Luis Fragoza

OF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

Scout OFP40ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKMIN	169	.217/.353/.297	1	14	32	—	.160/.275/.222
2026	19	A+MIN	58	.295/.431/.318	0	5	91	—	.271/.397/.292
2026	19	AMIN	245	.322/.395/.607	14	15	118	—	.267/.333/.484
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBMIN	449	.231/.299/.381	13	11	91	0.5
2028PROJ31% MLB	21	MLBMIN	123	.235/.304/.391	4	3	95	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBMIN	226	.238/.308/.398	7	6	98	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%80

wOBA78

wRC+76

Speed52

Chase%50

Z-Con%27

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 25, comp-based) · star 10% · didn't stick 65%

CompsNoelvi Marte (age 20) · Luke Adams (age 20) · Hao-Yu Lee (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .296 / .378

PA320

HR9

SB8

K%25

BB%7

ISO150

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	157	116	30	5	1	1	22	35	16	21	3	259	436	345	781	86	358	22	14	370	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	169	138	30	8	0	1	17	40	12	14	3	217	353	297	650	80	293	24	10	308	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	58	44	13	1	0	0	9	18	3	5	0	295	431	318	749	23	500	31	16	356	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	245	211	68	18	0	14	20	66	8	15	2	322	395	607	1.002	284	406	27	8	427	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	36	29	8	4	0	0	4	7	3	4	0	276	417	414	830	138	364	19	11	382	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	125	22	3	1	1	15	43	16	21	3	176	340	240	580	64	236	27	10	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	230	34	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	58	48	13	1	0	0	7	23	3	5	0	271	397	292	688	21	475	40	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	245	221	59	15	0	11	14	90	8	15	2	267	333	484	817	217	380	37	6	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	36	31	6	3	0	0	2	10	3	4	0	194	306	290	596	97	279	28	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	125	22	3	1	1	15	43	16	21	3	176	340	240	580	64	256	27	10	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	157	116	30	5	1	1	22	35	16	21	3	259	436	345	781	86	358	22	14	370	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	253	34	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	169	138	30	8	0	1	17	40	12	14	3	217	353	297	650	80	293	24	10	308	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	339	300	77	18	0	11	23	123	14	24	2	257	338	427	765	170	393	36	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	339	284	89	23	0	14	33	91	14	24	2	313	404	542	946	229	414	27	10	410	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	125	22	3	1	1	15	43	16	21	3	176	340	240	580	64	236	27	10	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	230	34	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	339	299	77	18	0	11	23	123	14	24	2	258	338	428	766	171	386	36	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	125	22	3	1	1	15	43	16	21	3	176	340	240	580	64	236	27	10	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	169	144	23	6	0	1	11	58	12	14	3	160	275	222	498	62	230	34	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	339	299	77	18	0	11	23	123	14	24	2	258	338	428	766	171	386	36	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	449	407	95	19	2	13	29	112	10	11	2	231	299	381	680	150	285	25	6	303	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	31%	394	355	84	17	2	12	27	96	9	10	2	235	304	391	694	156	286	24	7	309	95	-2	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	473	427	102	20	2	15	33	114	10	13	2	238	307	398	705	160	287	24	7	314	98	-1	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	524	471	113	22	2	17	37	124	11	14	3	240	310	403	713	163	288	24	7	317	101	+0	+2	+0	-3	+11	1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	60%	557	501	121	24	2	18	40	131	11	15	3	241	312	406	718	165	289	24	7	319	102	+1	+2	+0	-3	+12	1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	576	518	126	25	2	19	42	135	11	15	3	242	313	407	720	165	289	23	7	320	103	+2	+2	+0	-3	+12	1.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	585	526	127	25	2	19	43	137	11	15	3	242	313	407	720	165	289	23	7	320	102	+2	+2	+0	-4	+13	1.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	586	527	127	25	2	19	43	138	11	15	3	241	312	404	716	164	288	24	7	318	101	+1	+2	+0	-4	+13	1.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	582	523	125	25	2	18	43	139	11	13	3	239	310	399	709	161	287	24	7	315	100	-0	+1	-1	-3	+13	1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	67%	573	515	122	24	2	18	42	138	11	10	2	236	307	393	700	157	285	24	7	312	97	-2	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIN	70%	562	506	118	23	2	17	41	137	10	7	2	233	303	385	688	152	283	24	7	307	94	-4	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIN	73%	548	494	114	22	2	16	39	136	10	3	1	229	298	375	673	146	280	25	7	301	90	-7	+0	-3	-3	+12	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	31%	123	111	26	5	0	4	8	30	3	3	1	235	304	391	695	156	286	24	7	310	95	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	226	203	49	10	1	7	16	54	5	6	1	238	308	398	706	161	287	24	7	314	98	-0	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	298	269	65	13	1	10	21	71	6	8	2	240	310	403	714	164	288	24	7	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	60%	335	301	72	14	1	11	24	79	7	9	2	242	312	407	719	165	289	24	7	319	102	+1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	357	321	77	15	1	12	26	84	7	10	2	242	313	408	721	166	289	24	7	320	103	