Colby Thomas — OGILVIE

Colby ThomasRF Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA HR -6%K -4% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2027

wRC+†vL 15399vR 21

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .282 / .406

PA250

HR10

K%35

BB%6

xwOBA.281

Barrel%13.3%

MLB%45%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

60→60

SPD

50→50

EYE

41↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.2M
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$14M	+$5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	2 teams	564	520	115	29	4	14	26	195	15	25	6	.221	.278	.373	.651	.152	.323	35	5	.277	70	-19	+3	+0	-6	+16	-0.6
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	575	526	108	29	3	25	29	182	14	15	4	.205	.265	.414	.680	.209	.255	32	5	.292	82	-12	+1	+0	-6	+16	-0.0
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	516	463	102	21	2	18	30	179	12	9	5	.220	.285	.391	.676	.171	.304	35	6	.292	81	-11	-0	-1	-6	+15	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	78	70	17	2	0	4	6	24	2	1	1	.243	.321	.443	.763	.200	.310	31	8	.322	105	+0	-0	+0	-1	+2	0.2
ROS	25	MLB	OAK	172	155	35	7	1	7	11	58	4	3	1	.226	.294	.419	.713	.194	.300	34	6	.312	97	-1	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.1
TOT	25	MLB	OAK	250	225	52	9	1	11	17	82	6	4	2	.231	.302	.427	.729	.196	.308	33	7	.315	99	-0	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 60%	OAK	415	375	88	17	2	18	28	126	9	7	2	.235	.303	.435	.738	.200	.297	30	7	.323	105	+2	+1	-3	-4	+12	0.7
2028	27	MLB 77%	OAK	421	379	89	17	2	18	30	125	9	7	2	.235	.306	.433	.739	.198	.296	30	7	.323	105	+2	+1	-3	-5	+12	0.7
2029	28	MLB 85%	OAK	422	379	88	17	2	17	31	125	9	7	2	.232	.305	.422	.728	.190	.296	30	7	.322	105	+2	+1	-4	-5	+12	0.6
2030	29	MLB 91%	OAK	414	373	87	17	2	17	30	123	8	6	1	.233	.304	.426	.730	.193	.295	30	7	.320	103	+1	+1	-5	-4	+12	0.5
2031	30	MLB	OAK	407	366	83	16	1	16	30	122	8	5	1	.227	.300	.407	.707	.180	.294	30	7	.317	101	+0	+1	-5	-4	+12	0.3
2032	31	MLB	OAK	392	352	80	16	1	15	29	119	8	3	0	.227	.301	.406	.707	.179	.293	30	7	.313	98	-1	+1	-6	-4	+11	0.1
2033	32	MLB	OAK	373	336	75	15	1	14	27	116	7	1	0	.223	.295	.399	.693	.176	.292	31	7	.309	94	-2	+0	-6	-4	+11	-0.2
2034	33	MLB	OAK	343	308	68	13	1	13	25	109	7	0	0	.221	.294	.396	.690	.175	.290	32	7	.303	90	-4	+0	-7	-4	+10	-0.5
2035	34	MLB	OAK	299	270	57	11	1	10	21	97	6	0	0	.211	.283	.370	.653	.159	.289	32	7	.296	85	-5	+0	-7	-3	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5313	4802	1075	225	23	202	347	1676	116	88	24	.224	.292	.406	.699	.183	.295	32	7	.306	92	-45	+8	-49	-57	+151	0.7
/ 162G	—			650	587	132	28	3	25	42	205	14	11	3	.225	.291	.411	.702	.186	.296	32	6	.306	92	-6	+1	-6	-7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	237	217	63	15	2	10	11	70	4	11	2	.290	.333	.516	.849	.226	.381	30	5	.365	137	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.9
2023	22	A	Stockton Ports	327	290	82	24	4	8	26	76	11	14	4	.283	.364	.476	.840	.193	.359	23	8	.372	143	+16	+1	—	—	+9	2.7
2024	23	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	314	279	76	25	2	17	23	95	9	3	3	.272	.347	.559	.906	.287	.347	30	7	.390	156	+20	-1	—	—	+9	2.9
2024	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	261	234	66	19	3	14	17	47	5	12	1	.282	.341	.568	.909	.286	.295	18	7	.387	154	+16	+2	—	—	+7	2.6
2025	24	MLB	Athletics	132	120	27	5	0	6	7	49	1	2	1	.225	.273	.417	.690	.192	.309	37	5	.295	84	-2	+0	-1	-6	+4	-0.6
2025	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	384	333	97	21	2	18	32	103	11	7	4	.291	.371	.529	.900	.237	.361	27	8	.387	155	+24	-0	—	—	+11	3.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			132	120	27	5	0	6	7	49	1	2	1	.225	.273	.417	.690	.192	.309	37	5	.295	84	-2	+0	-1	-6	+4	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Thomas (OGILVIE)	25	55	60	50	40	.216/.282/.406	.190	.297	10	5	35%	6%	93	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Keston Hiura 2022 · MLB	25	46→56	57→60	48→50	41	.233/.310/.429	.197	.329	25	10	35%	8%	109	+2.4	.231/.310/.430	.199	.327	28	6	36%	8%	110	+2.4	.231/.307/.444	.213	.318	33	3	36%	7%	107	+1.3
