Nick Dumesnil

OF Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1685ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ADET	79	.203/.380/.288	0	9	67	—	.185/.329/.262
2026	22	ADET	250	.250/.349/.384	6	14	62	—	.204/.281/.298
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBDET	360	.231/.308/.353	7	8	88	0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBDET	54	.229/.306/.353	1	1	90	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBDET	107	.230/.308/.358	2	2	92	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed64

Z-Con%57

K%53

BB%49

Max EV47

Whiff%35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTim Tawa (age 23) · Brandon Meredith (age 23) · Austin Wells (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 147 proj PA

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .305 / .350

PA147

HR3

K%29

BB%9

ISO122

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	59	12	5	0	0	17	14	1	9	2	203	380	288	668	85	267	18	22	321	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	250	216	54	11	0	6	29	58	4	14	4	250	349	384	734	134	314	23	12	333	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	65	12	5	0	0	13	19	1	9	2	185	329	262	591	77	246	24	16	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	250	225	46	9	0	4	20	79	4	14	4	204	281	298	579	93	287	32	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	65	12	5	0	0	13	19	1	9	2	185	329	262	591	77	261	24	16	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	59	12	5	0	0	17	14	1	9	2	203	380	288	668	85	267	18	22	321	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	250	225	46	9	0	4	20	79	4	14	4	204	281	298	579	93	294	32	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	250	216	54	11	0	6	29	58	4	14	4	250	349	384	734	134	314	23	12	333	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	65	12	5	0	0	13	19	1	9	2	185	329	262	591	77	246	24	16	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	250	224	46	9	0	4	20	79	4	14	4	205	281	299	580	94	287	32	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	65	12	5	0	0	13	19	1	9	2	185	329	262	591	77	246	24	16	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	250	224	46	9	0	4	20	79	4	14	4	205	281	299	580	94	287	32	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	0%	360	321	74	14	2	7	32	106	4	8	2	231	308	353	661	122	318	29	9	298	88	-5	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	30%	178	158	37	7	1	4	16	52	2	4	1	233	310	361	671	128	317	29	9	302	90	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	44%	242	216	50	10	1	5	22	69	2	5	1	234	311	366	678	132	316	29	9	304	92	-2	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	51%	295	264	63	12	2	7	26	84	3	6	2	235	312	370	682	134	315	28	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	52%	321	286	67	13	2	7	29	90	3	6	2	235	311	369	680	134	313	28	9	305	93	-3	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	53%	334	298	70	13	2	8	30	94	3	6	2	233	310	366	676	133	311	28	9	304	92	-3	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	53%	333	297	69	13	2	7	30	95	3	4	1	231	307	360	666	129	309	29	9	300	89	-4	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	30%	54	48	11	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	229	306	353	659	124	312	30	9	297	90	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	44%	107	95	22	4	1	2	10	31	1	2	1	230	308	358	665	128	311	29	9	300	92	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	51%	150	134	31	6	1	3	13	43	2	3	1	231	308	361	669	130	309	29	9	301	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	52%	168	149	35	7	1	4	15	47	2	3	1	230	308	360	668	130	308	28	9	300	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	53%	178	158	37	7	1	4	16	50	2	3	1	229	306	357	663	128	305	28	9	299	92	-2	+0	-0	-1	+4	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	53%	175	155	36	7	1	4	16	50	2	2	1	227	303	351	654	125	304	29	9	295	89	-2	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	832	739	172	33	5	18	75	237	10	14	5	233	312	364	676	131	315	28	9	299	87	-8	+1	-1	-5	+18	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	135	26	4	14	59	185	8	11	4	234	314	366	679	132	317	28	9	299	87	-7	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2179	1940	445	88	11	45	199	625	23	57	16	229	309	356	664	126	312	29	9	297	87	-19	+3	-1	-11	+40	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	132	26	3	13	59	186	7	17	5	228	307	351	658	123	311	29	9	297	87	-7	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 250 PAwOBA .326 → .260 (−66)K% 23.2% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.20%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	31.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.60%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	8.00%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.25%
Singles /BIP	23.42%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.024	—	22.06%
Doubles /BIP	6.96%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.024	—	5.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.024	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.80%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	3.04%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .326 → .260; ISO .134 → .103; BABIP .314 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 79 PAwOBA .314 → .267 (−48)K% 17.7% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.72%	÷0.998	×1.360	—	—	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.52%	÷0.945	×0.690	—	×1.015	15.95%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.00%
Singles /BIP	15.56%	÷1.051	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	14.51%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.971	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	10.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.864	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .314 → .267; ISO .085 → .080; BABIP .267 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Turner Ward'90-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,789 PA	2.7	1,789	39	33	241*	319*	384*	-11	+10	2.7	3.7
/162	664	14	12	-4.2	+3.7	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.5	978	22	18	234	307	365	-6	+4	1.3	1.3
/162	664	15	13	-4.0	+2.8	0.9	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Dumesnil (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	229/305/350	121	318	3	3	29%	9%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Brandon Meredith 2013 · A	23	46→39	50	52→45	43	232/298/391	159	310	17	11	30%	7%	94	+0.9	211/289/360	149	277	17	7	29%	9%	84	+0.1	195/280/338	143	251	17	5	28%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43→44	48→55	56→50	47	212/302/359	147	307	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.5	219/297/382	163	280	19	10	28%	9%	92	+0.7	215/296/383	167	260	20	8	25%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Ryan Cordell 2015 · A	23	52→42	48→50	56→50	44	256/307/407	151	319	15	16	24%	6%	101	+1.4	227/273/376	149	291	17	14	27%	5%	81	-0.1	216/263/367	151	275	18	14	28%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	222/290/341	119	280	12	16	24%	7%	80	-0.2	214/272/298	84	283	6	12	25%	6%	62	-1.4	205/259/264	60	274	3	10	25%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Troy Schreffler Jr. 2024 · A	23	46	43→50	53→60	46	217/298/327	110	322	11	22	34%	9%	80	-0.2	195/249/310	115	301	12	22	37%	6%	57	-1.8	166/211/280	114	254	12	26	39%	4%	33	-1.3
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→51	48→50	54→55	46	236/300/377	141	294	16	14	25%	8%	91	+0.7	207/275/323	116	264	10	20	24%	7%	70	-0.9	240/304/385	144	304	14	21	24%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Taylor Featherston 2013 · A	23	47→46	44→50	51→50	44	226/291/350	124	304	11	11	28%	7%	82	-0.0	221/268/359	138	289	14	12	28%	5%	75	-0.5	213/256/352	139	273	14	12	27%	4%	67	-0.8
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→50	57→55	50	221/307/345	123	302	9	19	28%	10%	86	+0.3	220/283/335	115	289	10	21	26%	7%	75	-0.5	222/292/345	123	288	15	8	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Kevin Watson Jr 2023 · A	24	45	45→50	56→50	47	210/301/336	126	321	12	13	35%	10%	82	+0.0	227/301/308	81	318	5	10	27%	9%	76	-0.4	241/318/290	49	329	0	8	24%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	44	44→45	56→55	44	210/292/329	119	303	11	16	32%	8%	78	-0.3	197/269/298	101	299	9	12	35%	8%	62	-1.4	173/246/259	86	259	8	12	34%	7%	43	-1.0
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Alerick Soularie 2022 · A	23	43	42→45	54→60	45	206/285/309	103	308	10	15	34%	9%	70	-0.8	197/279/312	115	290	12	22	34%	9%	70	-0.9	181/270/293	112	261	13	29	33%	9%	60	-0.7
✕Nick Loftin 2022 · A	23	46→53	45	53→50	48	228/293/356	128	271	11	11	20%	7%	84	+0.1	235/299/357	122	275	13	14	19%	7%	86	+0.3	231/320/355	124	264	10	10	16%	10%	94	+0.6
✕Corey Julks 2019 · A	23	46→50	43→50	52→55	43	222/280/337	115	306	10	18	30%	7%	74	-0.5	214/275/320	106	297	9	13	29%	7%	68	-1.0	231/290/385	154	289	18	21	26%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Tanner O'Tremba 2024 · A	24	43	43→45	54→50	40	205/296/322	116	309	10	13	34%	7%	78	-0.3	193/277/297	104	309	9	14	38%	7%	65	-1.2	132/229/210	78	232	8	17	42%	7%	27	-1.5
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Colby Thomas 2024 · A	23	46	46→55	53→50	35	221/272/359	137	327	13	15	35%	5%	77	-0.3	220/276/389	169	299	19	11	32%	5%	86	+0.3	212/270/384	172	282	21	9	32%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Wenceel Pérez 2023 · AA	23	48→49	47→55	58→55	46	236/291/382	145	287	12	16	22%	7%	88	+0.5	236/299/378	142	289	13	17	22%	8%	91	+0.6	236/303/381	146	287	14	17	22%	8%	92	+0.6

Nick Dumesnil

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps