Rubender Pena — OGILVIE

Rubender Pena P DSL Tampa Bay

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 183 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2031

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.7%

IP51

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2031

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	13.1%	10.2%	0.6%	4.91	3.62	+0.8
2025	20	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	14.9%	15.9%	0.7%	3.04	4.26	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	—	51	—	51	214	47	22	6	21.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.45	4.45	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	—	53	—	53	225	51	21	6	22.9%	9.3%	2.8%	4.33	4.25	+0.4
2028	23	MLB	—	55	—	55	233	55	21	6	23.6%	8.8%	2.7%	4.20	4.11	+0.5
2029	24	MLB	—	57	—	57	239	58	21	7	24.2%	8.6%	2.7%	4.10	4.02	+0.6
2030	25	MLB	—	57	—	57	242	59	20	7	24.5%	8.5%	2.7%	4.02	3.97	+0.6
2031	26	MLB	—	57	—	57	242	60	20	7	24.7%	8.4%	2.7%	3.98	3.95	+0.6
2032	27	MLB	—	57	—	57	240	59	20	7	24.8%	8.4%	2.7%	3.97	3.96	+0.6
2033	28	MLB	—	56	—	56	236	58	20	7	24.7%	8.5%	2.8%	3.98	3.98	+0.6
2034	29	MLB	—	55	—	55	231	57	20	6	24.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.01	4.03	+0.6
2035	30	MLB	—	53	—	53	224	55	19	6	24.4%	8.7%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+0.5
2036	31	MLB	—	51	—	51	216	52	19	6	24.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.12	4.17	+0.5
2037	32	MLB	—	49	—	49	208	50	19	6	23.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.20	4.25	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	—	47	—	47	198	47	18	6	23.5%	9.1%	3.1%	4.29	4.35	+0.3
2039	34	MLB	—	45	—	45	188	44	18	6	23.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.39	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	20	102	438	61	56	3	14.0%	12.8%	0.7%	3.98	3.92	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			47	39	200	862	120	110	6	14.0%	12.8%	0.7%	3.98	3.92	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rubender Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	21.8%	10.1%	2.8%	—	4.12	23.6%	14.7%	165	-0.33	—	—	—
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	94
John Klein R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	92
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	91
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	91
Christian Roa R 2027 · 4.94 FIP	22	SW	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	5.00	22.7%	6.2%	260	+0.06	4.35	373	90
Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	90
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	90
Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	89
Alec Barger R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	89
Levi Wells R 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SW	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.54	19.5%	9.7%	110	-0.81	2.08	170	89
Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	89
Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	89
Frank German R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	89
Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.59	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.72	3.45	535	88
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	88
Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	88
Bailey Dees R 2028 · 4.27 FIP	23	SW	4.27	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.37	21.4%	9.6%	278	+0.10	3.41	330	88
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	88
Jack Carey R 2027 · 4.70 FIP	22	SW	4.70	16.8%	10.9%	3.0%	.333	4.28	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.42	3.79	217	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$11M	+$8M