Nick Dumesnil — OGILVIE

Nick DumesnilOF Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION250 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP284

ISO119

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	59	12	5	0	0	17	14	1	9	2	203	380	288	668	85	267	18	22	321	103	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	64	11	5	0	0	14	20	1	9	2	172	329	250	579	78	258	25	18	279	75	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	64	11	5	0	0	14	20	1	9	2	172	329	250	579	78	250	25	18	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	59	12	5	0	0	17	14	1	9	2	203	380	288	668	85	267	18	22	321	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	64	11	5	0	0	14	20	1	9	2	172	329	250	579	78	258	25	18	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	79	64	11	5	0	0	14	20	1	9	2	172	329	250	579	78	258	25	18	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	DET	—	250	223	46	10	0	5	22	82	4	14	4	206	289	318	608	112	299	33	9	269	68	-9	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	DET	—	250	216	54	11	0	6	29	58	4	14	4	250	349	384	734	134	314	23	12	333	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	DET	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		289	30	10	282	77	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	DET	—	260	232	47	10	0	5	23	85	4	14	4	203	286	310	596	108	294	33	9	270	69	-10	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	34%	261	231	50	10	1	6	25	77	3	7	2	216	301	346	647	130	290	30	10	289	82	-6	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	46%	354	314	67	13	1	8	33	102	4	9	2	213	296	338	634	124	292	29	9	294	85	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	52%	403	357	79	15	2	10	38	114	5	10	3	221	305	359	664	137	292	28	9	297	87	-6	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	54%	434	385	86	17	2	11	41	122	5	11	3	223	306	364	670	140	291	28	9	299	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+9	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	54%	444	394	87	17	2	11	42	126	5	11	3	221	304	358	662	137	291	28	9	299	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	54%	448	396	87	17	2	11	43	127	6	11	3	220	306	356	662	136	291	28	10	298	88	-7	+1	-0	-3	+10	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	53%	442	391	85	17	1	11	43	127	5	10	3	217	303	350	653	133	290	29	10	296	86	-7	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	52%	435	385	82	16	1	10	42	126	5	9	2	213	299	338	636	125	288	29	10	293	84	-8	+1	-2	-3	+9	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	34%	90	80	16	3	0	2	9	27	1	2	1	200	289	312	601	112	285	30	10	275	82	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	46%	163	145	32	6	1	4	15	47	2	4	1	221	302	359	661	138	286	29	9	280	85	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	52%	208	183	40	8	1	5	20	59	3	5	1	219	306	355	661	137	287	28	10	283	87	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	54%	235	208	46	9	1	6	22	66	3	6	2	221	305	361	665	139	286	28	9	284	88	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	54%	241	213	47	9	1	6	23	68	3	6	2	221	305	357	662	136	286	28	10	285	88	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	54%	243	215	47	9	1	6	23	69	3	6	2	219	303	353	656	135	286	28	9	284	88	-4	+0	-0	-1	+5	0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	53%	235	207	45	9	1	5	23	67	3	5	1	217	305	343	648	126	285	29	10	282	86	-4	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	52%	228	201	43	8	1	5	22	66	3	5	1	214	301	338	639	124	283	29	10	279	84	-4	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1643	1452	316	61	7	39	157	469	21	39	11	218	303	350	653	132	291	29	10	282	86	-26	+3	-1	-10	+36	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	125	24	3	15	62	186	8	15	4	218	302	348	651	131	293	29	10	282	86	-10	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3310	2926	635	127	12	78	322	944	39	87	23	217	303	349	652	132	290	29	10	295	86	-53	+7	-2	-19	+70	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	124	25	2	15	63	185	8	17	5	216	302	344	647	129	288	28	10	295	86	-11	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.7	1,772	42	42	219	301	351	-11	+5	1.4	1.3
/162	664	16	16	-4.0	+1.9	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Dumesnil (OGILVIE)	22	42	47	57	63	206/292/322	115	289	3	5	30%	10%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	42→50	51→55	47	210/284/319	109	280	9	10	27%	8%	72	-0.7	203/288/320	117	266	12	14	26%	10%	74	-0.5	197/276/341	144	245	18	22	27%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	46→47	44→55	54→55	45	221/283/350	129	308	10	11	30%	8%	78	-0.3	210/262/317	107	334	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	203/279/378	175	281	20	18	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	221/288/339	118	278	11	16	24%	6%	78	-0.3	214/270/297	83	283	6	12	25%	6%	61	-1.5	205/257/264	59	274	3	10	25%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→41	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	74	-0.6	207/286/361	154	270	17	6	28%	9%	83	+0.1	192/278/355	163	249	19	6	30%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Alerick Soularie 2022 · A	23	43	42→45	54→60	45	207/286/310	104	309	10	15	34%	9%	71	-0.8	194/277/309	115	290	12	22	35%	9%	68	-1.0	178/266/288	110	261	13	29	34%	9%	58	-0.8
✕Ryan Vilade 2021 · A	22	47→51	41→55	51→50	46	226/283/325	100	287	8	13	24%	7%	72	-0.7	221/279/309	88	288	6	11	24%	7%	67	-1.1	225/289/385	159	278	18	15	25%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Matthew Lugo 2023 · A	22	47→48	45→55	53→50	40	232/277/359	128	297	12	13	26%	5%	78	-0.3	216/265/358	142	298	14	14	31%	5%	74	-0.6	207/265/367	160	289	17	16	33%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Phillip Ervin 2015 · A	23	42→51	43→50	56→55	43	208/263/326	118	266	9	16	25%	6%	65	-1.2	209/282/325	116	264	11	24	24%	8%	73	-0.6	235/299/371	136	298	13	21	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→50	53→55	40	202/262/329	127	284	11	19	32%	6%	66	-1.1	201/268/318	117	295	9	17	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Nick Loftin 2022 · A	23	47→52	45	53→50	48	229/294/357	128	272	11	11	20%	7%	84	+0.2	233/296/353	120	273	13	14	19%	7%	84	+0.2	228/318/350	122	261	10	9	16%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Josh Elander 2013 · A	22	44→49	44→50	50→45	47	219/288/336	118	263	11	7	21%	7%	78	-0.3	227/285/345	118	300	11	7	27%	7%	78	-0.3	228/284/353	125	301	13	8	28%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	194/277/307	113	282	11	9	33%	9%	68	-1.0	224/272/334	110	313	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	234/286/330	96	304	9	3	25%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	48	209/283/307	98	259	8	11	22%	8%	70	-0.9	206/261/321	115	251	13	9	23%	6%	63	-1.3	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2019 · A	23	44→42	40→50	53→55	40	211/273/310	98	303	7	14	31%	6%	65	-1.2	216/283/342	126	287	11	10	27%	7%	78	-0.3	218/314/364	146	281	15	27	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Manuel Hilario 2014 · A	22	44	40→45	57→55	47	209/283/310	101	272	6	18	24%	8%	70	-0.8	206/261/285	79	284	5	10	28%	6%	55	-1.9	167/216/208	41	224	4	10	26%	4%	19	-0.8
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2018 · AA	22	41→38	45→50	53→55	45	208/273/335	127	264	12	20	26%	7%	72	-0.7	197/274/326	129	275	13	16	31%	8%	71	-0.8	175/261/293	118	246	12	18	32%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Mark Zagunis 2015 · A	22	48→53	41→45	55→50	47	227/299/337	110	297	6	15	24%	8%	82	-0.0	238/326/367	129	307	11	9	24%	10%	99	+1.3	235/331/371	136	304	12	8	24%	11%	99	+0.9
✕Corey Julks 2019 · A	23	46→51	43→50	52→55	43	221/279/335	114	304	10	18	30%	7%	74	-0.6	214/275/320	106	297	9	13	29%	7%	69	-0.9	226/286/381	155	284	18	21	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	71	-0.8	236/296/330	94	314	8	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	261/318/385	124	324	11	31	22%	7%	95	+0.9
✕Drew Stubbs 2007 · A	22	42→52	41→50	54→60	41	199/272/296	98	308	9	15	36%	8%	63	-1.4	220/289/326	106	323	8	21	32%	8%	75	-0.5	240/313/368	127	325	14	37	28%	9%	90	+0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps