Francisco Espinoza

C Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 206 lbs A HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKLAD	140	.350/.443/.467	1	0	96	—	.276/.343/.354
2026	19	ALAD	133	.296/.386/.330	0	0	84	—	.269/.341/.294
2026	19	ROKLAD	57	.370/.482/.652	3	1	124	—	.265/.357/.449
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBLAD	300	.222/.294/.313	4	4	73	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	21	MLBLAD	114	.222/.295/.320	2	2	78	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	22	MLBLAD	228	.225/.299/.331	4	4	82	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%75

Chase%57

wOBA46

wRC+44

Whiff%43

BB%42

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsNacho Alvarez Jr. (age 21) · Luis Caicuto (age 20) · Diego Velasquez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 177 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .292 / .310

PA177

HR2

K%25

BB%8

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	56	13	2	0	0	15	11	5	0	0	232	434	268	702	36	283	14	19	346	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	140	120	42	5	3	1	19	17	1	0	1	350	443	467	910	117	402	12	14	409	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	133	115	34	4	0	0	15	26	2	0	1	296	386	330	717	35	378	20	11	332	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	57	46	17	4	0	3	9	12	1	1	0	370	482	652	1.134	283	438	21	16	481	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	61	10	1	0	0	10	13	5	0	0	164	329	180	509	16	199	17	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	140	127	35	3	2	1	12	25	1	0	1	276	343	354	697	79	339	18	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	133	119	32	3	0	0	11	35	2	0	1	269	341	294	635	25	377	26	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	57	49	13	3	0	2	6	17	1	1	0	265	357	449	806	184	342	30	11	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	61	10	1	0	0	10	13	5	0	0	164	329	180	509	16	204	17	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	56	13	2	0	0	15	11	5	0	0	232	434	268	702	36	283	14	19	346	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	140	127	35	3	2	1	12	25	1	0	1	276	343	354	697	79	337	18	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	—	140	120	42	5	3	1	19	17	1	0	1	350	443	467	910	117	402	12	14	409	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	169	45	6	0	2	16	53	3	1	1	266	340	337	678	71	371	28	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	190	161	51	8	0	3	24	38	3	1	1	317	415	422	837	106	393	20	13	377	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	62	10	1	0	0	10	13	5	0	0	161	329	177	506	16	199	17	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	140	126	35	3	2	1	12	25	1	0	1	278	343	357	700	79	339	18	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	169	45	6	0	2	16	53	3	1	1	266	340	337	678	71	366	28	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	77	62	10	1	0	0	10	13	5	0	0	161	329	177	506	16	199	17	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	140	126	35	3	2	1	12	25	1	0	1	278	343	357	700	79	339	18	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	169	45	6	0	2	16	53	3	1	1	266	340	337	678	71	366	28	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	300	270	61	10	2	4	24	76	3	4	1	222	294	313	607	91	292	25	8	276	73	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAD	43%	264	237	54	9	2	4	22	65	3	4	2	226	299	327	626	100	293	25	8	284	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAD	61%	374	336	77	13	2	6	31	91	4	6	2	229	303	337	640	108	293	24	8	290	82	-8	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAD	68%	446	401	92	15	3	8	37	108	5	8	3	232	305	346	651	114	294	24	8	294	85	-8	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAD	70%	494	444	104	17	3	10	41	119	6	9	3	234	307	352	659	118	295	24	8	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAD	70%	520	465	110	19	3	11	44	124	6	9	3	235	308	355	664	121	295	24	8	299	88	-7	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAD	71%	520	465	109	18	3	11	44	124	6	9	3	234	308	355	663	120	294	24	8	299	88	-7	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAD	69%	520	465	108	18	3	10	44	125	6	9	3	233	307	352	659	119	294	24	8	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAD	69%	520	465	108	18	3	10	44	126	6	8	3	231	305	347	652	116	293	24	8	294	85	-9	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAD	67%	520	466	108	18	3	10	44	128	5	7	4	229	302	341	643	112	291	25	8	291	83	-11	-0	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAD	66%	520	467	106	18	3	9	43	129	5	7	4	226	299	333	632	107	290	25	8	286	80	-13	-0	-2	+9	+11	0.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	LAD	65%	491	443	97	16	2	8	40	124	5	5	6	222	294	323	617	101	286	25	8	280	76	-14	-1	-3	+9	+11	0.1
2039	32	MLB MLE	LAD	70%	459	415	89	14	2	7	37	118	4	4	11	216	288	311	598	94	283	26	8	272	70	-16	-4	-4	+8	+10	-0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAD	43%	114	103	24	4	1	2	9	28	1	2	1	222	295	320	616	98	286	25	8	280	78	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAD	61%	228	204	46	7	1	4	19	56	3	4	1	225	299	331	631	106	287	25	8	286	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAD	68%	304	272	63	10	2	6	25	74	4	5	2	228	302	340	642	112	288	24	8	290	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAD	70%	344	308	71	11	2	7	29	83	4	6	2	230	304	346	650	116	288	24	8	293	87	-5	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAD	70%	365	327	76	12	2	8	31	87	4	6	2	231	305	350	655	119	288	24	8	295	88	-5	+0	+0	+7	+8	1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAD	71%	367	329	76	12	2	8	31	88	4	6	2	230	305	349	654	119	288	24	8	295	88	-5	+0	+0	+7	+8	1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAD	69%	361	324	74	12	2	7	30	87	4	6	2	229	304	347	650	117	287	24	8	294	87	-5	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAD	69%	357	320	73	12	2	7	30	87	4	6	2	228	302	342	643	114	286	24	8	291	85	-6	+0	-0	+6	+8	0.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAD	67%	348	312	71	11	2	7	29	85	4	5	2	225	299	336	634	111	285	24	8	287	83	-7	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAD	66%	342	308	68	11	1	6	28	85	3	5	3	222	295	328	623	106	283	25	8	283	80	-8	-0	-1	+6	+7	0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	LAD	65%	320	288	62	10	1	5	26	81	3	3	4	218	290	318	608	100	280	25	8	277	76	-9	-1	-2	+6	+7	0.1
2039	32	MLB CTX	LAD	70%	323	291	62	10	1	5	26	83	3	3	8	213	284	306	590	93	277	26	8	269	70	-11	-3	-2	+6	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3773	3386	766	122	19	72	313	924	41	57	31	226	299	337	637	111	288	24	8	287	83	-76	-1	-7	+67	+82	6.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	131	21	3	12	54	159	7	10	5	225	298	333	631	108	286	24	8	287	83	-13	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6232	5585	1287	209	35	109	523	1517	72	89	50	230	305	339	643	109	295	24	8	291	83	-121	-2	-10	+104	+126	10.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	134	22	4	11	55	158	8	9	5	230	305	338	643	108	295	24	8	291	83	-13	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.9	3,949	71	60	230	300	341	+71	+36	9.7	8.7
/162	664	12	10	+11.9	+6.1	1.6	pk7: 8
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Espinoza (OGILVIE)	20	48→53	34→39	43→48	56	220/292/310	90	292	2	3	25%	8%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2024 · A	21	51→54	40	50	50	241/318/332	91	306	7	13	22%	9%	88	+0.4	240/315/330	90	307	8	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	238/317/323	85	303	7	15	22%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Luis Caicuto 2023 · A	20	51	38→45	46→50	46	241/301/323	82	302	5	7	21%	6%	78	-0.3	211/281/274	63	283	2	5	24%	7%	61	-1.5	197/271/279	82	244	7	8	21%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2019 · A	20	49→47	39→45	48→45	52	232/310/319	87	306	7	11	25%	10%	82	-0.0	216/290/316	100	284	8	6	25%	9%	74	-0.6	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Cam Maron 2011 · A	20	47→57	40	50→40	47	226/291/320	94	287	8	6	23%	8%	74	-0.5	244/314/326	82	314	5	4	22%	8%	84	+0.2	245/318/319	74	316	4	2	22%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Wilfredo Rodriguez 2014 · A	20	48	39→40	47→50	44	231/276/323	91	287	5	5	21%	6%	69	-0.9	235/273/310	75	276	5	6	16%	4%	64	-1.3	240/274/305	65	276	5	5	15%	4%	63	-0.7
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	50→59	42→45	53→60	43	241/287/350	109	301	9	12	23%	5%	80	-0.2	253/301/351	98	299	7	24	17%	5%	84	+0.2	270/312/373	104	312	8	35	15%	5%	91	+0.6
✕Leo Bernal 2024 · A	20	45→50	42→45	47→50	49	220/293/323	103	283	9	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	231/296/349	118	296	13	8	25%	8%	83	+0.1	235/299/362	127	292	15	9	24%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→49	39→50	49→40	45	207/279/288	81	285	6	6	28%	8%	63	-1.3	212/273/295	83	270	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	227/308/323	96	307	7	7	26%	9%	82	+0.0	224/297/299	75	308	5	6	26%	8%	72	-0.7	277/345/359	82	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Jacob Reimer 2024 · A	20	46→49	40→45	44→50	50	217/316/303	86	302	8	5	28%	10%	82	-0.0	226/307/346	120	303	11	9	27%	9%	87	+0.4	226/302/377	150	302	15	14	28%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Luis Santana 2019 · A	20	52	39→45	50	52	244/318/335	91	274	6	10	13%	7%	88	+0.5	225/293/315	90	280	7	8	21%	7%	74	-0.5	214/269/345	131	274	15	8	27%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Juan Fernandez 2018 · A	19	47→57	41→40	48→50	48	226/294/329	103	270	7	6	19%	7%	78	-0.3	206/264/285	79	270	5	4	24%	6%	57	-1.8	239/301/321	82	296	8	9	21%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Sam McMillan 2019 · A	20	48	41→30	47→45	49	228/316/330	102	281	8	6	21%	8%	88	+0.4	213/315/286	73	292	4	7	26%	10%	78	-0.3	207/330/269	62	273	4	7	22%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	47	44→50	49→45	43	230/281/347	117	293	11	9	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/290/369	137	282	16	7	23%	7%	86	+0.3	222/285/355	133	266	16	4	23%	7%	79	-0.1
●Lou Marson 2007 · A	21	47→57	39→40	53→50	46	220/287/315	94	300	6	5	27%	8%	72	-0.7	259/331/356	97	344	6	4	24%	9%	97	+1.1	275/351/366	91	360	6	4	23%	10%	105	+1.2
✕Gavin Cecchini 2015 · A	21	44→54	41→45	48→45	46	213/270/318	105	266	7	7	22%	7%	65	-1.2	256/307/355	99	303	7	5	17%	7%	88	+0.4	265/315/356	91	309	6	4	16%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Yeiner Fernandez 2023 · A	20	52→53	41→40	43→45	46	251/312/352	101	307	9	4	21%	6%	90	+0.6	237/302/319	82	282	6	5	17%	7%	78	-0.3	233/299/299	66	274	4	5	16%	7%	71	-0.6

Francisco Espinoza

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps