Adrian Acosta — OGILVIE

Adrian Acosta P ACL Angels

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%21.5%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	13	7	32	160	37	23	4	54%	2.4	15.7%	18.0%	-2.2%	4.4%	6.25	6.45	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	13	7	32	160	37	23	4	54%	2.4	23.1%	14.4%	8.8%	2.5%	6.25	4.58	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	10	10	46	188	64	22	1	100%	4.6	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	0.9%	1.17	3.48	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	10	10	46	188	64	22	1	100%	4.6	34.0%	11.7%	22.3%	0.5%	1.17	2.04	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	13	8	42	207	24	36	2	62%	3.2	7.9%	21.7%	-13.9%	1.5%	6.26	6.02	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	13	8	42	207	24	36	2	62%	3.2	7.9%	21.7%	-13.9%	1.5%	6.26	6.02	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	13	8	42	207	24	36	2	62%	3.2	11.6%	17.4%	-5.8%	1.0%	6.26	5.16	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	5	0	8	40	4	4	0	0%	1.7	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.24	3.52	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	5	0	8	40	4	4	0	0%	1.7	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.24	3.52	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	5	0	8	40	4	4	0	0%	1.7	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.24	3.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAA	5	5	25	106	23	15	3	100%	5.0	21.5%	14.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.13	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAA	5	5	26	109	24	14	3	100%	5.1	22.4%	12.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.80	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	13	55	12	7	2	100%	6.5	22.4%	12.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	13	53	12	7	2	100%	6.3	22.4%	12.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.42	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	190	111	32	100%	5.3	22.4%	12.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		41	25	128	595	89	105	12	61%	3.1	15.0%	17.7%	-2.7%	2.0%	4.22	5.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	39	200	930	139	164	18	61%	3.1	15.0%	17.7%	-2.7%	2.0%	4.22	5.16	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Acosta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	21.5%	14.5%	3.0%	—	4.80	22.4%	9.8%	26	-0.33	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	88
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	84
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	82
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	80
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	80
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	80
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	79
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	79
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	22.0%	13.5%	1.15	5.01
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82