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	41→46	54→60	49→50	41	.216/.279/.394	.178	.298	22	15	34%	7%	86	+0.8	.225/.298/.429	.204	.290	27	11	31%	9%	104	+2.0	.219/.298/.421	.202	.276	27	10	30%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Josh Jung 2023 · MLB	25	46→51	57→60	48→45	38	.244/.293/.443	.199	.313	26	7	31%	5%	105	+2.1	.248/.293/.415	.167	.321	21	6	29%	5%	98	+1.6	.250/.294/.403	.153	.318	19	4	27%	5%	92	+0.8
✕Josh Fields 2008 · MLB	25	46→56	54→55	48→50	44	.238/.302/.416	.178	.313	22	12	31%	8%	102	+1.8	.232/.297/.392	.160	.314	19	10	31%	8%	93	+1.3	.241/.303/.378	.138	.317	15	9	28%	8%	90	+0.7
●Chris Carter 2012 · MLB	25	43→53	56→65	46→45	46	.226/.299/.415	.189	.289	24	6	30%	8%	101	+1.8	.223/.307/.428	.205	.296	27	5	32%	10%	107	+2.2	.221/.312/.438	.217	.288	29	4	33%	11%	106	+2.1
✕Jerry Sands 2013 · MLB	25	43→46	54→60	47→45	46	.227/.292/.406	.179	.277	23	6	27%	8%	95	+1.4	.214/.281/.357	.143	.281	17	3	29%	8%	77	+0.1	.236/.302/.383	.147	.286	16	2	23%	8%	90	+0.6
●Austin Hays 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	54→60	46→45	38	.235/.269/.412	.177	.279	22	9	25%	4%	87	+0.8	.240/.288/.405	.165	.284	20	8	23%	5%	93	+1.3	.255/.309/.424	.170	.302	18	4	22%	6%	104	+1.9
✕Andrew Lambo 2014 · MLB	25	43→50	55→60	46→45	40	.229/.280/.414	.185	.294	24	6	31%	6%	92	+1.2	.238/.284/.417	.179	.297	21	6	27%	6%	95	+1.4	.240/.285/.394	.154	.289	16	4	22%	5%	86	+0.3
●Kyle Stowers 2023 · MLB	25	46→56	54→65	45	41	.230/.298/.413	.183	.328	22	6	35%	8%	99	+1.7	.230/.302/.433	.203	.302	26	5	31%	8%	106	+2.2	.235/.313/.459	.225	.294	29	4	30%	9%	114	+1.9
✕Michael Chavis 2021 · MLB	25	47	56→60	50→45	41	.242/.302/.429	.187	.323	25	7	32%	7%	105	+2.1	.233/.279/.402	.169	.310	22	6	31%	5%	89	+0.9	.224/.270/.389	.165	.285	20	6	28%	5%	78	+0.1
●Scott Schebler 2016 · MLB	25	42→52	55→60	55→50	39	.223/.278/.411	.188	.277	22	12	28%	5%	91	+1.1	.239/.301/.425	.186	.282	22	8	24%	6%	104	+2.0	.244/.314/.434	.191	.283	24	5	23%	7%	105	+1.9
●David Dahl 2019 · MLB	25	49→58	54→60	50→55	42	.253/.300/.434	.181	.319	22	13	28%	6%	105	+2.1	.250/.299/.414	.164	.318	18	8	26%	6%	99	+1.7	.256/.305/.407	.151	.328	15	5	26%	6%	97	+1.0
✕Ryan Mountcastle 2022 · MLB	25	49→56	57→60	41→40	41	.255/.302/.444	.189	.312	26	4	27%	6%	109	+2.4	.253/.308/.428	.175	.310	22	5	25%	7%	107	+2.2	.257/.310/.422	.165	.314	19	4	24%	7%	103	+1.8
✕Joe Benson 2013 · MLB	25	43→50	52→60	51→50	41	.220/.286/.394	.174	.297	19	15	32%	7%	89	+1.0	.209/.275/.332	.123	.289	11	13	30%	7%	68	-0.5	.208/.279/.321	.113	.282	9	13	28%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Casper Wells 2010 · AA	25	43→46	55→60	49→50	43	.224/.297/.411	.188	.290	22	13	30%	7%	99	+1.7	.226/.293/.421	.195	.288	23	9	29%	7%	100	+1.7	.225/.297/.431	.205	.278	24	7	27%	7%	99	+1.1
●Randal Grichuk 2017 · MLB	25	44→51	60→70	45	39	.240/.286/.465	.225	.296	27	7	29%	5%	108	+2.3	.241/.290/.479	.238	.292	30	6	28%	6%	114	+2.7	.235/.285/.470	.235	.278	31	4	28%	6%	107	+2.0
●Victor Diaz 2006 · MLB	24	50→51	56→60	50	45	.258/.314/.455	.197	.324	24	12	28%	7%	117	+2.9	.226/.274/.379	.153	.310	19	8	32%	6%	80	+0.4	.230/.305/.438	.207	.323	30	9	36%	8%	108	+1.3
✕Zach Borenstein 2015 · AAA	25	46→54	54→60	45→50	40	.241/.289/.424	.183	.306	22	8	29%	6%	98	+1.6	.227/.278/.377	.150	.317	16	10	32%	6%	81	+0.4	.213/.267/.359	.146	.310	15	9	35%	7%	69	-0.3
●Jo Adell 2023 · MLB	24	40→44	54→65	47→50	35	.212/.262/.389	.176	.300	22	9	36%	5%	78	+0.2	.217/.279/.423	.206	.277	28	12	32%	7%	95	+1.4	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4
●Harrison Bader 2020 · MLB	26	46→55	52→55	51→55	45	.233/.311/.399	.167	.303	20	17	29%	8%	102	+1.8	.245/.320/.424	.179	.304	21	17	25%	8%	111	+2.5	.254/.315/.421	.167	.304	19	21	22%	7%	102	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)