Alexander Diaz — OGILVIE

Alexander Diaz P DSL Orioles Orange

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%18.9%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	37	172	31	19	2	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	37	172	31	19	2	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	37	172	31	19	2	100%	3.4	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	1.2%	7.47	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	18	MLB	—	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.0%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	6	6	35	149	30	17	4	100%	5.9	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.84	+0.0
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	3	3	17	72	14	8	2	100%	5.7	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	17	73	15	8	2	100%	4.3	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	173	92	23	100%	4.3	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		11	11	37	172	21	24	3	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	59	200	921	113	127	16	100%	3.4	12.3%	13.8%	-1.6%	1.8%	7.47	4.79	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	18.9%	12.8%	2.9%	—	4.84	20.0%	8.5%	35	-0.29	—	—	—
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	87
Carlos Jimenez R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	17	SP	4.07	18.1%	12.6%	1.7%	.324	4.66	20.9%	5.2%	104	+0.59	4.07	257	87
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	85
Claudio Galva R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP	3.97	17.4%	12.6%	1.4%	.255	4.17	15.0%	8.1%	34	+0.20	2.86	113	84
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	83
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	83
Manuel Mercedes R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	18	SP	4.69	16.7%	12.4%	2.6%	.350	4.85	12.5%	-1.0%	303	+0.16	3.79	491	83
Xavier Javier R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	14.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.237	5.97	9.5%	-10.6%	100	+1.50	4.47	188	82
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	82
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	81
Jean Munoz R 2021 · 4.96 FIP	18	SP	4.96	16.1%	16.1%	2.2%	.292	3.91	17.3%	2.4%	82	-1.05	3.23	215	81
Carlos Betancourt R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	15.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.293	3.35	19.9%	10.6%	45	-1.12	3.35	188	81
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	81
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	81
Miguel Mora R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP	4.21	17.9%	11.2%	2.2%	.221	4.89	16.6%	-3.6%	107	+0.68	2.95	151	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	80
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	80
Rafael Garcia R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP	4.65	14.9%	14.0%	1.9%	.288	7.13	16.0%	-0.4%	50	+2.48	4.65	102	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	19.6%	12.0%	1.13	5.00
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99