Shane Van Dam

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTFG #538MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	AKC	23	18	93	4.53	3.48	20.1%	6.8%	—	K 14.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.41
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	17	17	90	4.76	4.76	16.9%	8.5%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	9	9	51	4.48	4.41	19.1%	8.2%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBKC	16	16	91	4.34	4.27	20.4%	8.1%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$5M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNick Dean (age 23) · Logan Martin (age 23) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%16.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CMD3045

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	—
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	—
2026	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	93	413	83	28	9	78%	4.1	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	2.2%	4.53	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	17	17	90	380	64	32	11	100%	5.3	16.9%	8.5%	8.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	118	499	95	41	15	100%	5.6	19.1%	8.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	138	581	119	47	17	100%	5.7	20.4%	8.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.39	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	150	632	134	51	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.31	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	148	623	132	50	19	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.1%	13.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.35	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	143	604	127	50	19	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	137	577	120	49	19	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.50	4.56	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	128	543	111	48	19	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	120	506	102	46	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	3.7%	4.83	4.94	-0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	111	468	92	44	18	100%	6.2	19.7%	9.5%	10.1%	3.9%	5.03	5.17	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	51	215	41	18	6	100%	5.7	19.1%	8.2%	10.8%	2.7%	4.48	4.41	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	91	384	78	31	10	100%	5.7	20.4%	8.1%	12.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.27	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	119	502	107	40	14	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.19	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	126	532	113	43	15	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.1%	13.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.23	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	127	536	113	44	15	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.27	4.30	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	124	524	109	44	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.43	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	118	498	102	44	16	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.60	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	111	469	94	43	16	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	3.4%	4.68	4.79	-0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	104	439	86	42	16	100%	6.1	19.7%	9.5%	10.1%	3.6%	4.87	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	163	971	4101	845	349	123	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.09	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	72	25	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	18	93	413	61	33	12	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	885	132	71	25	78%	4.1	14.9%	8.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.53	4.41	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Van Dam (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	16.9%	8.5%	3.0%	—	4.40	20.3%	12.2%	406	-0.36	—	—	—
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	93
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	90
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	89
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	89
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	88
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	88
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	87
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	87
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	87
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	86
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	86
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	85
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	85
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	85
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	128	20.3%	8.5%	1.24	4.57
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Homer Bailey ('20)	7.0	117	19.2%	7.7%	1.12	4.56
Alex Kellner ('48-'59, 14 WAR*)	9.2	154	18.9%*	7.8%*	1.35*	4.50*