Nestor Cafe — OGILVIE

Nestor Cafe P DSL Twins

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%21.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	0	14	83	19	26	1	0%	1.3	15.6%	39.2%	-23.6%	1.8%	8.79	7.73	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	0	14	83	19	26	1	0%	1.3	15.6%	39.2%	-23.6%	1.8%	8.79	7.73	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	0	14	83	19	26	1	0%	1.3	22.9%	31.3%	-8.4%	1.2%	8.79	6.80	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	17	0	20	107	20	31	0	0%	1.2	12.7%	36.2%	-23.5%	0.0%	9.30	6.61	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	17	0	20	107	20	31	0	0%	1.2	12.7%	36.2%	-23.5%	0.0%	9.30	6.61	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	17	0	20	107	20	31	0	0%	1.2	18.7%	29.0%	-10.3%	0.0%	9.30	5.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIN	10	0	11	46	10	9	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	20.0%	1.3%	3.0%	5.84	5.84	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	19	14	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.6%	5.7%	2.9%	5.45	5.29	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	16.6%	5.7%	2.9%	5.45	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.6%	5.7%	2.9%	5.45	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.6%	5.7%	2.9%	5.45	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		28	0	35	190	27	71	1	0%	1.2	14.0%	37.5%	-23.5%	0.8%	9.09	7.10	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	0	200	1096	153	411	9	0%	1.2	14.0%	37.5%	-23.5%	0.8%	9.09	7.10	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Cafe (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	21.3%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.29	22.4%	5.7%	20	-0.55	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	91
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	89
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	89
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	88
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	88
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	87
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	87
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	86
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	487	86
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	85
Elison Joseph R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	21	SU	4.91	19.6%	20.3%	1.6%	.310	4.33	24.8%	6.9%	138	-0.58	3.32	217	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	85
Adonis Villavicencio R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SU	4.65	21.5%	21.9%	1.1%	.316	3.93	18.0%	3.9%	90	-0.72	3.21	115	84
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Andrew Marrero R 2021 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	21.7%	22.0%	1.9%	.395	4.61	24.3%	9.1%	148	-0.48	3.45	221	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83