R.J. Gordon
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
+1.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.6 · 2028
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.5%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 21 | 129 | 539 | 147 | 45 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 114 | 46 | 16 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 129 | 49 | 17 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 136 | 51 | 18 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 139 | 52 | 19 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 138 | 52 | 19 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 135 | 51 | 19 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 129 | 50 | 19 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 123 | 49 | 18 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 117 | 48 | 18 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 110 | 47 | 18 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 103 | 45 | 17 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 95 | 44 | 17 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 87 | 42 | 16 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 79 | 40 | 15 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 21 | 129 | 539 | 116 | 51 | 18 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 4.31 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 33 | 200 | 838 | 180 | 79 | 28 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| R.J. Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.34 | 22.9% | 14.3% | 417 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 92 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 90 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 90 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 89 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 88 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 87 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 87 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 87 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 87 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 87 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 87 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 87 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 87 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 87 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 86 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 86 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 86 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 86 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.6 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.3 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.1 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $5M | +1.0 | $10M | +$5M |
| Totals | $15M | $74M | +$59M | ||