Ryan Verdugo — OGILVIE

Ryan Verdugo P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%21.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	8	39	10	8	1	100%	1.9	25.6%	20.5%	5.1%	2.6%	10.57	4.94	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	8	39	10	8	1	100%	1.9	25.6%	20.5%	5.1%	2.6%	10.57	4.94	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	8	39	10	8	1	100%	1.9	25.6%	20.5%	5.1%	2.6%	10.57	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	21	7	89	378	97	62	7	33%	4.2	19.0%	19.4%	-0.4%	2.4%	4.26	5.27	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	21	7	89	378	97	62	7	33%	4.2	19.0%	19.4%	-0.4%	2.4%	4.26	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	HOU	21	7	89	378	97	62	7	33%	4.2	25.7%	16.4%	9.3%	1.9%	4.26	4.03	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	85	0	89	376	84	49	11	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	90	380	87	45	11	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.75	4.65	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	90	380	87	44	11	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.61	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	89	375	86	43	11	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	82	0	86	363	83	42	11	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.1%	4.69	4.72	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	78	0	82	347	78	41	11	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	74	0	77	326	79	37	11	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	3.4%	4.77	4.76	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	36	21	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	57	0	60	253	58	30	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.75	4.65	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	68	0	71	300	69	34	9	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.61	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	72	0	76	321	74	37	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	73	0	77	325	74	38	10	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.1%	4.69	4.72	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	71	37	10	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	68	0	71	300	73	34	10	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	3.4%	4.77	4.76	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		445	0	467	1972	454	231	61	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.34	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	99	26	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		25	11	96	417	82	81	10	44%	3.9	19.6%	19.5%	0.1%	2.4%	4.76	5.24	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	23	200	866	170	168	21	44%	3.9	19.6%	19.5%	0.1%	2.4%	4.76	5.24	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Verdugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	21.9%	15.0%	3.0%	—	4.70	22.8%	10.7%	269	-0.46	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	79
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	78
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	76
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	75
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	75
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	74
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	74
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	74
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	73
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	73
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	73
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	73
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	73
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	72
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	72
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	78	22.9%	11.9%	1.19	4.76
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70