R.J. Gordon — OGILVIE

R.J. Gordon P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%22.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL—50

CMD4550

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	129	539	147	45	15	81%	4.9	21.5%	9.5%	12.1%	3.3%	3.36	4.29	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	129	539	147	45	15	81%	4.9	21.5%	9.5%	12.1%	3.3%	3.36	4.29	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	129	539	147	45	15	81%	4.9	27.3%	8.3%	18.9%	2.8%	3.36	3.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	24	95	421	88	42	13	100%	4.0	16.3%	11.5%	4.8%	3.6%	5.59	5.14	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	24	95	421	88	42	13	100%	4.0	16.3%	11.5%	4.8%	3.6%	5.59	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	NYM	3	3	4	19	7	0	1	100%	1.2	36.8%	0.0%	36.8%	5.3%	19.64	2.88	—
2026	24	AA RAW	NYM	21	21	91	402	81	42	12	100%	4.3	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	3.0%	5.03	4.36	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	13	55	12	5	2	100%	6.6	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	108	476	100	47	15	—	—	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.1%	5.46	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	151	636	143	57	20	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.42	+0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	151	636	144	56	20	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.39	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	148	626	141	56	20	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.42	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	144	608	136	55	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.50	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	137	580	129	53	20	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.4%	4.56	4.63	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	129	546	119	52	20	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.71	4.80	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	120	509	109	50	19	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	3.8%	4.89	5.01	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	112	471	99	48	19	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	4.1%	5.09	5.23	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	63	25	9	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.42	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	101	426	97	38	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.39	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	115	486	110	43	15	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.42	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	121	511	115	46	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.50	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	120	507	113	47	17	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.4%	4.56	4.63	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	116	490	107	47	17	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	3.6%	4.71	4.80	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	110	464	100	46	18	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	3.8%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	103	435	91	45	18	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	4.0%	5.08	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	854	3604	796	336	123	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.62	4.30	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	186	79	29	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.62	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		50	45	224	960	185	99	33	90%	4.5	19.2%	10.4%	8.9%	3.4%	4.31	4.67	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	858	165	89	29	90%	4.5	19.2%	10.4%	8.9%	3.4%	4.31	4.67	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
R.J. Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.0%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.41	22.6%	13.6%	450	-0.12	—	—	—
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	90
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	84
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	83
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	83
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	83
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	82
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	82
Thomas Harrington R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	21.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.317	4.48	18.7%	11.9%	314	+0.41	3.33	441	82
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	81
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	81
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	81
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.96	1,067	81
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	81
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	80
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,038	80
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	79
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	79
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	79
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	138	22.1%	9.3%	1.30	4.59
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01