Patrick Kivlehan
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 29 | AAA/AATOR | 514 | .255/.341/.532 | 32 | 1 | 83 | — | .204/.273/.423 |
| 2021 | 31 | AAASD | 364 | .261/.319/.508 | 21 | 4 | 48 | — | .184/.227/.319 |
| 2022 | 32 | AAACWS | 15 | .417/.533/1.000 | 2 | 0 | 157 | — | .308/.400/.615 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 302 | 266 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 320 | 391 | 530 | 921 | 211 | 375 | 22 | 9 | 399 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 248 | 224 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 286 | 350 | 402 | 751 | 116 | 333 | 17 | 7 | 336 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 65 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 215 | 213 | 428 | 49 | 209 | 26 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 431 | 377 | 113 | 23 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 78 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 300 | 378 | 485 | 863 | 186 | 348 | 18 | 10 | 377 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 157 | 142 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 282 | 338 | 563 | 901 | 282 | 298 | 20 | 8 | 382 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 111 | 93 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 280 | 391 | 473 | 864 | 194 | 301 | 15 | 13 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 518 | 472 | 121 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 36 | 113 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 256 | 316 | 453 | 769 | 197 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 337 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 88 | 83 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 301 | 341 | 518 | 859 | 217 | 344 | 18 | 5 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 333 | 625 | 143 | 333 | 46 | 8 | 289 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +1 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 399 | 370 | 94 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 108 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 254 | 302 | 416 | 718 | 162 | 327 | 27 | 6 | 317 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 204 | 178 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 208 | 305 | 399 | 704 | 191 | 257 | 30 | 11 | 315 | 91 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 27 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 50 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 320 | 256 | 576 | 47 | 281 | 22 | 12 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 437 | 396 | 118 | 29 | 4 | 20 | 32 | 99 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 298 | 361 | 543 | 904 | 245 | 351 | 23 | 7 | 393 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 470 | 413 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 29 | 45 | 132 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 328 | 508 | 836 | 269 | 276 | 28 | 10 | 363 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 44 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 421 | 488 | 789 | 1.278 | 368 | 394 | 7 | 9 | 532 | 195 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 364 | 333 | 87 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 26 | 100 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 261 | 319 | 508 | 826 | 246 | 307 | 27 | 7 | 358 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 417 | 533 | 1.000 | 1.533 | 583 | 333 | 7 | 20 | 623 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 228 | 199 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 304 | 392 | 696 | 186 | 263 | 32 | 11 | 312 | 97 | -1 | -1 | -5 | -7 | +5 | -0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 302 | 274 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 92 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 245 | 303 | 387 | 690 | 142 | 320 | 30 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 248 | 230 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 59 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 248 | 297 | 335 | 632 | 87 | 310 | 24 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 431 | 395 | 104 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 98 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 263 | 317 | 425 | 742 | 162 | 316 | 23 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 157 | 145 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 221 | 266 | 428 | 694 | 207 | 261 | 29 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 518 | 484 | 103 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 24 | 139 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 213 | 257 | 355 | 613 | 143 | 260 | 27 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 333 | 625 | 143 | 333 | 46 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +1 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 399 | 379 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 146 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 185 | 224 | 285 | 509 | 100 | 279 | 37 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 204 | 179 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 201 | 296 | 374 | 670 | 173 | 257 | 30 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 437 | 407 | 93 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 129 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 229 | 278 | 403 | 681 | 174 | 296 | 30 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 470 | 427 | 80 | 14 | 3 | 23 | 31 | 164 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 257 | 396 | 653 | 208 | 227 | 35 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 44 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 385 | 442 | 718 | 1.160 | 333 | 330 | 9 | 7 | 456 | 195 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 364 | 342 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 184 | 227 | 319 | 546 | 135 | 245 | 34 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 400 | 615 | 1.015 | 308 | 249 | 7 | 13 | 400 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 615 | 565 | 139 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 168 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 246 | 299 | 361 | 660 | 115 | 322 | 27 | 5 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 615 | 551 | 159 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 46 | 125 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 289 | 355 | 443 | 798 | 154 | 340 | 20 | 7 | 353 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 699 | 640 | 161 | 34 | 9 | 19 | 43 | 172 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 252 | 306 | 422 | 728 | 170 | 310 | 25 | 6 | 312 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 699 | 612 | 179 | 36 | 10 | 24 | 70 | 127 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 292 | 371 | 502 | 873 | 209 | 330 | 18 | 10 | 379 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 567 | 121 | 26 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 162 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 213 | 258 | 358 | 616 | 145 | 263 | 27 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 606 | 555 | 146 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 40 | 129 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 263 | 319 | 463 | 783 | 200 | 298 | 21 | 7 | 342 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 423 | 400 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 157 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 185 | 227 | 287 | 515 | 102 | 280 | 37 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 423 | 391 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 119 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 251 | 301 | 412 | 713 | 161 | 327 | 28 | 6 | 315 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 223 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 76 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 197 | 292 | 368 | 660 | 170 | 246 | 30 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 254 | 221 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 72 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 208 | 308 | 371 | 679 | 163 | 262 | 28 | 11 | 307 | 91 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 437 | 407 | 93 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 129 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 229 | 278 | 403 | 681 | 174 | 297 | 30 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas 51s | — | 437 | 396 | 118 | 29 | 4 | 20 | 32 | 99 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 298 | 361 | 543 | 904 | 245 | 351 | 23 | 7 | 393 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 466 | 93 | 18 | 3 | 25 | 34 | 167 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 269 | 412 | 681 | 212 | 245 | 32 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 451 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 32 | 49 | 135 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 341 | 532 | 873 | 277 | 289 | 26 | 10 | 378 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 364 | 342 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 184 | 227 | 319 | 546 | 135 | 249 | 34 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 364 | 333 | 87 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 26 | 100 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 261 | 319 | 508 | 826 | 246 | 307 | 27 | 7 | 358 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 400 | 615 | 1.015 | 308 | 273 | 7 | 13 | 400 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 417 | 533 | 1.000 | 1.533 | 583 | 333 | 7 | 20 | 623 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 615 | 567 | 139 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 168 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 245 | 299 | 360 | 659 | 115 | 315 | 27 | 5 | 290 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 699 | 644 | 161 | 34 | 9 | 19 | 43 | 172 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 250 | 306 | 419 | 725 | 169 | 301 | 25 | 6 | 312 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 567 | 121 | 26 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 162 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 213 | 258 | 358 | 616 | 145 | 260 | 27 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 423 | 398 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 157 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 186 | 227 | 289 | 516 | 103 | 282 | 37 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 222 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 76 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 292 | 369 | 662 | 171 | 257 | 30 | 10 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 437 | 406 | 93 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 129 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 229 | 278 | 404 | 682 | 175 | 296 | 30 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 465 | 93 | 18 | 3 | 25 | 34 | 167 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 269 | 413 | 682 | 213 | 236 | 32 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 364 | 342 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 184 | 227 | 319 | 546 | 135 | 245 | 34 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 400 | 615 | 1.015 | 308 | 249 | 7 | 13 | 400 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 228 | 199 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 304 | 392 | 696 | 186 | 263 | 32 | 11 | 312 | 76 | -1 | -1 | -5 | -7 | +5 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 567 | 117 | 14 | 3 | 29 | 68 | 205 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 206 | 303 | 395 | 698 | 189 | 262 | 32 | 10 | 312 | 76 | -2 | -2 | -14 | -21 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3927 | 3623 | 792 | 156 | 21 | 119 | 222 | 1157 | 50 | 59 | 29 | 219 | 273 | 372 | 645 | 153 | 283 | 29 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -1 | -1 | -5 | -7 | +5 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 131 | 26 | 3 | 20 | 37 | 192 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 218 | 273 | 372 | 645 | 153 | 282 | 30 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -2 | -2 | -14 | -21 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 15 PAwOBA .606 → .400 (−206)K% 6.7% → 8.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 8.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.942 | 12.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.942 | 15.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.942 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.421 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.942 | 8.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .606 → .400; ISO .583 → .319; BABIP .333 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 364 PAwOBA .350 → .239 (−111)K% 27.5% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.47% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.17% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×0.952 | 17.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.15% | ÷1.116 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×0.952 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.01% | ÷1.154 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.952 | 5.20% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 120, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .350 → .239; ISO .246 → .141; BABIP .307 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 470 PAwOBA .354 → .276 (−78)K% 28.1% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.09% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.36% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.44% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 14.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.07% | ÷0.909 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 8.43% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .354 → .276; ISO .269 → .211; BABIP .276 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 44 PAwOBA .529 → .456 (−74)K% 6.8% → 8.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.956 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.948 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.064 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.948 | 10.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.860 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 7.37% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .529 → .456; ISO .368 → .320; BABIP .394 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALas Vegas 51s · 437 PAwOBA .383 → .295 (−88)K% 22.7% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.65% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.89% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×0.974 | ×0.982 | 18.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.76% | ÷0.918 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×0.982 | 8.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.959 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×0.982 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.73% | ÷1.009 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 5.11% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 92, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .383 → .295; ISO .245 → .182; BABIP .351 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 399 PAwOBA .309 → .226 (−83)K% 27.1% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.07% | ÷0.951 | ×1.290 | — | — | 36.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.02% | ÷1.004 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.28% | ÷1.026 | ×0.900 | ×1.006 | ×1.003 | 20.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.87% | ÷0.987 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.003 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.003 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.160 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 106, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .309 → .226; ISO .162 → .106; BABIP .327 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 518 PAwOBA .330 → .267 (−62)K% 21.8% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.81% | ÷1.049 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.76% | ÷1.046 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.33% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | ×0.998 | ×1.018 | 18.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.96% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | ×0.998 | ×1.018 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.998 | ×1.018 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.13% | ÷1.127 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 4.32% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 110, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .330 → .267; ISO .197 → .146; BABIP .289 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAJackson Generals · 431 PAwOBA .371 → .318 (−52)K% 18.1% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.10% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.98% | ÷1.083 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.08% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 21.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.34% | ÷0.975 | ×0.880 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 2.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷0.930 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.16% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 94, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .371 → .318; ISO .186 → .168; BABIP .348 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .