Tyson Hardin

P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.2 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #88MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ACarolina Mudc…	2	1	4	4.91	3.65	11.8%	11.8%	—	K 11.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.60
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	21	96	2.72	2.04	24.7%	4.4%	—	K 19.4% · BB 4.9% · FIP 2.52
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	25	120	5.34	2.90	26.9%	7.2%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	24	24	140	3.79	3.79	22.1%	6.3%	1.9
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBMIL	12	12	73	3.89	3.88	22.2%	6.4%	1.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBMIL	17	17	101	3.94	3.96	22.2%	6.6%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command50FB velo51

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 77%

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Tyler Stuart (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%22.1%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4550

CTRL—55

CMD4550

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$34M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.60	—
2024	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.60	—
2024	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	0.8%	2.72	2.52	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	0.8%	2.72	2.52	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	24.7%	4.4%	20.4%	0.8%	2.72	2.04	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.4%	5.34	3.38	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.4%	5.34	3.38	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	26.9%	7.2%	19.8%	2.1%	5.34	2.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	24	24	140	591	130	37	15	100%	5.8	22.1%	6.3%	15.8%	2.5%	3.79	3.79	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	152	641	143	41	16	100%	6.1	22.2%	6.4%	15.9%	2.6%	3.82	3.81	+2.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	153	648	144	42	17	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.6%	15.7%	2.6%	3.87	3.89	+1.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	153	648	143	44	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+1.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	146	619	135	43	18	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.06	4.13	+1.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	138	581	125	43	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.21	4.30	+1.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	128	542	114	42	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	3.3%	4.39	4.50	+0.6
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	502	104	40	18	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.1%	12.6%	3.6%	4.59	4.73	+0.2
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	109	460	93	39	18	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.9%	4.82	4.98	-0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	99	419	82	38	17	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	4.2%	5.08	5.25	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	69	20	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	6.4%	15.9%	2.7%	3.89	3.88	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	101	426	95	28	12	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.6%	15.7%	2.8%	3.94	3.96	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	118	498	110	34	14	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+1.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	121	511	112	36	16	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.0%	14.8%	3.1%	4.14	4.21	+1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	119	502	108	37	16	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.39	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	115	486	102	37	17	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.59	+0.5
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	108	456	94	37	17	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.6%	3.8%	4.69	4.83	+0.2
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	101	426	86	36	17	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.93	5.09	-0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	87	367	72	33	16	100%	6.2	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	4.4%	5.19	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	157	944	3986	848	297	134	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.5%	13.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.10	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	63	28	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.5%	13.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		49	47	219	921	195	57	16	96%	4.5	21.1%	6.2%	15.0%	1.7%	4.19	3.03	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	840	178	52	14	96%	4.5	21.1%	6.2%	15.0%	1.7%	4.19	3.03	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Hardin (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	22.1%	6.3%	2.5%	—	3.90	22.2%	15.6%	458	+0.11	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	86
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	84
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	84
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	83
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	83
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	83
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	82
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	81
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	80
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	80
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	80
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	79
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	79
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	79
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	79
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	78
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	78
Mike Hauschild R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	25	SP	3.26	17.2%	6.4%	1.5%	.311	3.78	17.5%	8.1%	349	+0.52	3.17	579	77
Julian Merryweather R 2017 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.61	2.18	548	77
Gavin Stone R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP	3.85	20.0%	6.4%	3.0%	.281	3.33	29.6%	23.7%	15	-0.52	2.39	500	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	134	21.5%	7.2%	1.19	4.20
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Shaun Marcum ('15)	5.2	129	19.4%	7.3%	1.22	3.93
Wandy Rodriguez ('15)	7.8	142	19.2%	8.0%	1.07	4.10
Hank Borowy ('42-'51, 19 WAR*)	8.6	172	20.1%*	7.9%*	1.21*	4.11*
Doug Rau ('72-'81, 17 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.1%*	6.9%*	1.16*	4.05*