Riley Maddox

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#455ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AWSH	2	1	5	3.60	2.90	41.2%	0.0%	—	K 41.2% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.85
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	127	3.41	2.90	22.1%	9.1%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.60
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.60	4.60	17.8%	10.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBWSH	7	7	39	4.49	4.43	19.1%	9.6%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBWSH	9	9	56	4.41	4.37	19.8%	9.4%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsDylan Burns (age 25) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Jake Walters (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%17.8%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP89

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	1	5	17	7	0	1	50%	2.5	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	5.9%	3.60	2.85	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	1	5	17	7	0	1	50%	2.5	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	5.9%	3.60	2.85	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	1	5	17	7	0	1	50%	2.5	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	5.9%	3.60	2.90	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	127	529	117	48	5	92%	5.1	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	1.2%	3.41	3.60	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	127	529	117	48	5	92%	5.1	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	1.2%	3.41	3.60	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	127	529	117	48	5	92%	5.1	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	0.9%	3.41	2.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.4%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	92	386	74	37	10	100%	5.7	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.5%	4.49	4.43	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	85	358	71	34	9	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.5%	4.41	4.37	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	80	340	68	32	9	100%	6.2	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.6%	4.40	4.40	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	321	64	31	9	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.5%	10.3%	2.7%	4.45	4.48	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	297	58	29	8	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	2.8%	4.55	4.61	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	64	269	52	27	8	100%	5.8	19.3%	10.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.79	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	57	240	45	25	8	100%	6.3	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	3.3%	4.88	4.99	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	39	165	31	16	4	100%	5.6	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.5%	4.49	4.43	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	47	22	6	100%	6.2	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.5%	4.41	4.37	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	52	25	7	100%	6.2	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.6%	4.40	4.40	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	64	270	54	26	7	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.5%	10.3%	2.7%	4.45	4.48	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	51	25	7	100%	6.2	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	2.8%	4.55	4.61	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	46	24	7	100%	5.7	19.3%	10.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.79	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	41	23	7	100%	5.8	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	3.3%	4.88	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	393	1659	324	161	46	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.20	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	82	23	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		27	24	132	546	98	55	7	89%	4.9	17.9%	10.0%	7.9%	1.3%	3.42	3.57	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	36	200	829	149	83	11	89%	4.9	17.9%	10.0%	7.9%	1.3%	3.42	3.57	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 102 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.39 (+0.71)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.770	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.83%	—	×1.150	10.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 25 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.39 (+0.63)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.09%	—	×0.810	15.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Maddox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	—	4.40	19.6%	10.1%	257	-0.20	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	93
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	91
Jake Walters R 2019 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	17.4%	9.2%	1.3%	.260	3.78	18.2%	7.6%	97	+0.27	3.51	261	88
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	88
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	87
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	87
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	86
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	86
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	86
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	86
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	86
Noah Davis R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	19.4%	11.8%	1.5%	.264	4.94	18.7%	8.3%	312	+1.18	3.76	596	86
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	85
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	85
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	85
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	85
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	84
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	77	19.3%	9.8%	1.04	4.54
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Tom Bolton ('87-'94, 3 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.3%*	9.6%*	0.92*	4.57*
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*