Rubender Pena — OGILVIE

Rubender Pena P FCL Rays

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 183 lbs ROK peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%14.4%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%-1.6%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	77%	3.9	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	0.6%	4.91	3.62	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	77%	3.9	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	0.6%	4.91	3.62	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	77%	3.9	19.3%	8.2%	11.2%	0.4%	4.91	2.71	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	91%	4.6	14.9%	15.9%	-0.9%	0.7%	3.04	4.24	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	91%	4.6	14.9%	15.9%	-0.9%	0.7%	3.04	4.24	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	91%	4.6	22.0%	12.7%	9.3%	0.5%	3.04	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	5	21	93	21	8	3	71%	3.0	15.4%	10.8%	4.6%	4.5%	4.64	5.64	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	5	21	93	21	8	3	71%	3.0	15.4%	10.8%	4.6%	4.5%	4.64	5.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TB	7	5	21	93	21	8	3	71%	3.0	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	48	205	34	29	6	100%	4.8	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	2.8%	5.51	5.40	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	50	212	38	28	6	100%	5.6	18.1%	13.2%	4.9%	2.7%	5.24	5.12	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	52	218	41	27	6	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	2.7%	5.06	4.96	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	52	220	43	27	6	100%	5.8	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.94	4.86	+0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	52	220	43	27	6	100%	5.8	19.6%	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	4.88	4.84	+0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	51	217	42	26	6	100%	5.7	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	24	101	17	14	3	100%	4.8	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	2.8%	5.51	5.40	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	37	156	28	21	4	100%	5.3	18.1%	13.2%	4.9%	2.7%	5.24	5.12	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	43	182	34	23	5	100%	5.4	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	2.7%	5.06	4.96	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	46	194	38	24	5	100%	5.8	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.94	4.86	+0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	48	203	40	24	5	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	4.88	4.84	+0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	48	203	40	25	6	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.2%	7.4%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	245	1033	195	130	28	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	2.7%	5.04	4.59	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	159	106	23	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	2.7%	5.04	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		31	25	123	531	75	66	7	81%	4.0	14.2%	12.5%	1.7%	1.3%	4.10	4.21	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	863	123	108	12	81%	4.0	14.2%	12.5%	1.7%	1.3%	4.10	4.21	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rubender Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	14.4%	16.1%	2.8%	—	5.16	17.9%	4.6%	150	-0.68	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	89
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	87
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	86
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	82
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	81
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	81
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	81
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	81
Tom Robson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	22	SP	4.89	12.6%	13.4%	2.1%	.337	4.89	12.5%	-1.3%	105	-0.00	3.23	132	81
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	80
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	80
Ofreidy Gómez R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP	5.17	12.8%	14.5%	2.4%	.266	4.86	14.4%	4.0%	401	-0.31	3.58	663	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	80
Rafael Martinez R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	21	SP-	5.68	15.3%	14.3%	3.8%	.366	2.50	19.4%	11.2%	18	-3.18	2.50	104	80
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	80
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	50	18.2%	13.1%	1.06	5.17
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10