Jeury Espinal — OGILVIE

Jeury Espinal P ACL D-backs

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.2%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	4	40	162	58	8	4	36%	3.7	24.3%	6.2%	18.2%	3.0%	3.12	3.45	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	4	40	162	58	8	4	36%	3.7	24.3%	6.2%	18.2%	3.0%	3.12	3.45	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	11	4	40	162	58	8	4	36%	3.7	35.8%	4.9%	30.9%	2.5%	3.12	2.11	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	2	38	161	31	19	4	13%	2.5	13.1%	14.8%	-1.7%	4.0%	4.50	6.08	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	2	38	161	31	19	4	13%	2.5	13.1%	14.8%	-1.7%	4.0%	4.50	6.08	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	15	2	38	161	31	19	4	13%	2.5	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	2.5%	4.50	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	7	38	180	32	18	4	70%	3.8	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4%	3.1%	5.45	5.37	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	7	38	180	32	18	4	70%	3.8	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4%	3.1%	5.45	5.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	ARI	10	7	38	180	32	18	4	70%	3.8	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	5.45	4.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	37	0	39	165	35	17	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.68	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	ARI	18	0	19	80	17	8	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	81	17	9	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.30	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	94	21	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		36	13	116	503	82	56	17	36%	3.2	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	22	200	865	141	97	29	36%	3.2	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.98	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeury Espinal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.2%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.68	21.0%	10.5%	39	-0.22	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	92
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	86
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	86
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	85
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	85
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	85
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	84
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	83
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	83
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	83
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	82
Andinson Ferrer R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	19	SW	4.72	17.4%	13.7%	2.5%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.08	4.04	101	82
Alfredo Tavarez R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	19	SW	5.47	22.0%	13.3%	4.6%	.257	4.60	12.0%	-1.4%	110	-0.87	3.67	214	82
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	81
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	81
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	81
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	80
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	80
Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SW	4.03	20.1%	11.6%	2.1%	.375	4.39	16.0%	7.1%	208	+0.36	3.20	246	80
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	20.7%	10.9%	1.16	4.80
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64