Marco Eluscat
P
DSL Padres Gold
+0.1
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'1" / 145 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.7%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 8 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 11.3% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 7.94 | 5.92 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 12 | 11 | 47 | 208 | 58 | 24 | 4 | 19.0% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 5.55 | 4.95 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | — | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | — | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | — | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | — | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | — | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | — | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | — | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | — | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | — | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | — | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | — | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | — | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | — | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | — | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 11 | 58 | 262 | 46 | 39 | 8 | 17.4% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 6.02 | 5.15 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 38 | 200 | 898 | 158 | 134 | 27 | 17.4% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 6.02 | 5.15 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marco Eluscat (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.17 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 98 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Denny Bentley L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 89 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 89 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.48 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 4.51 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.03 | 3.82 | 396 | 86 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 86 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .262 | 5.08 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.45 | 3.63 | 271 | 85 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.97 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.01 | 3.33 | 200 | 85 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 85 |
| Fernando Sanchez L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.94 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 213 | +0.03 | 3.08 | 266 | 84 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 84 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 84 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 84 |
| Hogan Harris L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 84 |
| Vance Tatum L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.07 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.03 | 4.89 | 116 | 83 |
| Jay Groome L 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.54 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.53 | 420 | 83 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2029 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 83 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 82 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 82 |
| Luis Moncada L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.81 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.5% | .278 | 3.88 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 68 | +0.07 | 3.81 | 296 | 82 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.33 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.45 | 3.86 | 327 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $8M | +$5M | ||