Ariel De La Cruz

Ariel De La Cruz P DSL Reds

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.94

FIP5.94

K%20.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	18	82	21	12	2	0%	1.2	17.4%	18.3%	-0.9%	3.0%	4.91	5.60	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	18	82	21	12	2	0%	1.2	17.4%	18.3%	-0.9%	3.0%	4.91	5.60	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	15	0	18	82	21	12	2	0%	1.2	25.6%	14.6%	11.0%	2.4%	4.91	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	2	30	139	23	34	2	14%	2.1	11.3%	30.6%	-19.3%	2.0%	6.90	7.14	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	2	30	139	23	34	2	14%	2.1	11.3%	30.6%	-19.3%	2.0%	6.90	7.14	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	2	30	139	23	34	2	14%	2.1	16.5%	24.5%	-7.9%	1.4%	6.90	5.83	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	2	27	124	34	22	2	15%	2.1	18.6%	22.2%	-3.5%	2.3%	4.28	5.57	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	2	27	124	34	22	2	15%	2.1	18.6%	22.2%	-3.5%	2.3%	4.28	5.57	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	2	27	124	34	22	2	15%	2.1	27.4%	17.7%	9.7%	1.6%	4.28	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	15	0	16	68	14	14	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	20.0%	0.1%	3.0%	5.94	5.94	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	27	0	28	120	26	20	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	2.9%	5.53	5.37	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	13	0	14	59	13	10	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	2.9%	5.53	5.37	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	13	10	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	2.9%	5.53	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	143	29	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	2.9%	5.53	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		42	4	76	345	53	85	8	10%	1.8	15.4%	24.6%	-9.3%	2.3%	5.47	6.21	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	11	200	912	140	225	21	10%	1.8	15.4%	24.6%	-9.3%	2.3%	5.47	6.21	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ariel De La Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.94	20.1%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.37	21.4%	4.8%	28	-0.57	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	86
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	83
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	82
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	81
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	80
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	80
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	79
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.25	223	78
Kevin Escorcia L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	21	SU	5.05	17.3%	21.2%	1.3%	.233	3.48	22.1%	9.2%	129	-1.57	3.16	189	78
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	77
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	77
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	77