Rubender Pena
P
FCL Rays
Age 21
RHP
5'10" / 183 lbs
ROK
peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 128
ERA5.70
FIP5.70
K%14.4%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%-0.6%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 13 | 10 | 51 | 233 | 45 | 19 | 1 | 77% | 3.9 | 13.1% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 4.91 | 3.62 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 13 | 10 | 51 | 233 | 45 | 19 | 1 | 77% | 3.9 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 0.4% | 4.91 | 2.71 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 11 | 10 | 50 | 205 | 45 | 26 | 1 | 91% | 4.6 | 14.9% | 15.9% | -0.9% | 0.8% | 3.04 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 11 | 10 | 50 | 205 | 45 | 26 | 1 | 91% | 4.6 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 0.5% | 3.04 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 7 | 5 | 21 | 93 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 71% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.64 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 42 | 177 | 26 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.4% | 15.0% | -0.6% | 2.8% | 5.70 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.4% | 15.0% | -0.6% | 2.8% | 5.70 | 5.70 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 63 | 270 | 47 | 35 | 8 | — | — | 17.2% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 44 | 186 | 31 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 46 | 193 | 35 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 37 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 39 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 45 | 192 | 37 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 46 | 265 | 1119 | 213 | 135 | 31 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.53 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 102 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 25 | 123 | 531 | 75 | 66 | 7 | 81% | 4.0 | 14.2% | 12.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 4.10 | 4.22 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 41 | 200 | 863 | 123 | 108 | 12 | 81% | 4.0 | 14.2% | 12.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 4.10 | 4.22 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rubender Pena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.70 | 14.4% | 15.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.08 | 17.9% | 5.2% | 137 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 91 |
| Luis Mateo R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 87 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.31 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .289 | 7.22 | 13.9% | -0.3% | 19 | +1.91 | 3.66 | 117 | 86 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 86 |
| Ryan Degges R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 86 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 85 |
| Jeter Martinez R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.89 | 15.7% | 15.9% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 209 | 83 |
| Ismael Cabral R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.11 | 11.6% | 15.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.40 | 19.5% | 4.1% | 33 | -1.71 | 3.40 | 146 | 83 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 83 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 82 |
| Matt Ager R 2027 · 5.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.81 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 70 | -0.81 | 5.00 | 146 | 82 |
| Henry Williams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.43 | 16.5% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.77 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 293 | -0.66 | 4.06 | 360 | 82 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 82 |
| Tom Robson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.88 | 12.6% | 13.4% | 2.1% | .337 | 4.91 | 12.5% | -1.3% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.17 | 132 | 82 |
| Jose M. Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.01 | 16.6% | 18.1% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.38 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 34 | -0.63 | 4.38 | 106 | 82 |
| Rafael Martinez R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.37 | 15.3% | 14.3% | 3.2% | .366 | 2.50 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 18 | -2.87 | 2.50 | 104 | 82 |
| Wilmer Blanco R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.93 | 14.9% | 16.3% | 3.7% | .364 | 5.18 | 15.1% | 6.8% | 30 | -0.75 | 3.99 | 145 | 82 |
| Jake Madden R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.22 | 15.9% | 15.2% | 2.8% | .299 | 4.57 | 14.1% | -1.1% | 44 | -0.65 | 4.57 | 123 | 81 |
| Abel Duarte R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 81 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 46 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 1.07 | 5.07 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |