Colby Thomas

RF Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 26 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.856 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAA/AAOAK575.277/.344/.563311591—.217/.278/.429
202524AAAOAK384.291/.371/.52918797—.240/.310/.401
202524MLBOAK132.225/.273/.4176284-0.7
202625AAAPHI200.206/.281/.3566238—.173/.231/.281
202625MLBOAK121.202/.235/.3334153-0.8
2027PROJ45% MLB26MLBPHI107.215/.276/.3884282-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB27MLBPHI140.214/.275/.3855281-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.856First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026
Bat Spd83
Avg EV73
Barrel%70
Speed68
xwOBA13
CompsEvan White (age 26) · Tyler Colvin (age 26) · Ryan Rua (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 8682vR 69
AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .276 / .388
PA107
HR4
K%30
BB%6
BABIP271
ISO163
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -2.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026
CONTACT55
xAVG
100.195
POWER60
Barrel%
7011.2
Avg EV
7390.7
Bat Spd
8374.8
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
6828.2
Platoon Splits2025 · 132 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
69
63
—
wRC+
140
26
◀◀L
wOBA
375
207
◀◀L
ISO
344
034
◀◀L
BABIP
281
333
▶▶R
K%
36.2%
38.1%
◀L
BB%
8.7%
1.6%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   0.856 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202322 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 237217 6315210 11704 112 290333516849 226381 305 365 64 — — — — — —
202322 AStockton Ports — 327290 822448 267611 144 283364476840 193359 238 372 78 — — — — — —
202423 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 314279 7625217 23959 33 272347559906 287347 307 390 91 — — — — — —
202423 AAMidland RockHounds — 261234 6619314 17475 121 282341568909 286295 187 387 91 — — — — — —
202524 MLBAthletics — 132120 27506 7491 21 225273417690 192309 375 295 84 -3 +0 -1 -6 +3 -0.7
202524 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 384333 9721218 3210311 74 291371529900 237361 278 387 97 — — — — — —
202625 MLBAthletics — 121114 23304 4371 11 202235333569 132260 313 249 53 -7 -0 +0 -3 +3 -0.8
202625 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 200180 37716 15614 22 206281356637 150274 308 287 38 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 253234 508010 11862 32 214255376631 162284 344 273 71 -9 -0 -1 -9 +5 -1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202322 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 237222 481116 8954 112 216256356612 140333 403 263 64 — — — — — —
202322 A MLEStockton Ports — 327298 661836 1810411 144 221291362653 141315 326 283 78 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 314284 6218212 181119 33 218286423709 204298 356 303 91 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 261241 5213212 12595 121 216267436703 220231 235 303 91 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLEAthletics — 132120 26406 7491 21 217266400666 183309 375 292 84 -3 +0 -1 -6 +3 -0.7
202524 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 384342 8218211 2412111 74 240310401711 161317 326 311 97 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEAthletics — 121114 23304 4371 11 202235333569 132260 313 247 53 -7 -0 +0 -3 +3 -0.8
202625 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 200185 32614 10734 22 173231281512 108250 365 224 38 — — — — — —
202322 A MLE2 teams — 564520 11529512 2619815 256 221278365643 144330 355 275 72 — — — — — —
202322 A RAW2 teams — 564507 14539618 3714615 256 286351493844 207368 267 369 72 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 575525 11532424 3017114 154 219279432712 213271 305 303 91 — — — — — —
202423 AAA RAW2 teams — 575513 14244531 4014214 154 277344563908 287321 257 389 91 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 516462 10923217 3117012 95 236301405706 169323 336 306 93 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAW2 teams — 516453 12426224 3915212 95 274347499845 225348 298 364 93 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 321299 54818 141105 33 181230294524 114254 344 233 44 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAW2 teams — 321294 6010110 19985 33 204264347611 143269 316 273 44 — — — — — —
202322 A MLE2 teams — 564518 11529512 2619815 256 222278367645 145323 355 275 72 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 575526 11532424 3017114 154 219279432711 213268 305 303 91 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 516468 10923217 3117012 95 233301400701 167315 336 306 93 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 321299 54818 141105 33 181230294524 114254 344 233 44 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 575526 11532424 3017114 154 219279432711 213268 305 303 91 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 516468 10923217 3117012 95 233301400701 167315 336 306 93 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 321299 54818 141105 33 181230294524 114254 344 233 44 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLEPHI 45% 371339 7314213 221127 61 212274378652 165271 306 289 82 -8 +1 -0 -4 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXPHI 45% 10798 21404 6322 20 215276388664 173271 306 294 82 -2 +0 -0 -1 +2 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLEPHI 49% 283259 5410110 17865 41 211273375648 164270 306 287 81 -7 +0 -0 -3 +6 -0.3
202827 MLB CTXPHI 49% 140129 28515 8422 20 214275385660 171271 306 292 81 -3 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 393363 7813115 191284 52 215262380642 165281 335 280 79 -12 +0 -1 -10 +9 -1.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650600 13022225 312127 83 217263385648 168284 335 280 79 -20 +0 -2 -17 +14 -2.6
Career— MLE — 24972283 4931111479 13280755 6020 216275381656 165292 325 285 79 -20 +1 -2 -15 +17 -2.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 12929421 3421014 165 217275386661 168293 325 285 79 -17 +1 -2 -12 +14 -1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 200 PAwOBA .277 → .224 (−53)K% 30.5% → 36.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.50%÷1.000×1.200——36.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.00%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0334.99%
HBP% /PA2.00%—×0.940—×1.0331.94%
Singles /BIP19.33%÷1.000×0.930×0.986×1.03318.31%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.000×0.830×0.986×1.0334.97%
Triples /BIP0.84%÷1.000×0.970×0.986×1.0330.83%
Home runs /BIP5.04%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0333.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .277 → .224; ISO .150 → .110; BABIP .274 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 384 PAwOBA .384 → .311 (−73)K% 26.8% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.82%÷1.027×1.200——31.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷0.970×0.690—×1.0486.21%
HBP% /PA2.86%—×0.940—×1.0482.82%
Singles /BIP24.35%÷1.052×0.930×0.990×1.04822.32%
Doubles /BIP9.13%÷0.988×0.830×0.990×1.0487.95%
Triples /BIP0.87%÷1.000×0.970×0.990×1.0480.87%
Home runs /BIP7.83%÷1.183×0.700—×1.0484.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .384 → .311; ISO .237 → .167; BABIP .361 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 314 PAwOBA .382 → .303 (−80)K% 30.3% → 35.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.25%÷1.022×1.200——35.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.32%÷0.952×0.690—×1.0505.57%
HBP% /PA2.87%—×0.940—×1.0502.83%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷0.974×0.930×0.965×1.05016.83%
Doubles /BIP13.59%÷1.088×0.830×0.965×1.05010.51%
Triples /BIP1.09%÷1.150×0.970×0.965×1.0500.93%
Home runs /BIP9.24%÷1.001×0.700—×1.0506.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .382 → .303; ISO .287 → .206; BABIP .347 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 261 PAwOBA .380 → .303 (−78)K% 18.0% → 22.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.01%÷0.967×1.220——22.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.51%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0274.68%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.870—×1.0271.71%
Singles /BIP16.04%÷1.060×0.920×0.950×1.02713.58%
Doubles /BIP10.16%÷1.170×0.840×0.950×1.0277.12%
Triples /BIP1.60%÷1.150×0.940×0.950×1.0271.28%
Home runs /BIP7.49%÷0.940×0.800—×1.0276.54%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .380 → .303; ISO .286 → .232; BABIP .295 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AStockton Ports · 327 PAwOBA .363 → .283 (−79)K% 23.2% → 31.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.24%÷0.996×1.360——31.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.95%÷1.004×0.690——5.46%
HBP% /PA3.36%—×0.780——2.62%
Singles /BIP21.50%÷0.979×0.920×0.983—19.85%
Doubles /BIP11.21%÷1.026×0.830×0.983—8.92%
Triples /BIP1.87%÷0.945×0.910×0.983—1.77%
Home runs /BIP3.74%÷0.945×0.800——3.17%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 89, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .363 → .283; ISO .193 → .149; BABIP .359 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 237 PAwOBA .357 → .263 (−94)K% 29.5% → 40.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.54%÷0.938×1.270——40.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.64%÷1.036×0.710—×1.0123.22%
HBP% /PA1.69%—×0.790—×1.0121.35%
Singles /BIP24.49%÷0.991×0.920×0.981×1.01222.57%
Doubles /BIP10.20%÷0.946×0.810×0.981×1.0128.67%
Triples /BIP1.36%÷1.150×0.850×0.981×1.0121.00%
Home runs /BIP6.80%÷1.209×0.800—×1.0124.55%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .357 → .263; ISO .226 → .147; BABIP .381 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).