+1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	369	332	81	16	2	12	27	86	7	10	2	242	313	408	721	166	289	23	7	320	102	+1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	366	329	79	16	1	12	27	86	7	9	2	241	312	405	717	164	288	23	7	319	101	+1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	361	324	76	15	1	11	27	86	7	8	2	239	310	400	710	161	287	24	7	316	100	-0	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	67%	381	343	81	16	1	12	28	92	7	7	1	236	307	394	701	157	286	24	7	312	97	-1	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIN	70%	393	355	82	16	1	12	28	96	7	5	1	233	303	386	689	153	284	24	7	307	94	-3	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIN	73%	398	360	82	16	1	11	28	99	7	2	1	229	298	376	674	147	280	25	7	301	90	-5	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3607	3248	770	152	11	114	260	863	70	77	17	237	307	396	703	159	286	24	7	314	96	-7	+9	-5	-22	+78	5.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	139	27	2	21	47	156	13	14	3	238	309	398	707	161	287	24	7	314	96	-1	+2	-1	-4	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6945	6221	1467	292	24	210	500	1729	165	197	36	236	310	392	701	156	291	25	7	310	96	-13	+16	-7	-38	+136	9.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	137	27	2	20	47	162	15	18	3	235	309	392	701	156	290	25	7	310	96	-1	+2	-1	-4	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frank Isbell'01-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,483 PA	6.8	4,483	13	250	248*	300*	403*	-42	+24	9.5	10.1
/162	664	2	37	-6.2	+3.6	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Willie Kirkland'58-'66 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	148	52	237*	302*	437*	-37	-0	8.1	8.5
/162	664	25	9	-6.3	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.9	3,927	122	84	238	305	397	-24	+0	8.6	7.5
/162	664	21	14	-4.0	+0.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#5Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Fragoza (OGILVIE)	20	30→42	20→48	60→51	35	229/296/378	149	285	9	8	25%	7%	91	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→55	48→50	51→55	44	224/289/369	144	298	16	14	29%	8%	86	+0.3	237/299/368	131	306	15	18	26%	7%	88	+0.5	247/296/385	137	310	14	21	24%	5%	91	+0.4
✕Luke Adams 2024 · A	20	42→39	44→50	53→55	51	201/318/323	122	288	11	21	31%	11%	88	+0.4	207/347/351	144	268	15	19	27%	12%	106	+1.8	200/355/358	159	246	17	19	24%	12%	108	+1.1
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Dilson Herrera 2014 · A	20	44→54	45→55	49→50	41	220/273/347	128	293	12	11	29%	6%	74	-0.5	259/309/398	139	326	14	13	24%	6%	99	+1.3	267/319/412	145	327	15	13	22%	6%	104	+1.4
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	41→42	45→50	49→50	42	206/277/332	126	281	12	8	30%	7%	73	-0.6	219/279/362	143	273	18	5	26%	6%	80	-0.1	214/275/354	140	261	19	5	25%	6%	74	-0.4
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→48	49→60	55→45	47	243/314/397	154	308	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.4	228/301/402	174	307	20	6	31%	8%	98	+1.2	225/308/413	188	297	21	4	30%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	39→49	47→55	50	41	193/269/328	134	304	15	12	39%	8%	69	-0.9	221/286/348	127	329	13	9	35%	7%	80	-0.2	234/300/394	160	319	20	5	31%	6%	95	+0.5
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	49→51	43→60	53→50	45	240/293/355	115	293	11	17	22%	6%	83	+0.1	213/260/318	105	291	9	15	29%	5%	62	-1.4	262/323/475	213	304	29	14	24%	8%	123	+1.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→48	45→55	51→55	44	213/272/340	128	284	12	11	29%	7%	72	-0.7	233/294/390	157	279	18	13	23%	7%	93	+0.8	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2022 · A	20	48→49	45→55	52→50	40	237/268/365	129	269	13	15	18%	3%	76	-0.4	249/287/399	150	313	16	13	25%	4%	91	+0.7	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
●Jahmai Jones 2018 · A	20	49→51	43→50	51→50	43	238/290/350	111	304	9	16	24%	6%	81	-0.1	214/275/316	102	282	8	13	26%	7%	68	-1.0	250/346/426	175	326	16	18	26%	11%	116	+1.4
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Miguel Amaya 2019 · A	20	43	44→50	48→40	45	215/283/328	113	270	12	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/296/343	127	275	13	4	25%	8%	83	+0.1	216/325/362	146	296	16	3	30%	10%	98	+0.3
●Jo Adell 2019 · AA	20	47	52→65	54→50	37	238/286/414	176	325	19	12	32%	5%	95	+0.9	228/279/388	160	328	18	10	34%	6%	86	+0.3	228/290/425	197	264	28	9	26%	6%	101	+1.3
✕Brendan Rodgers 2017 · A	20	43→53	45→50	44→45	39	219/266/338	120	288	13	6	29%	5%	70	-0.9	243/287/379	136	307	15	6	25%	4%	87	+0.4	260/314/400	140	308	15	0	20%	6%	102	+1.0
✕Oliver Carrillo 2023 · A	21	42→28	46→45	52→45	49	210/293/339	129	282	13	7	29%	10%	80	-0.1	187/296/309	122	278	13	4	34%	12%	76	-0.4	158/271/272	114	242	14	3	37%	11%	58	-0.8
✕Brennen Davis 2021 · A	21	48→43	47→50	51→45	43	237/301/376	139	306	15	9	27%	7%	92	+0.7	206/288/340	134	299	15	8	34%	8%	80	-0.2	188/287/362	173	236	23	4	30%	8%	83	+0.0
●Alonzo Harris 2009 · A	20	44→52	46→50	49→60	40	222/276/345	124	295	14	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	209/247/310	101	283	10	12	29%	4%	55	-1.9	234/290/378	144	282	15	35	22%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	39→42	46→55	50	46	197/276/332	135	270	13	8	31%	9%	73	-0.6	186/272/313	127	276	12	8	34%	10%	67	-1.1	196/269/361	165	267	20	12	33%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Sean Coyle 2012 · A	20	41→38	49→50	53→50	44	205/287/362	157	291	15	13	33%	8%	84	+0.1	207/268/354	147	298	16	14	35%	6%	74	-0.5	204/267/368	165	294	22	15	37%	7%	75	-0.2

Luis Fragoza

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps