Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 6 | 44 | 195 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 50% | 3.7 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 6 | 44 | 195 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 50% | 3.7 | 22.1% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 5.11 | 3.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 7 | 7 | 24 | 104 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 3.33 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 26 | 111 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.7% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 5.07 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | STL | — | — | 51 | 215 | 39 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 18.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | STL | 6 | 6 | 28 | 116 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | STL | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.50 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 148 | 89 | 30 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 13 | 68 | 299 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 68% | 3.6 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 4.42 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 38 | 200 | 875 | 129 | 77 | 23 | 68% | 3.6 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Gómez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.88 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 28 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Jose Cedeno R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 17 | SP- | 4.66 | 15.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .271 | 3.54 | 21.5% | 12.9% | 88 | -1.12 | 2.95 | 123 | 89 |
| Moises Castillo R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 87 |
| Tyler Driver R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.31 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 4.3% | .281 | 5.42 | 15.0% | 2.0% | 100 | +0.11 | 5.29 | 180 | 86 |
| Yohanse Morel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.62 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .350 | 5.11 | 16.2% | 2.7% | 96 | +0.49 | 3.33 | 263 | 86 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 86 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 85 |
| Jose Espada R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.42 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 3.1% | .234 | 5.09 | 9.6% | 3.5% | 53 | +0.67 | 4.39 | 339 | 85 |
| Alejandro Manzano R 2028 · 5.12 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.12 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .347 | 4.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 199 | -0.43 | 4.15 | 269 | 84 |
| Regi Grace R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.92 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .333 | 4.31 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 86 | +0.39 | 3.30 | 224 | 84 |
| Gary Gill Hill R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 18 | SP | 5.07 | 14.1% | 12.2% | 2.9% | .356 | 4.96 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 336 | -0.11 | 4.80 | 373 | 84 |
| Christian Fernandez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 324 | 83 |
| Yeison Santana R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.65 | 14.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .352 | 2.50 | 19.8% | 14.5% | 78 | -2.15 | 1.61 | 129 | 83 |
| Joel Díaz R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.57 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .335 | 5.17 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 174 | -0.40 | 1.98 | 308 | 83 |
| Pedro Reyes R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 11.5% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .243 | 4.52 | 12.9% | 4.2% | 109 | +0.02 | 2.87 | 180 | 83 |
| Pedro González R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.40 | 17.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.96 | 13.0% | -2.7% | 71 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 285 | 82 |
| Victor Munoz R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.4% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .273 | 3.64 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 107 | -0.69 | 2.18 | 260 | 82 |
| Nicholas Economos R 2028 · 4.95 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.95 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .233 | 5.28 | 10.4% | 0.6% | 57 | +0.33 | 4.58 | 223 | 82 |
| Steven Fuentes R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.60 | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.3% | .319 | 3.98 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 131 | -0.62 | 2.36 | 359 | 82 |
| Anthony Escobar R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.44 | 15.1% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .263 | 5.33 | 14.2% | -3.5% | 23 | +0.89 | 3.07 | 122 | 82 |
| Logan Gragg R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 1.14 | 5.00 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |