Cole Reynolds — OGILVIE

Cole Reynolds P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%15.6%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	2	60	281	63	39	4	7%	2.1	16.4%	16.2%	0.2%	1.9%	4.83	4.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	2	60	281	63	39	4	7%	2.1	16.4%	16.2%	0.2%	1.9%	4.83	4.80	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	2	60	281	63	39	4	7%	2.1	22.4%	13.9%	8.5%	1.4%	4.83	3.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	12	77	341	76	46	5	52%	3.3	17.2%	15.5%	1.6%	1.8%	6.08	4.62	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	23	12	77	341	76	46	5	52%	3.3	17.2%	15.5%	1.6%	1.8%	6.08	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	23	12	77	341	76	46	5	52%	3.3	22.3%	13.5%	8.8%	1.5%	6.08	3.73	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	6	24	4	4	1	100%	5.7	15.6%	17.6%	-2.0%	2.9%	5.96	5.96	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	83	365	80	50	6	—	—	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.6%	6.07	4.71	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	73	0	76	322	55	50	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	15.6%	1.5%	2.9%	5.67	5.58	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	73	0	76	322	57	48	9	0%	1.0	17.8%	15.0%	2.8%	2.9%	5.50	5.45	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	72	0	75	318	57	47	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.8%	3.3%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	69	0	73	308	56	46	9	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.8%	3.3%	3.0%	5.46	5.49	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	70	294	53	44	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	15.0%	2.8%	3.2%	5.56	5.62	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	276	48	42	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.4%	5.70	5.80	-0.9
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	31	0	33	139	24	22	4	0%	1.1	17.1%	15.6%	1.5%	2.9%	5.67	5.58	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	49	0	51	215	38	32	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	15.0%	2.8%	2.9%	5.50	5.45	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	55	0	58	245	44	36	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.8%	3.3%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	47	38	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.8%	3.3%	3.0%	5.46	5.49	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	46	39	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	15.0%	2.8%	3.2%	5.56	5.62	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	56	0	59	249	44	38	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.4%	5.70	5.80	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		307	0	323	1363	243	205	42	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.1%	2.7%	3.1%	5.55	5.18	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	127	26	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.1%	2.7%	3.1%	5.55	5.18	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		51	14	137	622	105	98	12	27%	2.7	16.8%	15.8%	1.0%	1.9%	5.53	4.70	-5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	20	200	910	153	144	17	27%	2.7	16.8%	15.8%	1.0%	1.9%	5.53	4.70	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Reynolds (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	15.6%	17.6%	2.9%	—	5.49	17.7%	2.5%	228	-0.47	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	90
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	83
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	82
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	79
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	78
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	262	-1.04	3.68	448	76
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	74
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	72
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	72
Tyler Matzek L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SW	5.49	17.7%	23.2%	1.7%	.256	4.73	22.2%	0.9%	21	-0.76	1.60	190	71
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	71
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	69
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	69
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	69
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	68
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	68
Jared Poche L 2019 · 5.93 FIP	24	SU	5.93	13.4%	15.2%	3.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	156	68
Joel Valdez L 2023 · 5.73 FIP	23	SP-	5.73	17.1%	17.4%	3.4%	.266	3.42	22.0%	10.0%	116	-2.31	2.84	324	68
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	68
Luis Moncada L 2022 · 4.88 FIP	24	SW	4.88	13.2%	12.7%	2.3%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	296	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	17.5%	15.4%	1.16	5.61
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59