Andrew Marrero — OGILVIE

Andrew Marrero P FCL Astros

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 196 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%22.6%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	13	0	13	75	22	14	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	22.0%	-0.3%	1.9%	10.12	5.09	—
2021	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	13	0	13	75	22	14	1	0%	1.0	29.3%	18.7%	10.7%	1.3%	10.12	3.92	—
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	32	0	35	146	55	21	1	0%	1.1	27.9%	17.0%	10.9%	1.0%	1.27	3.45	—
2022	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	32	0	35	146	55	21	1	0%	1.1	37.7%	14.4%	23.3%	0.7%	1.27	2.14	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	38	0	60	269	85	36	9	0%	1.6	24.3%	15.4%	8.9%	3.8%	4.05	5.10	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	38	0	60	269	85	36	9	0%	1.6	24.3%	15.4%	8.9%	3.8%	4.05	5.10	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	38	0	60	269	85	36	9	0%	1.6	31.6%	13.4%	18.2%	3.3%	4.05	4.02	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	41	0	53	233	63	29	9	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	3.3%	6.28	4.82	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	41	0	53	233	63	29	9	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	3.3%	6.28	4.82	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	41	0	53	233	63	29	9	0%	1.3	27.0%	12.4%	14.6%	3.9%	6.28	4.57	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	24	0	35	169	47	32	5	0%	1.4	22.5%	20.8%	1.7%	3.2%	5.19	5.60	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	24	0	35	169	47	32	5	0%	1.4	22.5%	20.8%	1.7%	3.2%	5.19	5.60	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	24	0	35	169	47	32	5	0%	1.4	27.8%	18.9%	8.9%	3.0%	5.19	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	1	31	134	40	15	6	4%	1.3	29.0%	13.9%	15.1%	2.6%	5.28	3.84	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	1	31	134	40	15	6	4%	1.3	29.0%	13.9%	15.1%	2.6%	5.28	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	HOU	10	1	13	54	23	6	1	10%	1.3	42.6%	11.1%	31.5%	1.9%	2.70	1.93	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	HOU	4	0	6	31	5	5	2	0%	1.5	16.1%	16.1%	0.0%	6.5%	15.00	7.32	—
2026	26	AA RAW	HOU	10	0	11	49	12	4	3	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	6.1%	3.18	5.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	45	0	47	198	45	31	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.9%	6.8%	3.1%	5.28	5.29	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	46	193	44	30	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	15.5%	7.1%	3.2%	5.27	5.30	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	41	0	44	184	41	28	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	15.4%	7.0%	3.4%	5.32	5.39	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	16	0	17	72	16	11	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.9%	6.8%	3.1%	5.28	5.29	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	26	0	27	114	26	18	4	0%	1.0	22.6%	15.5%	7.1%	3.2%	5.27	5.30	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	31	131	29	20	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.4%	7.0%	3.4%	5.32	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	0	74	314	71	49	10	0%	1.0	22.5%	15.6%	7.0%	3.3%	5.29	4.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	132	27	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.6%	7.0%	3.3%	5.29	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		172	1	227	1026	250	168	30	1%	1.3	24.4%	16.4%	8.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.72	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	1	200	904	221	148	26	1%	1.3	24.4%	16.4%	8.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.72	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Marrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	22.6%	16.5%	3.1%	—	5.33	22.6%	7.0%	136	-0.03	—	—	—
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	82
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	81
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	81
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	80
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	80
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	40	22.6%	15.7%	1.24	5.30
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41