Esteban Luna

P FCL Orioles

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 168 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Orioles B…	11	10	43	5.27	3.64	20.6%	11.1%	—	K 14.0% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.07
2026	19	ROKBAL	11	4	27	4.28	4.75	15.2%	15.2%	—	K 10.3% · BB 19.0% · FIP 5.86
2027PROJ	20	MLBBAL	6	6	27	6.32	6.32	12.8%	18.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBAL	4	4	20	5.95	5.83	15.0%	16.0%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 98%

CompsErick Reynoso (age 20) · Denis Diaz (age 20) · Darlin Alcántara (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA6.32

FIP6.32

K%12.8%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%-5.4%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	42	171	41	22	0	100%	3.8	16.3%	16.1%	0.2%	0.0%	1.70	3.76	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	42	171	41	22	0	100%	3.8	16.3%	16.1%	0.2%	0.0%	1.70	3.76	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	42	171	41	22	0	100%	3.8	24.0%	12.9%	11.1%	0.0%	1.70	2.72	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	10	43	199	41	22	3	91%	3.9	14.0%	13.8%	0.2%	2.6%	5.27	5.07	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	10	43	199	41	22	3	91%	3.9	14.0%	13.8%	0.2%	2.6%	5.27	5.07	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	11	10	43	199	41	22	3	91%	3.9	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	1.5%	5.27	3.64	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	27	125	19	19	2	36%	2.5	10.3%	19.0%	-8.7%	2.2%	4.28	5.86	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	27	125	19	19	2	36%	2.5	10.3%	19.0%	-8.7%	2.2%	4.28	5.86	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	4	27	125	19	19	2	36%	2.5	15.2%	15.2%	0.0%	1.6%	4.28	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BAL	6	6	27	114	15	21	3	100%	4.5	12.8%	18.2%	-5.4%	2.9%	6.32	6.32	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	40	170	25	27	5	100%	5.0	15.0%	16.0%	-1.1%	2.9%	5.95	5.83	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	20	84	13	14	2	100%	5.0	15.0%	16.0%	-1.1%	2.9%	5.95	5.83	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	13	13	2	100%	5.0	15.0%	16.0%	-1.1%	2.9%	5.95	5.45	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	131	131	20	100%	4.8	15.0%	16.0%	-1.1%	2.9%	5.95	5.45	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		33	25	112	495	69	79	8	76%	3.4	13.9%	15.9%	-2.0%	1.6%	3.69	4.82	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	45	200	881	122	140	14	76%	3.4	13.9%	15.9%	-2.0%	1.6%	3.69	4.82	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esteban Luna (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.32	12.8%	18.2%	2.9%	—	5.83	15.0%	-1.1%	40	-0.49	—	—	—
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	90
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	89
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	87
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	86
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	86
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	85
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	85
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	85
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	85
Karsen Lindell R 2016 · 7.17 FIP	20	SP-	7.17	4.3%	20.7%	3.3%	.326	6.72	9.8%	-9.2%	54	-0.45	4.94	112	84
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	84
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	83
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	83
Adrian Acosta R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	19	SP-	6.02	7.9%	21.7%	1.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	120	83
Jhonly Taveras R 2024 · 6.59 FIP	19	SP	6.59	13.0%	27.1%	2.1%	.311	5.00	12.1%	-11.0%	34	-1.59	5.00	133	83
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	82
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	82
Jesus Lafalaise R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	19	SP-	5.54	13.0%	22.7%	1.2%	.368	4.19	17.0%	2.6%	147	-1.35	3.53	172	82
Alejandro Chavez R 2019 · 6.79 FIP	20	SP-	6.79	9.8%	20.4%	3.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	109	82
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	14.1%	16.9%	1.13	6.10
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*