47→50	54→55	41	205/273/349	144	294	13	13	34%	7%	72	-0.2	233/279/364	131	293	11	16	24%	6%	77	+0.1	244/287/365	121	297	10	15	21%	5%	78	+0.2
✕Taylor Motter 2012 · A	22	49→50	42→55	55	53	235/311/343	108	288	9	20	21%	10%	85	+0.7	230/295/334	104	286	9	20	21%	8%	76	+0.1	214/291/395	181	261	23	5	27%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Nick Loftin 2022 · A	23	45→53	45→50	53→50	49	224/290/352	128	265	11	11	20%	7%	79	+0.3	236/299/370	134	274	15	14	20%	7%	88	+0.9	240/320/368	128	270	14	11	16%	9%	94	+0.9
✕Alerick Soularie 2022 · A	23	43	43→45	54→60	45	205/286/312	107	309	10	15	34%	9%	68	-0.5	194/278/311	117	294	12	22	35%	9%	65	-0.7	176/267/290	113	262	13	29	35%	9%	53	-0.7
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	44→48	43→45	51→50	41	215/278/328	113	300	10	11	30%	6%	68	-0.5	198/268/323	125	313	14	12	39%	7%	63	-0.8	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Josh Elander 2013 · A	22	44→50	44→50	50→45	47	219/288/336	118	263	11	7	21%	7%	75	-0.0	229/287/354	125	303	13	7	27%	7%	79	+0.3	230/287/364	134	304	15	8	28%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	67	-0.5	235/295/331	96	314	8	26	26%	7%	76	+0.0	261/318/388	127	324	12	31	22%	7%	96	+1.3
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→40	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	70	-0.3	203/283/350	147	273	16	6	30%	9%	76	+0.1	186/275/344	157	252	18	6	32%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Manuel Hilario 2014 · A	22	44	40→45	57→55	47	209/283/310	101	272	6	18	24%	8%	66	-0.6	206/261/285	79	284	5	10	28%	6%	50	-1.8	167/216/208	41	224	4	10	26%	4%	8	-0.8
✕Ryan Vilade 2021 · A	22	45→51	40→50	51→50	46	216/277/308	92	280	6	13	24%	7%	62	-0.9	210/269/296	86	277	5	11	24%	7%	56	-1.3	227/289/416	189	269	24	16	25%	7%	94	+0.8