Ryan Verdugo
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%23.1%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 1.9 | 25.6% | 20.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 10.57 | 4.94 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 1.9 | 25.6% | 20.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 10.57 | 5.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 14 | 4 | 56 | 244 | 58 | 46 | 6 | 29% | 4.0 | 17.6% | 22.2% | -4.7% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 6.19 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 95 | 409 | 96 | 62 | 11 | — | — | 23.5% | 15.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.92 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 82 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 18 | 8 | 63 | 283 | 53 | 62 | 9 | 44% | 3.5 | 18.7% | 22.0% | -3.3% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 6.02 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 25 | 200 | 894 | 167 | 197 | 28 | 44% | 3.5 | 18.7% | 22.0% | -3.3% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 6.02 | -1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Verdugo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 23.7% | 14.3% | 40 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 82 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 81 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 80 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 79 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 79 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 78 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 78 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 78 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 77 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 77 |
| Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .289 | 4.91 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 49 | +0.41 | 2.26 | 276 | 77 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 76 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 76 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 76 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 40 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 1.16 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |