Alexander Diaz
P
DSL Orioles Orange
Age 18
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%22.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 37 | 172 | 31 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 12.3% | 13.8% | -1.6% | 2.0% | 7.47 | 4.90 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 37 | 172 | 31 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 18.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 7.47 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | — | 4 | 4 | 22 | 94 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 4 | 4 | 23 | 98 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 3.94 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 70 | 17 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 37 | 172 | 21 | 24 | 3 | 100% | 3.4 | 12.3% | 13.8% | -1.6% | 2.0% | 7.47 | 4.90 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 59 | 200 | 921 | 113 | 127 | 18 | 100% | 3.4 | 12.3% | 13.8% | -1.6% | 2.0% | 7.47 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Diaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.32 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 23 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.21 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .337 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.14 | 4.21 | 104 | 84 |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 84 |
| Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.77 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .377 | 3.97 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.20 | 3.77 | 342 | 83 |
| Nelfy Ynfante R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 5.0% | 202 | +0.39 | 3.71 | 274 | 83 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.98 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .331 | 3.00 | 30.4% | 19.8% | 49 | -0.98 | 3.00 | 104 | 83 |
| Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 83 |
| Carlos Naveda R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .297 | 2.63 | 16.9% | 11.7% | 64 | -1.14 | 2.63 | 120 | 81 |
| Adrian Heredia R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.78 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .300 | 5.09 | 15.7% | 2.9% | 81 | +1.31 | 3.39 | 125 | 81 |
| Marco Raya R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 81 |
| Andry Rondon R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 80 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 80 |
| Giussepe Velasquez R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.44 | 17.2% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .329 | 5.67 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 53 | +1.23 | 4.44 | 193 | 80 |
| Luis Valdez R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.51 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .270 | 6.61 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 34 | +3.10 | 3.51 | 102 | 80 |
| Trevor Harrison R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.19 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .331 | 4.72 | 17.7% | 5.1% | 161 | +0.53 | 3.80 | 234 | 79 |
| Jordy Vargas R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.46 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.6% | .239 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 6.3% | 95 | +0.10 | 3.02 | 257 | 79 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 79 |
| Logan Gragg R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 79 |
| José López R 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 78 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 78 |
| Moises Castillo R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 78 |