Andrew Marrero
P
FCL Astros
Age 26
RHP
5'10" / 196 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%22.9%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 13 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 22 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 22.0% | -0.3% | 2.0% | 10.12 | 5.18 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 13 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 22 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 18.7% | 10.7% | 1.3% | 10.12 | 3.92 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 32 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 17.0% | 10.9% | 1.2% | 1.27 | 3.54 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 32 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 55 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.7% | 14.4% | 23.3% | 0.7% | 1.27 | 2.14 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 38 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 85 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.3% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 4.93 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 38 | 0 | 60 | 269 | 85 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.6% | 13.4% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 4.02 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 41 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 63 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 13.7% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 6.28 | 4.42 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 41 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 63 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.0% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 3.9% | 6.28 | 4.57 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 0 | 35 | 169 | 47 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.5% | 20.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 5.45 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 0 | 35 | 169 | 47 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 18.9% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | ROK | FCL Astros | 8 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 12% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 36 | 147 | 40 | 17 | 4 | — | — | 26.9% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 3.46 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.48 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 110 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 156 | 1 | 207 | 932 | 227 | 153 | 25 | 1% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.58 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 1 | 200 | 902 | 219 | 148 | 24 | 1% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Marrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.86 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 25 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 88 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 87 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 86 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.63 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.54 | 2.53 | 233 | 84 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 83 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .306 | 3.61 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.24 | 2.88 | 157 | 83 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 83 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 82 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 82 |
| Morris Austin R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 164 | 82 |
| Justin Evans R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 82 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.03 | 1.61 | 124 | 82 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 81 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 81 |
| Derek Eitel R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 81 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 23.0% | 13.3% | 1.16 | 4.86 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |