R.J. Gordon

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#925ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	26	21	129	3.36	3.38	27.3%	8.3%	—	K 21.5% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.29
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	24	95	5.59	4.35	20.9%	10.0%	—	K 16.3% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYM	1	1	3	5.04	5.04	18.4%	10.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYM	9	9	52	4.92	4.89	19.5%	10.3%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYM	11	11	67	4.88	4.88	19.7%	10.1%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 3.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsChandler Champlain (age 25) · Carlos Pimentel (age 25) · Nic Swanson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%18.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	129	539	147	45	15	81%	4.9	21.5%	9.5%	12.1%	3.3%	3.36	4.29	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	129	539	147	45	15	81%	4.9	21.5%	9.5%	12.1%	3.3%	3.36	4.29	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	129	539	147	45	15	81%	4.9	27.3%	8.3%	18.9%	2.8%	3.36	3.38	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	95	421	88	42	13	100%	4.0	16.3%	11.5%	4.8%	3.6%	5.59	5.14	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	95	421	88	42	13	100%	4.0	16.3%	11.5%	4.8%	3.6%	5.59	5.14	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	95	421	88	42	13	100%	4.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.1%	5.59	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYM	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	3.2%	5.04	5.04	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	119	503	98	52	16	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.92	4.89	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	106	448	88	45	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.1%	9.5%	3.2%	4.88	4.88	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	98	415	82	42	14	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	3.3%	4.90	4.93	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	91	383	75	40	13	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.5%	4.98	5.04	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	82	346	66	37	13	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	3.7%	5.12	5.22	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	52	220	43	23	7	100%	5.8	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.92	4.89	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	67	283	56	29	9	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.1%	9.5%	3.2%	4.88	4.88	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	61	32	10	100%	6.2	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	3.3%	4.90	4.93	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	61	32	11	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.5%	4.98	5.04	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	70	296	57	31	11	100%	5.8	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	3.7%	5.11	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	338	1427	278	147	48	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.4%	4.96	4.61	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	87	28	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.4%	4.96	4.61	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		50	45	224	960	185	99	33	90%	4.5	19.2%	10.4%	8.9%	3.4%	4.31	4.67	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	858	165	89	29	90%	4.5	19.2%	10.4%	8.9%	3.4%	4.31	4.67	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 91 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.14 (+0.78)K% 20.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.15%	—	×0.810	16.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.100	11.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.58%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 68 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.66 (+0.95)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.03%	—	×0.770	20.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×1.150	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.073	×1.250	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 61 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.86 (+0.87)K% 28.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.74%	—	×0.810	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.07%	—	×1.100	6.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷0.990	×1.200	3.43%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
R.J. Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.90	19.6%	9.4%	324	-0.14	—	—	—
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	83
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	83
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	82
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	82
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	82
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	81
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	80
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Shao-Ching Chiang R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	575	80
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	80
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	80
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	107	19.2%	10.4%	1.29	4.97
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Dave Stenhouse ('62-'64, 2 WAR*)	1.9	124	17.9%*	10.5%*	1.33*	4.51*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Steve McCatty ('77-'85, 6 WAR*)	5.9	149	16.4%*	10.1%*	1.20*	4.49*