Adrian Acosta
P
ACL Angels
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%22.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 13 | 7 | 32 | 160 | 37 | 23 | 4 | 54% | 2.4 | 15.7% | 18.0% | -2.2% | 5.8% | 6.25 | 7.24 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 13 | 7 | 32 | 160 | 37 | 23 | 4 | 54% | 2.4 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 6.25 | 4.58 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 10 | 10 | 46 | 188 | 64 | 22 | 1 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 1.17 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 10 | 10 | 46 | 188 | 64 | 22 | 1 | 100% | 4.6 | 34.0% | 11.7% | 22.3% | 0.5% | 1.17 | 2.04 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Angels | 13 | 8 | 42 | 207 | 24 | 36 | 2 | 62% | 3.2 | 7.9% | 21.7% | -13.9% | 1.7% | 6.26 | 6.13 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Angels | 13 | 8 | 42 | 207 | 24 | 36 | 2 | 62% | 3.2 | 11.6% | 17.4% | -5.8% | 1.0% | 6.26 | 5.16 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Angels | 5 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Angels | 5 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 3.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 26 | 108 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAA | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 3.90 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 76 | 30 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 25 | 128 | 595 | 89 | 105 | 15 | 61% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 17.7% | -2.7% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 5.45 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 39 | 200 | 930 | 139 | 164 | 23 | 61% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 17.7% | -2.7% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 5.45 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Acosta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.28 | 23.4% | 14.0% | 27 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 85 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 84 |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 83 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 82 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 82 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.94 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 189 | -0.01 | 3.69 | 348 | 82 |
| Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.37 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 3.84 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 158 | 81 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 80 |
| Ray Gaither R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 80 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 80 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 80 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 79 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 79 |
| Jonathan Petit R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .272 | 5.09 | 15.6% | 2.4% | 113 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 189 | 79 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2024 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 79 |
| Chris Campos R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 1.13 | 4.42 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |