Manuel Mercedes — OGILVIE

Manuel Mercedes P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 131

ERA6.03

FIP6.03

K%10.0%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%-4.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	13	56	252	62	25	5	93%	4.0	16.7%	12.4%	4.3%	2.6%	5.11	4.69	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	14	13	56	252	62	25	5	93%	4.0	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	2.0%	5.11	3.38	—
2022	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	9	81	370	67	63	7	36%	3.2	13.4%	20.1%	-6.7%	2.3%	5.13	5.78	—
2022	19	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	9	81	370	67	63	7	36%	3.2	18.1%	17.0%	1.1%	1.9%	5.13	4.91	—
2023	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	21	106	467	72	41	2	84%	4.3	11.4%	10.4%	1.0%	0.6%	3.64	3.79	—
2023	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	21	106	467	72	41	2	84%	4.3	11.4%	10.4%	1.0%	0.6%	3.64	3.79	—
2023	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	21	106	467	72	41	2	84%	4.3	15.4%	8.8%	6.6%	0.4%	3.64	3.15	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	26	25	116	526	89	54	13	96%	4.5	13.0%	11.8%	1.2%	3.1%	5.28	5.18	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	26	25	116	526	89	54	13	96%	4.5	13.0%	11.8%	1.2%	3.1%	5.28	5.18	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	26	25	116	526	89	54	13	96%	4.5	16.9%	10.3%	6.7%	2.5%	5.28	4.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	16	91	424	62	49	10	52%	2.9	11.0%	12.7%	-1.7%	2.5%	6.70	5.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	16	91	424	62	49	10	52%	2.9	11.0%	12.7%	-1.7%	2.5%	6.70	5.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	16	91	424	62	49	10	52%	2.9	14.6%	11.6%	3.1%	2.4%	6.70	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	250	42	30	6	0%	1.4	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	2.9%	7.99	5.20	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	250	42	30	6	0%	1.4	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	2.9%	7.99	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	SF	35	0	47	250	42	30	6	0%	1.4	16.8%	12.0%	4.8%	2.4%	7.99	4.52	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	6	24	2	3	1	0%	1.1	10.0%	14.6%	-4.6%	2.8%	6.03	6.03	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	53	274	44	33	7	—	—	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	2.4%	7.78	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	102	0	107	452	59	60	13	0%	1.0	13.0%	13.4%	-0.4%	2.8%	5.71	5.62	-1.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	103	0	108	457	68	58	13	0%	1.1	14.8%	12.7%	2.1%	2.8%	5.47	5.38	-1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	103	0	108	457	73	57	13	0%	1.1	15.9%	12.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.32	5.26	-0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	102	0	107	451	72	56	13	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.4%	3.7%	2.9%	5.28	5.27	-0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	99	0	104	437	69	55	13	0%	1.0	15.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.0%	5.32	5.35	-0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	94	0	99	417	65	53	13	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.8%	2.9%	3.1%	5.42	5.48	-1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	88	0	93	392	60	51	13	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.1%	2.3%	3.3%	5.57	5.66	-1.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	45	0	47	198	26	27	6	0%	1.0	13.0%	13.4%	-0.4%	2.8%	5.71	5.62	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	69	0	72	304	45	39	9	0%	1.0	14.8%	12.7%	2.1%	2.8%	5.47	5.38	-0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	82	0	86	363	58	45	10	0%	1.0	15.9%	12.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.32	5.26	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	87	0	91	384	62	48	11	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.4%	3.7%	2.9%	5.28	5.27	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	88	0	92	388	62	49	12	0%	1.0	15.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.0%	5.32	5.35	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	86	0	90	380	60	48	12	0%	1.0	15.7%	12.8%	2.9%	3.1%	5.42	5.48	-0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	82	0	86	363	56	47	12	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.1%	2.3%	3.3%	5.57	5.66	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		538	0	565	2384	367	302	71	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%	3.0%	5.42	5.04	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	130	107	25	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%	3.0%	5.42	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		156	84	498	2289	294	303	52	54%	3.2	12.9%	13.2%	-0.4%	2.3%	5.40	4.94	-4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	919	118	122	21	54%	3.2	12.9%	13.2%	-0.4%	2.3%	5.40	4.94	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.03	10.0%	14.6%	2.8%	—	5.42	14.6%	1.7%	324	-0.61	—	—	—
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	91
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	84
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	83
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	83
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	82
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	81
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	81
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	77
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	77
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	76
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	76
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	76
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	76
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	76
Jordan Mikel R 2022 · 6.04 FIP	23	SW	6.04	12.8%	11.6%	4.7%	.229	3.65	20.1%	11.3%	115	-2.39	3.04	195	75
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	75
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	75
Shane Watson R 2017 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	237	74
Tom Robson R 2016 · 5.70 FIP	23	SW	5.70	10.9%	16.3%	2.6%	.355	3.23	15.8%	7.1%	35	-2.47	3.23	132	74
Erling Moreno R 2019 · 6.02 FIP	22	SP-	6.02	7.8%	18.2%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	213	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	99	14.8%	12.9%	1.14	5.49
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14