R.J. Gordon
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 129 | 539 | 147 | 45 | 15 | 81% | 4.9 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 4.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 129 | 539 | 147 | 45 | 15 | 81% | 4.9 | 27.3% | 8.3% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 3.36 | 3.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 14 | 14 | 42 | 197 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 3.0 | 13.7% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 7.50 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 107 | 471 | 97 | 44 | 13 | — | — | 20.7% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 5.66 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 151 | 636 | 143 | 55 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 151 | 636 | 144 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 148 | 626 | 141 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 136 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 129 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 129 | 546 | 119 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 97 | 36 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 110 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 115 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 113 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 107 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 107 | 641 | 2707 | 605 | 238 | 88 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 74 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 35 | 171 | 736 | 143 | 74 | 23 | 88% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 41 | 200 | 862 | 167 | 87 | 26 | 88% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| R.J. Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.35 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 450 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 84 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 82 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 82 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .314 | 3.66 | 24.1% | 18.0% | 182 | -0.56 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 82 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 82 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 81 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 81 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 81 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 81 |
| Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.93 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.73 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 131 | +0.80 | 3.93 | 983 | 80 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 80 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.10 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.53 | 3.57 | 252 | 80 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 80 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 80 |
| Jeff Hoffman R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.36 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 282 | +0.55 | 2.11 | 1,046 | 80 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .314 | 5.13 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 271 | +1.05 | 3.65 | 514 | 80 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 79 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.81 | 4.15 | 279 | 79 |
| Cal Quantrill R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.04 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.87 | 18.4% | 11.7% | 368 | -0.17 | 2.02 | 1,224 | 79 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.81 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 324 | -0.69 | 3.46 | 572 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 144 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 1.24 | 4.44 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |