Manuel Mercedes
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153144vR 135
ERA5.99
FIP5.99
K%10.0%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%-4.7%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 14 | 13 | 56 | 252 | 62 | 25 | 5 | 93% | 4.0 | 16.7% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 5.11 | 4.61 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 14 | 13 | 56 | 252 | 62 | 25 | 5 | 93% | 4.0 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 5.11 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 25 | 9 | 81 | 370 | 67 | 63 | 7 | 36% | 3.2 | 13.4% | 20.1% | -6.7% | 2.2% | 5.13 | 5.71 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 25 | 9 | 81 | 370 | 67 | 63 | 7 | 36% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 5.13 | 4.91 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 25 | 21 | 106 | 467 | 72 | 41 | 2 | 84% | 4.3 | 11.4% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 3.64 | 3.84 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 25 | 21 | 106 | 467 | 72 | 41 | 2 | 84% | 4.3 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 0.4% | 3.64 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 26 | 25 | 116 | 526 | 89 | 54 | 13 | 96% | 4.5 | 13.0% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.28 | 5.16 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 26 | 25 | 116 | 526 | 89 | 54 | 13 | 96% | 4.5 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 5.28 | 4.42 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 91 | 424 | 62 | 49 | 10 | 52% | 2.9 | 11.0% | 12.7% | -1.7% | 2.2% | 6.70 | 4.99 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 91 | 424 | 62 | 49 | 10 | 52% | 2.9 | 14.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 6.70 | 4.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 23 | 0 | 30 | 156 | 32 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 7.20 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 28 | 42 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 14.7% | -4.7% | 2.7% | 5.99 | 5.99 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 14.7% | -4.7% | 2.7% | 5.99 | 5.99 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 97 | 439 | 60 | 59 | 10 | — | — | 13.7% | 13.4% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 6.36 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 10.0% | 14.7% | -4.7% | 2.7% | 5.99 | 5.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 38 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 13.6% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 5.68 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 70 | 294 | 44 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.44 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 70 | 294 | 47 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SF | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 47 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SF | 63 | 0 | 67 | 281 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 13.6% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 5.68 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 30 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.44 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 37 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 40 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 40 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 0 | 252 | 1062 | 165 | 137 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.37 | 4.95 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 131 | 109 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.37 | 4.95 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 144 | 84 | 481 | 2195 | 286 | 289 | 45 | 58% | 3.3 | 13.0% | 13.2% | -0.1% | 2.1% | 5.26 | 4.80 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 35 | 200 | 913 | 119 | 120 | 19 | 58% | 3.3 | 13.0% | 13.2% | -0.1% | 2.1% | 5.26 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Mercedes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.99 | 10.0% | 14.7% | 2.7% | — | 5.39 | 14.7% | 1.6% | 208 | -0.60 | — | — | — |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 90 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 85 |
| LJ Brewster R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 82 |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 81 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 81 |
| Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 81 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 79 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.25 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .381 | 6.70 | 10.3% | -5.6% | 47 | +1.45 | 5.25 | 110 | 78 |
| Drew Conover R 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 77 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 77 |
| Dane Myers R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.39 | 12.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 125 | 76 |
| Kendy Richard R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.98 | 12.0% | 16.0% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 141 | 76 |
| Boone Whiting R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 76 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.06 | 12.6% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 144 | 76 |
| Jheyson Caraballo R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.25 | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 101 | 76 |
| Erling Moreno R 2025 · 6.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.08 | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 213 | 75 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 75 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2028 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 74 |
| Danny Flatt R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 74 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.13 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 7.57 | 11.0% | -7.2% | 28 | +2.44 | 5.13 | 204 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 68 | 14.4% | 13.3% | 1.07 | 5.50 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |