Riley Maddox — OGILVIE

Riley Maddox P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.0%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	1	5	17	7	0	1	50%	2.5	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	5.9%	3.60	2.85	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	1	5	17	7	0	1	50%	2.5	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	5.9%	3.60	2.85	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	1	5	17	7	0	1	50%	2.5	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	5.9%	3.60	2.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	23	127	529	117	48	5	92%	5.1	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	1.2%	3.41	3.60	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	23	127	529	117	48	5	92%	5.1	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	1.2%	3.41	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	WSH	20	19	102	419	96	37	3	95%	5.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	0.7%	3.10	2.68	—
2026	23	AA RAW	WSH	5	4	25	110	21	11	2	80%	5.0	19.1%	10.0%	9.1%	1.8%	4.68	3.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	127	537	112	50	15	100%	5.5	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.8%	4.51	4.46	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	129	543	116	48	15	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.42	4.37	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	129	543	117	48	16	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.37	4.34	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	127	535	115	47	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	123	519	111	47	16	100%	6.2	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.42	4.46	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	118	496	105	46	16	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	110	466	97	44	16	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	103	434	89	43	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.97	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	95	402	80	41	15	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.8%	5.06	5.19	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	55	232	48	22	7	100%	5.5	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.8%	4.51	4.46	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	85	359	77	32	10	100%	5.7	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.42	4.37	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	102	431	93	38	12	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.37	4.34	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	108	456	98	40	13	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	99	41	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.42	4.46	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	107	452	96	42	14	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	102	431	90	41	14	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	96	405	83	40	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.97	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	89	376	75	39	14	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.8%	5.06	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	853	3603	759	335	114	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.23	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	79	27	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		27	24	132	546	98	55	7	89%	4.9	17.9%	10.0%	7.9%	1.3%	3.42	3.57	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	36	200	829	149	83	11	89%	4.9	17.9%	10.0%	7.9%	1.3%	3.42	3.57	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Maddox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.0%	9.9%	2.9%	—	4.39	21.3%	12.3%	384	-0.24	—	—	—
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	86
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	81
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	80
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	80
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	78
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	78
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	78
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	108	21.1%	9.3%	1.21	4.56
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88